For several years running, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs could count on the public betting masses for support. That’s been the case even this season, despite Kansas City running hot and cold.
But with K.C. now a middling 5-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), the masses are getting restless, starting with NFL Week 12 odds, as the Chiefs face a much improved Colts team.
“There’s an influx of anti-Chiefs money, and I anticipate that moving forward this season, depending on what kind of team the Chiefs are playing,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on the Colts-Chiefs clash and more, as we dive into NFL Week 12 betting nuggets.
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Hail To The … Colts?
While the Chiefs are only playing .500 ball through 11 weeks, the surprising Colts have the NFL’s second-best SU record at 8-2 (6-4 ATS). Indianapolis is also coming off its bye heading into this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff, while Kansas City has lost two in a row.
Caesars Sports opened the Chiefs as 3.5-point home favorites, and that’s where the number remains as of Wednesday afternoon.
“Last week, we saw Chiefs money, really one-sided action against the Broncos. But this week, not so much,” Feazel said. “The action so far is mostly on the Colts, on the spread and the moneyline.”
Meaning some early bettors feel Indy will not only cover the spread, but perhaps spring a modest road upset of K.C.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if that kind of action rings true through Sunday,” Feazel said.
NFL Rocks on FOX
One thing that can get bettors to overlook a team’s subpar record: scoring. And the Cowboys do that with at least some regularity.
Dallas has put up 27 points or more six times this season, including three games in which the Pokes scored 40 or more. On Monday night, Dallas beat Las Vegas 33-16 on the road.
The Cowboys are 4-5-1 SU/5-5 ATS, heading into a showdown vs. the Eagles in America’s Game of the Week on FOX, a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff this Sunday.
Philadelphia (8-2 SU/7-3 ATS) has the more impressive record, and in the past two weeks took down two of the NFC’s best: the Packers on the road and the Lions in Philly. But the Eagles put up a total of just 26 points in those two wins, beating Green Bay 10-7 and Detroit 16-9.
That’s not appealing to the betting public.
Caesars opened the Eagles as 3.5-point road favorites and initially moved up to -4.5 on Sunday night. But as of Wednesday afternoon, the line is down to Eagles -3.5 and might even get to -3.
“It’s more Cowboys action right now. We’ve seen that be the case all year,” Feazel said. “The Eagles seem like a solid team, but they aren’t driving a lot of action. I’m a little surprised people haven’t caught on to the Eagles.
“But the Cowboys are just really popular this year because they can score. I anticipate that this is a matchup where people are liking the Cowboys and a higher-scoring game, a lot of Cowboys money and a lot of Over money.”
Interestingly, the total has actually gone down so far, from a 51.5 opener on Sunday night to 47.5 midweek. So if you like the Over, you’re now getting a better number.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is involved with the first game on the NFL Week 12 oddsboard: Bills–Texans, in an 8:15 p.m. ET start on Thursday.
Buffalo opened as a 3.5-point road favorite, but the point spread ballooned to Bills -6 by Tuesday. That was primarily due to news that Houston QB C.J. Stroud would sit a third straight game while in concussion protocol.
But McKay thinks that move is a little too much, even with Davis Mills at quarterback. He’s on the Texans +6.
“Houston’s weak offensive line is better at home and should have success vs. a subpar Bills set,” McKay said. “On the other side, you have Josh Allen with a banged-up receiving corps, against the top defense in the league.”
Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) won’t play Thursday, nor will wideouts Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck) or Mecole Hardman (calf).
Ram Tough
The Rams are turning heads on the field and at the betting window this season. L.A. is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS, the second-best spread-covering mark in the NFL, heading into a Sunday night showdown vs. the Buccaneers (6-4 SU/5-5 ATS).
Caesars opened Los Angeles as a 6.5-point home favorite for this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. There’s been no movement as of Wednesday afternoon, but early action is on the home favorite.
“These are both teams that people like to bet on, but especially the Rams. People are loving the Rams so far this season,” Feazel said. “It’s a tough spot for Tampa, and that’s what we’re seeing bettors think. They’re on the Rams, and I anticipate seeing much more Rams money. This line might get up to 7.”
NFL Rocks on FOX, Part II
Packers–Vikings is another notable contest in NFL Week 12 odds. Both teams are trying to get back on track as the season hits its final seven weeks.
Green Bay (6-3-1 SU/3-7 ATS) looked like a legit Super Bowl contender early in the season but is a bit off-kilter lately. The Pack lost back-to-back home games to the Panthers and the Eagles, though they rebounded with a 27-20 road win over the New York Giants.
Minnesota (4-6 SU and ATS) went 14-3 SU in the 2024-25 regular season, but already has twice as many losses this year.
The Packers are 6.5-point home favorites for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
“These two teams both leave a lot to be desired. Bettors have not wanted any part of the Packers, week in and week out,” Feazel said, while noting the Vikes aren’t attractive to bettors, either. “So far, there are a lot of bets on the Under. But it’s not really a highly bet game.”
As of Wednesday afternoon, the total is down to 41, after opening at 42.5.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Fortunately, I like small bets and I cannot lie, too.
And it doesn’t get much smaller than this: A DraftKings Sportsbook customer ran his account down to 38 cents. He then decided to dump that pocket change on one of the most-fun prop bets out there that people rarely talk about — exact final score.
The bettor chose Cowboys 33, Raiders 16, at massive odds of +19000 — that’s 190/1 in easier-to-consume terms. And sure enough, it hit.
The aptly named Magic Bread Man made some dough on this wager, turning a 38-cent flier into $72.58. Granted, that’ll only serve as pizza money for a few weeks. But you can’t argue with that kind of ROI!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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