For some reason, I’m one of the few still sleeping on the Seahawks.
Well, I was one of the ones.
Even though I’m just waking up on Seattle, I’ve long been alert as to what the New York Jets are this season, and what they will be as the year winds down.
Follow me, and let’s dive into my best bets for NFL Week 10.
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Seattle Seahawks’ playoff seed
Like I said, I’m late to the party on Seattle — but it’s time to admit the Seahawks are the real deal.
Seattle is 6-2 after an impressive beatdown of the Commanders in Week 9. It has beaten the teams on the schedule it should beat, while dropping a close one to the 49ers in Week 1 and to the Buccaneers in Week 5. Seattle is first in overall team DVOA, checking in at fourth on offense, second on defense and first in special teams.
The Seahawks’ offense is fueled by the passing attack, which is way more efficient than the ground game. Quarterback Sam Darnold has utilized the weapons on the roster to their full extent. The receiving group is led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba and him alone. He’s at 79 targets, 58 receptions and 948 yards.
The next closest Seahawks receiver is at 33 targets, 24 receptions and just 293 yards.
Seattle addressed the lack of receiving depth at the trade deadline with the addition of Rashid Shaheed from the Saints. Shaheed has 44 receptions with just under 500 yards for a Saints passing offense that’s without a dynamic QB. He’s a deep threat with the ability to take attention away from JSN and the Seattle tight ends. This addition should make the Seattle offense even more dangerous and give Darnold another potentially potent weapon.
Pairing a better offense with an above-average defense should make Seattle a front-runner to have the top seed in the NFC.
Seattle is currently tied with the Eagles and Bucs for the 1-seed in the NFC, but the Seahawks have a much easier campaign ahead. Philly and Tampa Bay both have first-place schedules with tough games to end the season, while the Seahawks have just four games left against teams that I see having a chance against them.
If Seattle can split those four games, it is in the range of 13 wins. I think Seattle has a legit chance to be the 1-seed, and I’m making that wager.
PICK: Seattle Seahawks to earn NFC 1-seed
New York Jets’ win total
The New York Jets are 1-7 after beating the Bengals by a single point in their last game. It took a 14-point fourth quarter comeback against the worst defense in the NFL to make that happen.
At the trade deadline, New York dealt away two of its best defensive players in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Both of those trades were justified, as the return of three first-round picks was too much to pass up. Plus, the Jets defense has been bad with Gardner and Williams this season.
Losing those two doesn’t make the team much worse, but it does zap any belief the Jets are trying to win games over the last half of the season. And some of the younger, productive star players who remain on the team have voiced their frustration that they were either not traded or saw their friends leave the team.
The Jets have punted on the season and the players know it. They are less likely to be emotionally bought into each week and will be counting down the days until the season is over. The Jets have a schedule in which they’d need to win all three games against the Browns, Dolphins and Saints in order to get over 3.5 wins. Lose one of those games, and they’d need an upset to get over this total.
I think the Jets have cashed in this season to prepare for next season. It’s the correct path for New York, but it’s going to mean it won’t be competitive moving forward.
PICK: New York Jets Under 3.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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