When Oklahoma vs. Alabama and Texas vs. Georgia are on the menu, bettors’ appetites are plenty large by midweek and ravenous by Saturday.
But what about when there’s no real marquee matchup?
Well, at some point, one game evolves to that level. In the case of college football Week 13 odds, that game could be USC vs. Oregon.
“It’s weird to say it, but USC-Oregon might be the Game of the Week,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
And at second blush, it is a good game. There’s plenty on the line for both teams.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on that matchup and more, as we dive into this week’s college football betting nuggets.
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Pac-12, er, Big Ten Showdown
You can forgive people who see USC vs. Oregon and think: “What a great Pac-12 matchup this late in the season.” It’s still hard to get used to these two teams battling in the Big Ten instead.
But that’s the case in Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. And while the seventh-ranked Ducks are firmly in the CFP picture, it’s worth reminding that the No. 15 Trojans also have a CFP path.
It’s a difficult path, requiring a win this weekend, then beating UCLA in the regular-season finale, and getting some help from others in the Big Ten. But it’s a path nonetheless.
Oregon is 9-1 straight up (SU) and 5-4-1 against the spread (ATS), while Southern Cal is 8-2 SU/5-5 ATS. Caesars Sports opened the Ducks as 9.5-point home favorites, and the line went to -10 on Monday, then Tuesday returned to -9.5, where it remained Wednesday night.
“This is USC’s Super Bowl at this point. And so far, it’s a little bit surprising, but we are taking more USC money, on the spread and the moneyline,” Feazel said.
That moneyline action shows there are some who believe the Trojans can pull a big outright upset. But by Saturday, Feazel expects Ducks money to overshadow what’s landed on USC so far.
And there will be a decision on the total, too, which is at 59.5, a tick below the 60 opener.
“Between these two teams, with the history they have and the explosive offenses, we’ll likely need the Under and USC to cover the spread,” Feazel said.
College Football Rocks on FOX
In Week 13, you can start your Saturday on FOX with the Big Noon Kickoff and end it on FOX, as well, with a key Big 12 showdown.
Top-ranked Ohio State is quietly going about its business, sitting at 10-0 SU. Furthermore, bettors are making bank on the Buckeyes, who are a nation-leading 8-1-1 ATS.
Meanwhile, Rutgers is a middling 5-5 SU and ATS, though the Scarlet Knights are 2-1 SU and ATS in their last three games. But that’s not swaying oddsmakers much.
Caesars opened Ohio State as a massive 33.5-point home favorite for a noon ET start. The line actually dipped as low as Buckeyes -30.5 on Monday, before settling in at -31.5, where it remained Wednesday night.
“Ohio State is the unquestioned No. 1, and every game has a big spread,” Feazel said. “Ohio State hasn’t been extra flashy. They just kind of wear you down.”
Still, despite that ability and the Buckeyes’ superb ATS record, the big number is scaring off early bettors.
“Thirty-one points is not something the average bettor wants to lay. But we are seeing a little more Ohio State money,” Feazel said.
It’s also worth reminding that Ohio State might be looking ahead to next week’s massive road game vs. Michigan.
At 8 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX, No. 11 BYU (9-1 SU/7-3 ATS) visits Cincinnati (7-3 SU/6-4 ATS). The Cougars need a win to stay on track in the Big 12 and remain in the CFP chase, as well.
So far this week, BYU (9-1 SU/7-3 ATS) has bounced between -2.5/-2 at Caesars, and the line was -2.5 on Wednesday night.
“We’re seeing more BYU money come in, and I don’t see that quitting by Saturday,” Feazel said.
On Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is 4-1 the past four weeks in this space, riding Georgia -5.5 in Week 12, when the Bulldogs drilled Texas 35-10. In Week 13 odds, he’s on a key ACC matchup: Pitt vs. Georgia Tech.
The Yellow Jackets (9-1 SU/6-4 ATS) are 2.5-point home favorites vs. the Panthers (7-3 SU and ATS). Stone likes Georgia Tech to prevail by a field goal or more.
“With Georgia Tech favored by 2.5 points on its home field, the line infers that Pitt would be favored by 1.5 on a neutral field, and I just don’t see that,” Stone said. “I’ll take the home team with a sixth-year senior quarterback, Haynes King, over the team starting a true freshman quarterback in Mason Heintschel on the road.”
Boomer Sooner
Oklahoma (8-2 SU/6-4 ATS) is now No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings. To stay there, though, the Sooners need to keep winning, as they did last week in upset fashion at Alabama.
The next challenge is a noon ET Saturday home game vs. No. 22 Missouri (7-3 SU/6-4 ATS). Caesars opened Oklahoma as a 9.5-point favorite, but by Monday afternoon, the spread was down to Sooners -7.5, where it remained on Wednesday night.
That’s despite Tigers QB Beau Pribula being listed as doubtful, as he continues recovering from a dislocated ankle. Pribula is expected to miss his third straight game.
“These are two good defensive teams,” Feazel said, while noting the total is just 41.5, after opening at 42.5. “Action-wise, we’re seeing a little more Oklahoma money. I’d anticipate that trend to continue.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
A five-figure futures bet with a healthy six-figure potential payout landed at Hard Rock Bet. A customer pushed in $40,000 on Georgia +1000 to lift the trophy on Jan. 19, at the aptly named Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
The Bulldogs (9-1) are currently No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings, well on track for a bid in the 12-team Playoff.
One element potentially working in this bettor’s favor: rest.
Georgia has two games remaining, but is already done with SEC play. The Bulldogs almost certainly will make the CFP, even though they might not play in the SEC championship game.
Missing the SEC final could be helpful to Georgia and the Hard Rock high-roller. The Bulldogs would get three weeks off before the CFP begins on Dec. 19 and perhaps even a month off if they remain in the top four and get a bye.
Either way, Georgia would be well-rested. And if Kirby Smart’s squad wins its third national title in five years, then the bettor pockets $400,000 in profit, for a $440,000 total payout.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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