There’s one sure way to tell if bookmakers are having a good Sunday: When they don’t care who wins the Sunday night game.
That was the case with NFL Week 9 odds, after a pair of huge upsets in Sunday’s early window. The Lions stunningly lost at home to the Vikings; ditto for the Packers against the Panthers.
Said BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis, when asked if the book had a need on Seahawks–Commanders:
“After today? Nah. Whatever happens, it’s been a good day.”
More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Bounce-Back Week
In Week 8, favorites went 11-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). That’s a recipe for success with the public betting masses, especially since the favorites that lost weren’t that popular — the Falcons and Bengals.
But the pendulum swung in Week 9.
Week in and week out, the Lions and Packers are two of the most-bet teams in the NFL, particularly Detroit, which has been covering point spreads at a ridiculous rate since the middle of the 2022 season, at 40-14-1 ATS entering Week 9.
Minnesota had other ideas Sunday as a 9.5-point road underdog, as the Vikings hung on for a 27-24 victory that was widely celebrated behind the counter.
“That was a great result for us. A lot of parlays/moneyline parlays were with Detroit,” said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook in Las Vegas. “I would think that was a welcome result all over town.”
All over the country is more like it.
Carolina’s 16-13 shocker at Green Bay cemented a winning day for oddsmakers before the late-window games even kicked off.
“It’s a huge day for the book. The Vikings, Panthers and Titans were the biggest needs, and all three hit,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said.
Tennessee didn’t win, but all BetMGM needed was the Titans to cover against the Chargers. Tennessee actually led a couple of times and put up a respectable effort in a 27-20 loss as a 10-point home underdog.
In total, five underdogs won outright, and two more — the Falcons and Raiders — covered the spread and had opportunities to win against the Patriots and Jaguars, respectively.
SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon signed on for all of that.
“It’s our best day in a while. It’s crazy what a few upsets will do for the book,” Degnon said.
Chiefs-Bills a Non-Issue
Thanks primarily to the Lions’ loss, though compounded by the Packers’ setback, the Chiefs–Bills showdown in Sunday’s late window was rendered far less meaningful.
Murray had concerns with all the moneyline parlays that included Kansas City. When the Vikes-Lions outcome was still in doubt, he said:
“If the Vikings can win, that’ll fix that problem.”
The fact that K.C. then lost to Buffalo 28-21 only further fixed the issue. The Chiefs closed as 2.5-point road favorites, but never led after the midway point of the second quarter.
All BetMGM needed was the final score to fall short of the 52.5 total, with the public all over the Over in a battle of two of the best offenses in the NFL.
“We [were] just hoping for a low-scoring game,” Cipollini said.
While a 49-point game isn’t necessarily low-scoring, it was low enough.
Baffling Bengals
If you bet on the Bengals as 3-point home underdogs vs. the Bears, then you probably checked out with 4:53 left in the fourth quarter. Chicago had a 41-27 lead after a D.J. Moore 17-yard touchdown run.
But Cincinnati then got a TD and 2-point conversion to pull within 41-35 with 1:43 remaining. Then the Bengals recovered an onside kick and drove for another TD, on a 9-yard pass from Joe Flacco to Andrei Iosivas.
Side note: 40-year-old Joe Flacco threw for 470 yards and four TDs, though he also had two INTs.
So Cincy improbably took a 42-41 lead with 54 seconds left and looked as if it might get the win. South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews certainly wanted that to happen.
But Chicago got up off the mat. Caleb Williams connected with Colston Loveland on a 58-yard catch-and-run with 17 seconds left, and the Bears won 47-42.
“I can’t believe the Bengals blew that game,” Andrews said, while noting overall, it was a good day, with only one other notable negative result. “Rams by a million, that was bad.”
Well, not exactly a million. But Los Angeles — the biggest favorite of the week at -14.5, and a popular favorite at that — breezed past visiting New Orleans 34-10.
On Campus
BetMGM’s big Sunday came in the wake of a pretty big Saturday, as well. So it’s fair to say the public betting masses generally didn’t do well to football all weekend.
“The house had a great day for college football,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “Oklahoma and North Carolina State winning outright were big-time parlay killers.”
The Sooners, 3-point road underdogs, outlasted Tennessee 33-27. N.C. State was a 4.5-point home underdog to previously undefeated Georgia Tech, and the Wolfpack posted a 48-36 upset.
Then there was Georgia vs. Florida on neutral turf in Jacksonville, Fla. The Bulldogs were 7-point favorites and trailed 20-17 after a Gators field goal just a few seconds into the fourth quarter.
Georgia took a 24-20 lead with 4:36 remaining, then stopped Florida on downs on the ensuing possession.
The Bulldogs took over at the Florida 31-yard line and got to the 5-yard line before facing third-and-1. Gunner Stockton then bootlegged left and could’ve walked into the end zone.
Instead, he kneeled at the 1-yard line, and Georgia ran out the clock from there and therefore didn’t cover the 7-point spread.
“Gunner Stockton bailed out the book big time with his kneel at the 1-yard line. It would’ve been a six-figure swing on that game, had he run in for a touchdown,” Magee said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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