Week 11 sets up to be perhaps the best slate of the NFL season so far.
The Chiefs visit the Broncos in a game that will go a long way to deciding the AFC West, while Seahawks-Rams and Lions-Eagles gives us a possible preview of the NFC Divisional Round.
As always, each week, I will deliver my favorite bet from each and every game on the NFL schedule.
Welcome to the Week 11 edition of Will’s Wagers.
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JETS @ PATRIOTS
Jets +13
The red-hot Jets have now won two in a row, and while I don’t expect that number to go to three, this is a lot of points. The Jets are due some turnover luck, having created just one turnover so far this year. It’s ugly but I’m taking the points.
COMMANDERS @ DOLPHINS
Dolphins first quarter -130 moneyline
The Dolphins have played better recently. They’ve also started to do something most teams don’t do — they choose to receive when they win the coin toss. With the Dolphins likely to start with the ball and possibly scoring first and/or getting an extra possession, taking them to win the first quarter is a good bet.
PACKERS @ GIANTS
Jameis Winston longest completion Over 34.5 yards
Veteran gunslinger Jameis Winston — not Russell Wilson — will start for the injured rookie Jaxson Dart in the first game since Brian Daboll was fired as head coach. Winston will push the ball down the field and be aggressive, especially in a game script where he’s likely trailing and throwing often. Winston won’t have the weapons he’s had in previous stops in his career, but I expect a couple of big plays regardless.
BUCCANEERS @ BILLS
Bills -6
It’s been a while since Bucs’ quarterback Baker Mayfield looked like the MVP candidate he was early in the season, and the Bills are coming off of a puzzling loss in Miami. Look for the home team to bounce back and cover.
TEXANS @ TITANS
Under 37.5 total points scored
These teams met in September, and it was only a 6-0 game in the fourth quarter when the Texans eventually pulled away and won 26-0. It looks like backup Davis Mills will get the nod at quarterback for the Texans. Expect another ugly, low-scoring game.
BENGALS @ STEELERS
Bengals +5.5
The Steelers are not the quality defensive team we’re used to seeing under Mike Tomlin, and Aaron Rodgers perhaps is starting to show his age after a subpar performance last week against the Chargers. These teams met about a month ago, with the Bengals winning a back and forth game. I think we get another close one here.
CHARGERS @ JAGUARS
Chargers team total Under 23.5
The Chargers offense has been ravaged by injuries, as its once elite offensive line has been decimated and is now a shell of itself. Maybe not coincidentally, quarterback Justin Herbert has often been under siege often in recent weeks, and now appears to be nursing an ankle injury. It’s hard to expect much offense from this battered group. I like the team total Under.
BEARS @ VIKINGS
Vikings -2.5
The Bears are an incredible +14 in turnovers, the best margin in the NFL, and yet they have still needed a series of improbable comebacks in order to win multiple games. The Vikings are getting healthier, and coming off of a brutal stretch where they played the Ravens, Eagles and had road games against the Chargers and Lions. Look for the Vikings to get back on track this week.
PANTHERS @ FALCONS
Falcons -3.5
The Falcons haven’t been winning many games recently, but losing by a point in New England and then losing in overtime against the Colts on a neutral field are respectable results. The Panthers buried the Falcons 30-0 early in the season in Carolina. I think the home Falcons get some revenge on Sunday.
SEAHAWKS @ RAMS
Seahawks +3
So much at stake here. The NFC West title, the NFC No. 1 seed, and even the MVP race could potentially swing based on this game. The Seahawks have been dominant, and have a clear edge in special teams against the Rams, who just demoted their kicker last week. I’ll take the points in what should be a tight game.
49ERS @ CARDINALS
Christian McCaffrey Over 56.5 receiving yards
A bit of conjecture here, as this market hasn’t opened up yet. McCaffrey was lined at 51.5 last week, and once again went comfortably Over with 66 receiving yards on 10 targets. Expect the books to continue to nudge his number up, but they have yet to nudge it up enough, as he has gone Over his receiving prop every game this year. Anything listed under 60.5 is a good play to the Over.
RAVENS @ BROWNS
Lamar Jackson Under 31.5 rushing yards
Jackson missed practice Wednesday with knee soreness and did not look 100 percent healthy last week against the Vikings. In two games since returning from a hamstring injury, Jackson has averaged just 25 yards rushing per game. Expect the banged up Jackson to rely more on Derrick Henry, and less on his own legs.
CHIEFS @ BRONCOS
RJ Harvey Over 54.5 rushing yards
Harvey has mostly disappointed fantasy football GMs this season, as the much-hyped rookie running back has been on the short end of a split backfield with JK Dobbins. Well, now Dobbins is injured and appears to be out indefinitely, and it’s Harvey’s time to shine. The Broncos will likely give it to Harvey early and often, as they try to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline as much as possible. I like the Over.
LIONS @ EAGLES
Jameson Williams Over 48.5 receiving yards
The young Lions’ wide receiver has seen 6+ targets in three of the last four games, putting up 66, 66 and 119-yard performances. The Eagles have a good defense, but Williams can get to 50+ with his recent increased usage.
COWBOYS @ RAIDERS
Brock Bowers Over 70.5 receiving yards
The Raiders haven’t played since last Thursday, and thus will have ample time to reflect on why Brock Bowers was only targeted three times in that game. Getting Bowers the ball as much as possible will likely be a priority Monday night, and should be doable against a dreadful Dallas pass defense.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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