The SEC will appeal to the public betting masses in college football Week 12 odds, and it should, with Oklahoma–Alabama and Texas–Georgia.
But when you get a popular traditional Big Ten power, playing at one of the most iconic venues in American sports, that’ll get traction as well.
Such is the case with the Big Noon Kickoff on FOX between Michigan and Northwestern.
“It’s at Wrigley Field, which is kind of fun,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “It’ll be an exciting game, at least if you’re a fan of defense.”
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on the aforementioned matchups and more, as we dive into this week’s college football betting nuggets.
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Stuck in the Middle
Feazel often refers to needing a Super Bowl middle: A favorite to win, but an underdog to cover the spread.
That’s becoming the preferred outcome for both of the aforementioned SEC matchups. Particularly in what early action suggests is the bigger game: No. 10 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia.
“This will be one of our biggest-bet games of the week,” Feazel said.
Texas is 7-2 straight up (SU), but has been dreadful for bettors at 2-7 against the spread (ATS). Georgia is 8-1 SU and a sub-par 4-5 ATS. Caesars opened the Bulldogs as 5.5-point home favorites, and the line was up to Georgia -6 as of Wednesday night.
“This game really has Playoff written all over it,” Feazel said. “If Texas loses, the CFP doors might shut. If Texas wins, it gets more interesting. So far, it’s two-way action.
“Texas bettors are looking at the moneyline, and Georgia fans are taking the -6. We’ll need Georgia to win and not cover.”
Feazel also noted that sharp bettors are on the Under, at 49.5 and 49, with the total at 48.5 midweek.
Like Texas, No. 11 Oklahoma is in less a position to take a loss than No. 4 Alabama, though both teams probably can’t afford to lose. The Sooners are 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS, while the Crimson Tide are 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS and on an eight-game win streak (6-2 ATS).
Alabama opened as a 6.5-point home favorite and is down to -6 midweek.
“The action is reflecting that, well. We’re seeing more early betting on Oklahoma,” Feazel said, though he expects that trend to significantly shift. “We get a lot of action on Alabama on game day. I expect we’ll see much more ‘Bama money by then.
“We’ll probably need Alabama to win and Oklahoma to cover.”
College Football Rocks on FOX
As Feazel alluded to above, Michigan and Northwestern have fielded solid defenses this season. The Wolverines (7-2 SU/3-6 ATS) allow an average of just 17.2 points per game, 13th in the nation, while the Wildcats (5-4 SU/5-3-1 AT) allow 19.1 points per game, 22nd in the nation.
Caesars opened No. 18 Michigan as a 10-point favorite in a quasi-neutral-site game at Wrigley Field, with Northwestern’s campus a stone’s throw away. On Wednesday night, the Wolverines were up to -11.5 (-118) for Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX.
“There are people taking Northwestern early, but it’s more two-way action,” Feazel said. “Michigan hasn’t broken out or surprised anybody this year. But come game day, the bigger bettors will come in on Michigan. We’re gonna need Northwestern to keep it close.”
Caesars saw some early Under play on the total, too, though it’s actually climbed from 40.5 to 41.5. And Feazel said he expects the public to weigh in on the Over leading up to kickoff.
On Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is 3-1 the past four weeks in this space, winning on Iowa +6.5 in Week 10. The Hawkeyes covered the number and nearly upset Oregon, but fell short 18-16.
This week, he’s going back to the SEC with the Texas-Georgia clash. The Bulldogs beat the Longhorns twice last season: 22-19 in overtime, in last year’s SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, and 30-15 on the road in the regular season.
Stone noted that Georgia was the underdog in both of last season’s wins, but finds itself a 5.5-point favorite this time around. Stone is backing the Bulldogs for a third straight win and cover against the visiting Longhorns.
“Texas was fortunate to win its previous two conference road games, at Kentucky and at Mississippi State, both in overtime,” Stone said. “I think the Longhorns’ luck runs out between the hedges, against a solid Georgia team seeking its sixth consecutive victory.”
More Wants and Needs
If you’re riding a trend that’s hitting at 66%, then you’re making money. Bettors playing the Over in South Florida games have done just that this season.
The Over is 6-3 in USF contests, including 6-1 in the Bulls’ last seven games. South Florida has scored 48 points or more in five of its last six outings.
That’s a concern for Caesars on Saturday, when No. 24 South Florida travels to Navy for a noon ET start. The total opened at a healthy 64.5 and remains there, among the highest in college football Week 12 odds.
“USF scores a hundred points a game, and bettors are really watching that,” Feazel said.
Well, not quite a hundred, but a lot. The Bulls average 42 points a game, fifth in the nation, while giving up 24.2.
“We’re gonna need the Under there,” Feazel said.
Another notable need: No. 22 Pittsburgh to at least cover the spread, when it hosts No. 9 Notre Dame, also at noon ET Saturday.
“Bettors are all over Notre Dame in this one. The line has gone from Notre Dame -10.5 to -12.5,” Feazel said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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