After erasing a 21-point deficit to beat the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles this past Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) now host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) on Thanksgiving Day.
It’s as close to a must-win game as there is.
Legendary Las Vegas bookmaker Chris Andrews told me years ago, “If you must win, you must not be that good,” and that certainly resonates here.
Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of O/U 50.5. Multiple sportsbooks wrote Dallas money from +3.5 to +3 and respected Over bets have bumped the total to as high as 52.5 in the market.
Odds are good that gameday money will show for the Chiefs.
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“We’ll need Dallas,” one Vegas bookmaker forecast. “The public loves to lay Mahomes at short numbers. And we’ll knock out boxes of parlays and moneyline parlays if the Cowboys pull the upset.”
The very same bookmaker reported a $20,000 bet on Dallas +3.5, hinting at a likely Pros vs. Joes situation, with professionals betting the Cowboys and recreational players lining up on the Chiefs.
Elsewhere, DraftKings Sportsbook has a market on teams to make or miss the playoffs. Despite Dallas and Kansas City residing in 10th place in their respective conferences, their playoff prices are drastically different.
Kansas City is -220 to make, Dallas is +700.
It makes me wonder what the price would be if the Los Angeles Chargers or Pittsburgh Steelers were in this exact same scenario. There’s no chance a 6-5 Chargers or 6-5 Steelers team would be -220 to make the playoffs.
The Chiefs tax is ridiculous.
To college football, FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff heads to Ann Arbor this Saturday for the highly-anticipated Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Michigan. Maybe you’ve heard the Wolverines have won four straight.
Any guesses on who Urban Meyer and Dave Portnoy will pick?
Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened Ohio State -10.5 with a total of O/U 45.5. Injury concerns around Buckeye receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate led to some Michigan money down to +10 and a total drop to 44/43.5.
I share weekly notes and texts with Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson about his college football power ratings and his true number in this spot is closer to Ohio State -14.
So, yeah, Ohio State -10 feels a little light.
All that said, Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin was a different guy with Smith and Tate unavailable last weekend against Rutgers. Michigan’s defense will be ecstatic if either of OSU’s two NFL receivers aren’t able to lace ‘em up.
If positive reports surface on either one, the line will rise.
“We’re about even on the side so far,” the aforementioned bookmaker reported. “Rivalry games like this always write great two-way [handle]. We’ll have a better idea of what we need as we get closer to the weekend.
“We shaded the total low and still wrote a sharp bet Under 44.5.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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