The Buffalo Bills (7-3) are favored by 5.5 points versus the Houston Texans (5-5) on November 20, 2025, starting at 8:15 p.m. ET, airing on Amazon Prime Video. The expected point total for the matchup is set at 43.5.
The Thursday night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans has all the makings of a primetime battle with playoff implications.
Buffalo, powered by Josh Allen’s dynamic dual-threat play, has helped the Bills post the NFL’s second-ranked offense at 387.4 total yards per game.
Houston, though, brings the league’s stingiest defense into this one. The Texans are allowing just 16.3 points per game and have shown an ability to disrupt even elite quarterbacks. That unit will need to stay sharp, as the offense turns to backup Davis Mills with C.J. Stroud sidelined by a concussion. Mills has been efficient in relief, averaging 283 passing yards in his past two starts.
Both teams are banged up heading into kickoff. Buffalo will be without Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman, while Houston is missing key defenders Jalen Pitre and Jamal Hill.
Even so, the Bills’ ground game could be the difference. James Cook, who’s averaging 96.8 rushing yards per game, gives Buffalo a steady option to lean on against Houston’s aggressive front.
Bills vs. Texans Odds & Betting Lines
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Bills vs. Texans Prediction & Pick
The Buffalo Bills appear primed to overpower the Houston Texans tonight, even with Houston’s recent surge under backup quarterback Davis Mills.
Josh Allen’s dual-threat production should test a Texans defense that ranks first in the league in points allowed. Houston’s top-ranked unit, however, will be without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud as he continues to recover from a concussion. The Bills’ ground game should also be pivotal. Houston’s defense has struggled against the run, giving Buffalo a clear opportunity to control the pace.
- Pick ATS: Texans (+5.5)
- Pick OU: Over (43.5)
- Prediction: Bills 24, Texans 17
Prediction provided by FOX Sports’ Sports AI. Download the FOX Sports App for free access to Sports AI.
How to Watch Buffalo vs. Houston
- Game date: Thursday, November 20, 2025
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: NRG Stadium
- Location: Houston, Texas
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Live Boxscore: FOX Sports
Bills vs. Texans Recent Matchups
- Houston owns a 3-1 record against Buffalo in their last four matchups.
- Over their last four head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has scored 92 points, while Houston has accumulated 65.
Buffalo Betting Info
- Buffalo is 5-5-0 against the spread this season.
- The Bills have been favored by 5.5 points or more seven times this season, and covered the spread in three of those matchups.
- Buffalo games in 2025 have gone over the point total five times in 10 opportunities (50%).
- When playing as moneyline favorites, the Bills have won 62.5% of the time (5-3).
- Based on this game’s moneyline, the Bills’ implied win probability is 72.1%.
Buffalo’s Key Players
Offense
- Josh Allen has passed for 2,456 yards (ninth in the NFL), 18 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and seven interceptions this year. He averages 245.6 yards per game and 8.4 per attempt, while completing 69.6% of his attempts.
- He has added 351 rushing yards (35.1 per game) and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
- James Cook’s rushing statline this season includes 968 yards (second in the NFL) and seven TDs. He is averaging 96.8 yards per game and 5.3 per attempt (fifth in the NFL).
- Cook’s 23 targets through the air have resulted in 21 catches (2.1 per game) for 190 yards (19.0 per game) and one touchdown.
- Dalton Kincaid has four touchdown catches this season, and has 29 receptions for 448 yards on 36 targets, while averaging 3.6 catches and 56.0 yards per game.
- Khalil Shakir has racked up 454 receiving yards and three touchdowns with 46 catches on 61 targets. He’s averaging 4.6 receptions and 45.4 yards per game.
Defense
- On the defensive side, Cole Bishop has 54 tackles, 3.0 TFL, two sacks, and three interceptions in 2025. His tackle total leads the Bills.
- Terrel Bernard has 52 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and one interception this season.
- This season, Joey Bosa has recorded 4.0 sacks (first on the Bills) as well as 7.0 TFL and 24 tackles.
- Greg Rousseau has 3.0 sacks (second on the Bills) to go with his 3.0 TFL and 29 tackles this year.
Houston Betting Info
- Houston has covered the spread in a game four times this year (4-6-0).
- This year, three Houston games have gone over the point total.
- The Texans have been underdogs in four games this season and won one (25%) of those contests.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Texans have a 32.3% chance to win.
Houston’s Key Players
Offense
- C.J. Stroud is averaging 7.0 passing yards per attempt (18th in the NFL) and 212.8 yards per game this year, completing 66.5% of his passes on the way to 1,702 total yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions through eight games.
- He’s added 189 yards on the ground (third on the Texans), with zero rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 23.6 yards per game and 6.5 per attempt.
- Nico Collins has 49 catches for 642 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 82 times and averages 5.4 receptions per game in nine games played.
- Woody Marks is averaging 34.8 rushing yards per game this season (348 total yards), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
- Marks has helped in the passing game, picking up 190 receiving yards (19.0 per game) on 16 catches (1.6 per game), while being targeted 25 times. He has two receiving touchdowns.
- Nick Chubb puts up 41.9 rushing yards per game over 10 games (419 total yards), with two rushing touchdowns.
Defense
- Will Anderson Jr. has 30 tackles, 12.0 TFL, eight sacks, and two passes defended in 2025.
- Danielle Hunter has 9.0 sacks (first on the Texans and fourth in the NFL) to go with 9.0 TFL and 31 tackles.
- During the 2025 season, Kamari Lassiter has 58 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and two interceptions through 10 games.
- Azeez Al-Shaair has put up 1.0 TFL and 65 tackles over 10 games.
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