Family, food and football — that’s the Thanksgiving Day formula. And NFL Week 13 odds will get a big jolt from that formula, with three high-profile matchups stretched across the day.
Thursday kicks off on FOX with Packers–Lions. Then it’s on to Chiefs–Cowboys, in what could be the most-bet game of the regular season, followed by Bengals–Ravens as the nightcap.
“Thanksgiving is turkey and football. That’s how it is in the United States,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “Everybody is home, nobody’s working. A lot of people are really homing in on those three football games.
“The first game of the season is often the most-bet game of the year, or at least top five. These Thanksgiving games will be right up there with that or even a playoff-type game.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on the Turkey Day showdowns and more, as we dive into NFL Week 13 betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
The Lions are 8-4 straight up (SU) and 7-5 against the spread (ATS), not nearly as strong at covering the number as they were in the previous two seasons. Green Bay is 7-3-1 SU and a far worse 4-7 ATS.
Detroit opened -3 (-118) for Thursday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. But Packers backers snapped up the +3 early, moving the point spread to Lions -2.5, where the number remains Wednesday afternoon.
That said, the spread is at Lions -2.5 (-118), which shows that this number might get back to -3 by kickoff, particularly if betting keeps trending as it has.
“So far, the action we’re seeing is pretty one-sided on the Lions. But we did see some sharp action on Packers +3 early in the week,” Feazel said. “I don’t anticipate that Lions action changing. The Packers are not as explosive offensively as Detroit, and people gravitate to scoring.
“So we’ll be rooting for a close, low-scoring game.”
The total opened at 49.5, then spent the past three days toggling between 49.5/49/48.5, and it’s at 48.5 on Wednesday afternoon. But no question, the public betting masses will be on the Over, not just in Packers-Lions, but for all three Thanksgiving games.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay was on the Texans +3.5 vs. the Bills last week, and he got to the pay window in Houston’s 23-19 outright win.
In NFL Week 13 odds, McKay is involved with the middle of that Thanksgiving Day sandwich of games, Chiefs vs. Cowboys. McKay bet Under 52.5 on the total for a 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“Dallas is greatly improved on defense and getting more used to defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’ adjustments,” McKay said. “Kansas City isn’t an explosive team. They score with long, clock-consuming drives.
“On the other side, Dallas has offensive line injuries, vs. a very good K.C. defense led by Chris Jones.”
Foremost among those Cowboys injuries, left tackle Tyler Guyton is doubtful with a high ankle sprain.
Regardless, as noted above, Chiefs-Cowboys will be a hugely wagered-on affair. Said Feazel:
“One thing we’ve noticed this year is that Cowboys games are driving a lot of action. The Chiefs also drive a lot of action, whether for or against. So this should be one of the biggest-bet games of the year.”
The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point road favorites at Caesars, but early Cowboys action took this line as low as K.C. -3 a few times this week. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Chiefs are -3.5.
Is Joe a Go? It Appears So
If you can avoid falling into a tryptophan-induced coma, then the Thanksgiving night game is a must-watch, as well. The Ravens (6-5 SU/5-6 ATS) are on a five-game win streak, while the Bengals (3-8 SU/4-7 ATS) have lost four in a row.
However, Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow — out since a toe injury suffered in Week 2 — is expected to return for this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
“The point spread is really reflecting that. Burrow starting was baked into that number,” Feazel said of the Ravens sitting as 7-point favorites.
A week ago, with Burrow’s status more in doubt, the lookahead line on Bengals-Ravens was Baltimore -10.
“We made a 3-point move toward the Bengals,” Feazel said. “So far, bettors are on the Bengals a little bit. But I think it’ll be a little more balanced by game time, two-way action.
“The need will probably be for a lower-scoring game. I anticipate a lot of money on the Over, and a lot of same-game parlays. Neither defense has played well, and all the stars are on the same side of the ball.”
Those same-game parlays usually focus on player props, with first touchdown/anytime touchdown markets among the most popular. Such props correlate with the Over, enhancing bookmakers’ needs for the Under on practically every NFL game, and certainly this one.
Black Friday Football
The Bears are a surprising 8-3 SU/6-4-1 ATS and actually lead the NFC North at the moment. The Eagles (8-3 SU/7-4 ATS) are coming off a Week 12 meltdown at Dallas, where they blew a 21-0 lead and lost 24-21.
For Friday’s 3 p.m. ET kick, Caesars opened Philly as a 7-point home favorite. On Wednesday morning, the Eagles briefly dipped to -6.5, then returned to -7.
“This is another game that will drive a lot of action,” Feazel said. “Bettors have not been attracted to the Eagles lately, and we’re seeing that here. People are starting to buy in a little more on the Bears. There’s a lot of Bears point-spread and moneyline action.
“But I expect we’ll see some Eagles action by game time. We’ll probably need an Eagles win and a Bears cover.”
Steeltown Showdown
With NFL Week 13 odds top-heavy on Thursday/Friday, arguably the most intriguing Sunday game is Bills–Steelers.
Buffalo (7-4 SU/5-6 ATS) hasn’t looked like a team that was the early-season favorite in Super Bowl odds. The Bills lost two of their last three games and are 3-4 SU and ATS in their last seven.
Pittsburgh (6-5 SU/6-4-1 ATS) is likewise heading the wrong way, after a 4-1 SU and ATS start.
Caesars Sports opened the Bills as 4.5-point road favorites for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Through Wednesday afternoon, the line has spent most of the week at Bills -3.5, even with Buffalo getting the bulk of attention.
“Bettors are still coming in on the Bills, even though they haven’t lived up to expectations. So it’s mostly Bills action, and we anticipate a lot more Bills money coming in closer to game time,” Feazel said.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
One bettor closed out Week 12 with a nice payout at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The customer put $45,000 on 49ers -7.5 (-108) vs. the Panthers. San Francisco won 20-9 to cover the spread, and the bettor pocketed $41,666.67 in profit, for a total payout of $86,666.67.
Small bets that pay out big are even more enjoyable. But even so, a Caesars Sports customer might have just a little too much faith in Broncos QB Bo Nix.
The bettor put $500 on Nix +10000 to win NFL MVP. In easier-to-digest terms, those odds are 100/1. There are 11 players ahead of Nix in NFL MVP odds, and he’s miles behind the favorite, Rams QB Matthew Stafford (-230).
If somehow Nix has the most spectacular final six games imaginable, then the bettor will win $50,000. But even as a diehard Broncos fan, I wouldn’t bet on it. Not even with your money!
Enjoy the Thanksgiving smorgasbord and beyond this week. And as always, wager within your means. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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