Slowly but surely, the paths to the College Football Playoff are narrowing.
Following the latest unveiling of the CFP rankings, FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt isn’t sure how many teams ranked after No. 10 Alabama have much of a lane to make the 12-team field. Klatt believes that 12th-ranked Utah and 14th-ranked Vanderbilt have “a bit of ceiling” on how far they can climb, thanks to their lack of marquee victories.
Of course, 11th-ranked BYU, 13th-ranked Miami (Fla.), 16th-ranked Georgia Tech and 19th-ranked Virginia are still alive and well in their respective conference title races, leading Klatt to point out a possible doomsday scenario for bubble teams.
“[BYU] has the chance to play themselves into a Big 12 title game and then play themselves into the College Football Playoff, which would take one of these spots away and put Texas Tech into a conversation,” Klatt said on his podcast, “The Joel Klatt Show.” “Tech would win a lot of those arguments and that would be a mess. If you’re Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami [or any team on the bubble], what you don’t want to see is BYU continue to win and potentially win the Big 12.”
As the conference races are sorted out, there are three teams currently on the outside looking in that Klatt has his eyes set on: No. 15 USC, No. 17 Texas and No. 18 Michigan.
What are the CFP paths for USC, Texas and Michigan? 🤔
“Those three teams have ammunition on their schedule,” Klatt said. “When you have résumé builders that are the caliber of USC at Oregon, Texas against Texas A&M and Michigan against Ohio State, then you can start to talk yourself into the idea of these teams potentially winning those games and potentially jumping themselves into the College Football Playoff.”
So, would victories for those respective teams in those games be enough to elevate USC, Texas or Michigan into the CFP field? Klatt took a close look at each program’s respective CFP paths.
USC: Path quite open
Jayden Maiava helped USC outlast Iowa in Week 12 to keep its CFP hopes alive. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
As USC makes the trip to Eugene to take on No. 7 Oregon on Saturday, Klatt is ready to call that matchup “a playoff game.”
“The path for USC at 15 is quite open. Oregon’s at 7, USC’s at 15 and on the road, they would value that [win] in a big way,” Klatt said. “USC would jump way up into the rankings. Here’s the other part, you would be winning a game that’s better than any singular win than what Notre Dame has, even though you’re not going to win an argument over Notre Dame because it has the USC win. But you would be at least knocking Oregon down behind you.
“Now, you can at least get yourself up to a place where you’re No. 10. So, Oregon would slip out of the seventh spot, Oklahoma would go to No. 7, Notre Dame would go to No. 8, Alabama would go to No. 9, USC would go to No. 10 and Oregon would go to No. 11. That’s what would happen in the event USC goes up and wins in Eugene this weekend. That’s massive.”
A victory on Saturday would improve USC’s record to 9-2, giving it the head-to-head victory over Oregon while also holding a win over Michigan. So, if USC were to win out, it could be in a scenario where it boxes out those two teams from passing it in the rankings. That’s why Klatt said he believes USC has “the cleanest” path between the USC, Texas and Michigan trio.
“Oregon would need some help if they were to lose this game,” Klatt added on the Ducks’ CFP hopes. “Right or wrong, would they win an argument against Notre Dame? Maybe. Should they? Probably. But if you were to look at two home losses — Indiana and USC — it would not look great for Oregon. USC, conversely, you can talk into being in that 10th spot all day long.”
Texas: Far from an open path
Arch Manning and Texas’ CFP hopes were put in peril following its blowout loss to Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Texas dropped seven spots from No. 10 to No. 17 in Tuesday’s rankings following its 35-10 loss to Georgia. As Texas fell to 7-3 with the loss, Klatt thinks that defeat should essentially disqualify the Longhorns from making the CFP.
“They would be 9-3 [if they beat Texas A&M],” Klatt said. “There’s never been a 9-3 team in the playoff. Do they want to set that precedent with this team? I don’t know if you want to do that with some of the losses that they just had, in particular this last week in that drubbing from Georgia.”
While Klatt believes Texas doesn’t have a great path to the CFP, the Longhorns could have something going in their favor that no other team in the country has. A victory over No. 3 Texas A&M would give Texas three victories over teams ranked in the top 15 of the latest CFP Poll, defeating eighth-ranked Oklahoma and Vanderbilt earlier this season.
But even if Texas does that, Klatt thinks the hill is too steep to climb, and he doesn’t know what its argument to overtake Alabama would be if the Crimson Tide won out.
“Right now, No. 10 Alabama is the last team receiving an at-large spot,” Klatt said. “That’s a lot of ground to make up if you’re Texas. You start to get into the direct comparison of what happened with Texas at Georgia vs. Bama at Georgia.
“You have to consider, yes, they have the three losses. But they also have two really suspect wins in overtime against two of the worst teams in the SEC (Kentucky, Mississippi State),” Klatt added. “That’s not a great résumé, folks. It’s just not. Maybe the eye test would help you out. Although if you’re a coach, and you’re looking at that, that team has yet to play a four-quarter game. We haven’t even seen them play well.
“If this committee values the eye test, I don’t think Texas gets in on the eye test. If the committee somehow turns a new page and they start saying, ‘You know what? We’re not going to deal with this. We’re just going to go off résumé,’ they’re going to lose the résumé battle as well.”
Michigan: Path likely open
Bryce Underwood and Michigan were able to get a thrilling, last-second win over Northwestern in Week 12 to seemingly keep its CFP hopes alive. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
For Klatt, the case for the Wolverines to make the CFP is still pretty clear: If Michigan were to beat Ohio State, it would have the best win in the country this season.
“Michigan, if they were to potentially win in a game against Ohio State, they would be 10-2,” Klatt said. “I think that’s an important distinction because it would throw them into this conversation that you’ve got there with a potential 10-2 Notre Dame, a 10-2 or 10-3 Alabama or a [10-2] Oregon. Oklahoma playing well is helping Michigan until they get into a direct comparison.
“But here’s the deal, if, for some reason, Michigan does beat Ohio State and they’re 10-2, then you can start to look at their résumé and their eye test a lot differently than you would Texas. Michigan would be coming off six straight wins. They would’ve beaten the clear No. 1 team in the country by the committee’s standards. That’s the best win in the country. They would absolutely be in the bubble line.”
As Klatt mentioned, Michigan might have a tough time surpassing a 10-2 Oklahoma team considering the Sooners’ Week 2 win over the Wolverines. But a hypothetical win over Ohio State would give Michigan a victory over a team currently ranked in the top 10, something that Notre Dame, Oregon, BYU, Utah, Vanderbilt, USC or Georgia Tech have not done.
“In the event Michigan wins [against Ohio State], they win an argument over 10-2 Miami. They win an argument over a 10-2 Notre Dame,” Klatt said.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
