We’ve finally arrived at the greatest weekend on the college football calendar.
As sad as it might be that the college football regular season is about to end, we’ve got a lot of exciting matchups across the nation this weekend. Of course, “The Game” between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 15 Michigan headlines the weekend slate. But five other games between teams were ranked in the most recent College Football Playoff poll, and there are several more games with CFP implications.
As FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt prepares to call Saturday’s Ohio State-Michigan game for “Big Noon Saturday,” let’s take a look at his thoughts on the matchup and his picks for the biggest games of the weekend.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, Noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)
Klatt’s thoughts: “I think it’s important to understand how these two programs have built themselves. Ohio State has built themselves as a program that can perennially contend and potentially win national championships. They were able to do that a year ago. Michigan, on the other hand, since COVID, under Jim Harbaugh, decided to specifically target and build themselves to match up with and beat Ohio State, which they’ve now done four straight times.
“Obviously, you would say Ohio State has the advantage from the skill and speed perspectives. At least in the last four years, Michigan’s had the advantage in the trenches. They’ve been able to be more physical, particularly along the defensive line.
“Michigan wants a game that’s close in the second half so it can continue to lean into that physical nature. Everything that their built on is from that physical nature — defensively and offensively. Whenever I talk to anyone in that building, all they talk about is, ‘Give us a chance and make it a close game in the fourth quarter.’ They feel like that toughness will pay off for them in the fourth quarter, which it has in the last four years. Now, maybe it didn’t kill Ohio State with the run game over the last two years in the fourth quarter like they did ‘21 and ’22, but they were good enough and they got enough conversions late in order to get scores to win the game.
“Candidly, I don’t care what the line is in this game. This is a much better version of Michigan that went to Columbus last year and beat the eventual national champions. It would shock me if this game wasn’t close late, which is exactly what Michigan wants. By the way, the forecast is exactly what Michigan wants as well: 30s and 50% chance of snow.
Will Michigan beat Ohio State for the fifth year in a row? 🤔
“On the injury front, both programs are dealing with injuries. On the Ohio State side, it’s nickel back Lorenzo Styles. Obviously, the two big ones, wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, didn’t play last week. I remain optimistic that both of those guys will be on the field. … I think the question for me is more about effectiveness than availability.
“On the Michigan side, it does feel like running back Jordan Marshall, who hurt his shoulder against Northwestern, I think is probably going to be on the field. I’m optimistic that he will play. Again, effectiveness rather than availability. I think it’s more of a pain tolerance deal with Jordan Marshall. … But I think a bigger question is tight end Max Bredeson. I know he doesn’t touch the football a lot, but when you try to lean into the physical nature, you’re going to rely on the guy that epitomizes physical nature. That’s Max Bredeson. If you watch Michigan at all, you would know that Bredeson is as important a player to their offense as anybody. It’s because of his threat as a blocker. Wherever he’s going, the ball follows. He was in a boot and on crutches after the Maryland game.
“When Michigan has the ball, they’re at their best when they’re able to establish the run to allow their young quarterback Bryce Underwood to throw off the run game — whether it’s him getting outside the pocket, utilizing those movement throws. They’re not as good when he’s working in a box, he doesn’t have the RPO or play action and he just has to sit there as a dropback passer. Plus, that’s a matchup that’s really tough for a young quarterback. This is an Ohio State defense that disguises its defense as much as anybody. They also match in coverage as well as anybody. … So, Michigan cannot get into a situation where it’s a dropback game.
“When Ohio State has the ball, here’s the key for them: be yourself. Last year, I feel like they got sucked into trying to win the toughness battle and they weren’t going to do that against Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham. Michigan was able to just sit there in what I would consider to be a very safe pass defense. … Now, they don’t have Grant and Graham anymore. Will they have to commit resources to stop the running game of Ohio State? That’s No. 1. Question No. 2 is what kind of a gameplan are Brian Hartline and Ryan Day going to use in this ballgame? If they’re themselves and they attack on the outside and down the field, that would be an advantage for Ohio State. They didn’t do that a year ago.
“It’s going to be a great game.”
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Klatt’s thoughts: “Texas scored 52 points against Arkansas last week, but they also gave up 37. I think that’s a problem. Arkansas is terrible. They’ve lost nine games in a row. Getting yourself right against Arkansas doesn’t do much for me. However, this recent trend of poor defense from Texas is concerning, specifically when you think about what A&M has done when they’ve been on the road this year. There’s been no better offensive football team in the Power 4 than Texas A&M when they’ve played on the road. They’ve scored 35-plus in almost every single game they’ve played on the road. This offense, even though they were quiet in the first half against South Carolina, can be very explosive right away.
Can Texas A&M beat Texas and secure a spot in the SEC Championship? 🤔
“I think Texas A&M is going to be able to score points in this game because the recent trend of Texas’ defense hasn’t been great. When Texas has the ball, if you look at when Texas has struggled this year, it’s when they’ve been unable to protect the quarterback. The run game hasn’t been great all year, and I know that A&M’s run defense is not particularly strong, but does it matter in a game when Texas is not great running the football? Meanwhile, the pass defense and the pass rush for the Aggies are elite.”
Pick: Texas A&M 38, Texas 28 (Texas A&M -2.5)
No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Klatt’s thoughts: “Oregon looks like a team on a mission right now. We saw that last week against USC. I really like what they’ve been able to do, particularly as they get better and more stout in their defensive front seven. … They’ve got great length, the edges are fantastic and when you look at what Washington has done offensively against the best defenses they’ve face this year, it hasn’t been much. The three best defenses they’ve faced this year were Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. … It scored 10 against Wisconsin and under 10 against Michigan and Ohio State. That, to me, is a struggle and a trend that might continue.
“Washington is banged up at the skill positions. Running back Jonah Coleman and wide receiver Denzel Boston are both battling injuries. They both barely played in the win last week against UCLA. Oregon was great against USC’s run game. They held them to 52 rush yards. That’s the second-fewest against a Lincoln Riley team.
“We’ve seen Oregon quarterback Dante Moore come up big in tough road environments. … I’m going to take Oregon in this game.”
Pick: Oregon 28, Washington 17 (Oregon -6.5)
No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech (at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Klatt’s thoughts: “Lately, in November, Georgia has turned it on and they’ve been very good. If Georgia loses this game, they could lose out on a bye. Georgia could also still make the SEC Championship Game. So, everything’s on the line for Georgia, plus let’s not forget that they played that incredibly difficult, multiple overtime game against Georgia Tech last week. So, I think the Bulldogs will be giving their full attention to this game.
Ohio State and Georgia in Joel Klatt’s top 15 😮💨
“Georgia Tech is in a bit of a tailspin to finish the year. Georgia Tech has lost two of its last three. Its defense has been really bad. The only win was a last-second win over Boston College, who has one win this year. The Tech defense has allowed 41 points per game over the last three. Georgia is rounding into form.”
Pick: Georgia 35, Georgia Tech 21 (Georgia -13.5)
No. 12 Miami (Fla.) at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, Noon ET)
Klatt’s thoughts: “Miami needs to win in order to keep pace and keep their playoff hopes alive. Pitt still has a shot at an ACC Championship Game. Miami has been surging over the last three games to make their case for the playoff. I like the way they’ve been playing.
“Pitt took care of Georgia Tech on the road last week. They ran for over 200 yards. Miami’s defense has looked vulnerable in the run game. They allowed 235 rush yards on seven per carry against Virginia Tech when you strip out sack yards. Again, matchups and trends. We’ve got to look at these things.
“Then, you look at the weather. Miami is 3-6 on the road in November under Mario Cristobal. Are we due for that loss here? Might come at the hands of Pitt and in a situation that Miami never finds itself in. Here’s the weather: low 30s, but it doesn’t look like it’ll snow. Miami hasn’t played a game that cold since 2013 at Pitt.
“Do I love Carson Beck in a gross weather, bad field game? No.”
Pick: Pitt 24, Miami 21 (Pitt +6.5)
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Klatt’s thoughts: “The Iron Bowl is phenomenal. Auburn is obviously reeling and Bama has to win this game to get into the playoff. They lose this, they’re out. All the stakes are on the line for Kalen DeBoer. Trust me when I say this, all the goodwill he was able to build up after that Florida State loss started to go out of the window when they lost to Oklahoma. If they lost to Auburn, watch out.
Should Notre Dame be ranked ahead of Alabama? 🤔
“I said Oklahoma was a bad matchup for Alabama a couple of weeks ago and we were right. Auburn is not a bad matchup. In fact, it’s a great matchup for Alabama. Auburn isn’t a good football team. They’re a talented team, but not a good football team. … Auburn is not a dynamic pass defense, and that bears out in the numbers. They’re 100th in the nation at defending the pass. That’s a terrible matchup when you’re facing a team that doesn’t care if they run the football at all.
Pick: Alabama 32, Auburn 21 (Alabama -5.5)
Klatt’s thoughts: “The distraction bowl of all distraction bowls. What’s Lane Kiffin going to do after the Egg Bowl? I hate that we’re talking about this. I feel bad for the Ole Miss players coming into this. They’re thrown into this because their coach won’t sign an extension.
“Part of dragging this out is the distraction for his team in preparing for a rivalry game that might be close. Distractions are the quickest way to be defeated. Now, is Mississippi State good enough to beat Ole Miss? Probably not. Ole Miss has an outside shot at the SEC Championship Game. More importantly, they’ve got to win this one to get included in the playoff. If they lose the Egg Bowl, go to 10-2 and Lane decides to leave, I think the committee has got an easy out [to exclude Ole Miss].
Joel Klatt on Ohio State vs. Michigan, Notre Dame & Miami, Lane Kiffin
“Mississippi State has given some teams problems this year in Starkville. They beat Arizona State. They lost in overtime to Tennessee and Texas. They’ve lost six of their last seven. What I like about Ole Miss is that they can lean into the run game. Running back Kewan Lacy is amazing. He averages 100 yards per game. He’s got 19 touchdowns, that’s tied for the most in college football. Mississippi State is 120th in the country in run defense.
Pick: Ole Miss 34, Mississippi State 27 (Ole Miss -6.5)
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