Sometimes, the battle between bookmakers and bettors has a boring overall result. No big winner, no big loser.
That was the case with NFL Week 11 odds, though based on responses, the sportsbooks generally came out as small winners.
“It was kind of a forgettable day really. Win a little and move on to next week,” said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook.
But there were a few specific results that weren’t boring, most notably the Kansas City Chiefs losing again — which definitely benefited the bookmakers.
More on that upset and the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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No Relief for Chiefs
Kansas City went to Denver as a 4-point favorite Sunday. The Chiefs exited with a 22-19 loss and a 5-5 record, both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
That result was universally cheered by oddsmakers, from national operators to respected Vegas shops.
“The Broncos knocking off the Chiefs saved us from a losing day,” SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews would’ve preferred a slightly different Chiefs-Broncos finish, but what he got was acceptable.
“A perfect score would’ve been Kansas City winning by three. But I’ll take Denver winning. It’s still a good result,” Andrews said.
Nationally, BetMGM got what it wanted from both of Sunday’s big late-window matchups.
“The Broncos winning and the Seahawks covering were good,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said.
Seattle was a 3-point road underdog to the L.A. Rams and somehow only lost 21-19, despite Sam Darnold finally coming down to earth by throwing four interceptions.
But getting back to the Chiefs: Through 11 weeks, they’re a .500 team, trailing the Broncos (9-2 SU/5-6 ATS) by four games in the win column in the AFC West.
If the playoffs began right now, Kansas City wouldn’t be in the field.
All that noted, oddsmakers still haven’t soured on Patrick Mahomes & Co. The Chiefs are among the top five teams in most sportsbooks’ Super Bowl odds.
BetMGM has K.C. as the +850 co-third choice to win the title, tied with the Bills and behind only the favored Eagles (+550) and Rams (+600).
Give and Take
Beyond the Broncos and Seahawks results, it was a back-and-forth day for the public betting masses. Murray ran through the list of ups-and-downs at The SuperBook.
“The Packers and Ravens were no good for us. We needed one of those two to lose. The Bills were the worst, and the 49ers were no good, too,” Murray said. “The Broncos, Jaguars and Panthers were our best games.”
Green Bay and Baltimore were popular in moneyline parlay plays to just win, regardless of margin. The Packers beat the Giants 27-20, and the Ravens held off the Browns 23-16, though neither covered the spread, with both 7.5-point road favorites.
The Bills trailed the Buccaneers 32-31 early in the fourth quarter, but went on to a 44-32 win and cover as 6.5-point home favorites. And the Niners, 3.5-point road favorites vs. the Cardinals, rolled 41-22 in the return of Brock Purdy, who had three touchdown passes.
Added South Point’s Andrews: “The early games were no bargain. In the late window, the Seahawks game was perfect: Rams by two. That kind of made our day.”
On Campus
College football Week 12 odds saw the public betting masses take a hit on Alabama. The Crimson Tide were 6.5-point home favorites vs. Oklahoma and lost 23-21.
For BetMGM, and likely other big sportsbooks, that locked up a winning day.
“It was a good Saturday,” BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said. “The bettors got some back with Georgia. But Alabama getting beat was just about enough to ensure a nice day.”
Following the Oklahoma-‘Bama game, Georgia rolled over Texas 35-10, easily covering as a 4-point home favorite.
“We lost to Georgia and BYU in the night games, but we had a nice cushion from earlier in the day,” Murray said, noting Oklahoma’s upset was a big part of that cushion.
Murray added that Iowa was a popular play, as a 6.5-point underdog at USC. And the public was in good shape early, with the Hawkeyes holding second-quarter leads of 14-0 and 21-7.
But the Trojans rallied and ultimately won 26-21.
“We took a lot of money on Iowa. We needed USC pretty big,” Murray said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
