It’s crunch time in the NFL.
Teams’ hopes of making the playoffs will come down to the next few weeks, and pretty much every team is in need of wins right now.
With that, let me give you my best bets for this week.
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Here come the Dallas Cowboys, winners of three straight games, including two against the Eagles and Chiefs.
Their offense has been excellent this season, with quarterback Dak Prescott and that receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. The Cowboys’ defense has also improved with the addition of Quinnen Williams and the return of DeMarvion Overshown to the linebacker corps.
However, the defensive DVOA for the Cowboys still sits at 31st.
The Lions are 7-5 after losing at home to the Packers on Thanksgiving. Detroit is fourth in team DVOA, ranking fifth on offense and sixth on defense. Just like the Chiefs, who rank near the Lions, the record doesn’t match the team efficiency. The Lions’ offense just isn’t the same without Ben Johnson calling the plays, the offensive line isn’t as good as in previous years, and injuries have hurt Detroit. Tight end Sam LaPorta is out for the season and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is a game-time decision after getting injured last week. The Lions’ defense is fine but inconsistent. It allowed only 16 points to the Eagles, but then got gashed in back-to-back weeks by the Giants and Packers.
The Over in this game is juicy, but everyone will be playing it. It’s a must win for both teams, and both offenses have favorable matchups against the opposing defenses. However, I think this number is a bit high and not worth playing. I’m going to target a few props instead.
Without LaPorta and possibly St. Brown in the lineup, the Lions will look to Gibbs to supplement in the passing game. He’s their best weapon on offense and getting him more touches will be a focus. The Cowboys’ defense ranks 29th against opposing running back receptions and, with their high pass rush win rate, Jared Goff will look to target Gibbs.
Prescott’s completions are set at 23.5, and he has typically been around this number over the last month, going over three times and being just a half reception off against the Eagles. The Lions are possibly without some of their secondary pieces and the Cowboys’ trio of Pickens, Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson will be open. All three have a high catch rate. There’s also a game script and flow to consider. I think this game will be high scoring, which would require these quarterbacks to pass the ball. Prescott is more likely to be the guy throwing a ton, rather than Goff, who can lean on the run game.
PICK: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 receptions
PICK: Dak Prescott Over 23.5 passing completions
The Chiefs’ offense is in a world of hurt against the Texans this weekend.
Left tackle Josh Simmons went on injured reserve, right tackle Jawaan Taylor left their game on Thursday with an elbow injury, and Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith has missed time recently. The latter two might play this week, but if they do, it will be as game-time decisions.
Patrick Mahomes will be running for his life the entire game against this Texans front.
The Texans’ defensive line is one of the best, if not the best, in the entire league. It is an active bunch with two defensive ends who can dominate a game. Danielle Hunter has 11 sacks and Will Anderson Jr. has 10.5 sacks. They will face two backup Chiefs tackles, although Jaylen Moore is good enough to be a starter. Wanya Morris is the issue for K.C.
The Chiefs’ run game was good against the Cowboys, but it is just generally not an explosive run game. The Texans will have no resources devoted to stopping the run and it will be on Mahomes and the receivers to create offense — but I just don’t see that happening for K.C.
The Chiefs’ offense has been up and down, and the last time it faced a defense like the Texans, the Chiefs only scored 19 against the Broncos.
PICK: Chiefs team total Under
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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