As we turn the calendar to December, the NFL field looks as wide open as ever, with the Bears and Patriots surprisingly on top of their respective conferences entering this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Lions and Chiefs, two teams viewed just weeks ago as Super Bowl favorites, both now face the possibility of missing the playoffs.
That’s pro football for you.
Let’s look at every game scheduled for Week 14 and find a best bet for each, starting with a fantastic Thursday night matchup.
George Pickens Over 80.5 receiving yards
It’s been a breakout year for the Cowboys’ young wide receiver. But, as impressive as Pickens’ stats have been, they should look even better considering that he is among the league leaders in drawing pass interference calls. After games with 144 and 146 receiving yards the prior two weeks, Pickens had 88 yards on Thanksgiving against the Chiefs, but was targeted 13 times. I expect another big game from the emerging star.
Joe Burrow Over 35.5 passing attempts
The Bengals’ game plan was clear last week — short, quick passes for Burrow that don’t give the defense much of a chance to hit him as he recovers from toe surgery. Burrow threw 46 times last week in a game the Bengals mostly led. I think we see a similar approach on Sunday.
Under 42.5 combined points scored
The “Baker Mayfield MVP” buzz from early in the season now seems like it was a lifetime ago. The Bucs’ QB is nursing a left shoulder injury, and simply hasn’t played particularly well as of late. On the other side of the ball, we have a very limited Saints offense. Both are good ingredients for an Under here.
Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 interceptions
Last week, the Seahawks picked off Vikings’ rookie Max Brosmer four times in a shutout victory. This week, they will face former Viking Kirk Cousins. A ball-hawking Seahawks defense against Cousins, who will likely be throwing from behind as a 7-point underdog, is a good recipe for more Seattle takeaways.
Under 42.5 combined points scored
Nine of the last 10 games between these two teams have stayed under the total, and here are the combined points scored in those games: 35, 34, 27, 27, 29, 30, 29 and 39. Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is starting to look his age, and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson appears to be gutting through a litany of lower body injuries that prevent him from using his dynamic running ability. Expect another ugly, low-scoring battle here.
Jaguars +1.5
Seems to me like the wrong team is favored here. The Colts were the best story in the league not too long ago, but perhaps the league has adjusted. Or maybe it’s the injury to Colts’ quarterback Daniel Jones that’s slowing them down. Whatever it is, the offense hasn’t looked the same for several weeks now. I’ll take the home team and the point and a half.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions
“Due” is a dangerous word when it comes to betting, but if anyone is due to snag an interception, it’s the suddenly feisty New York Jets. We are now into December, and the Jets are still waiting to pick off their first pass. Tagovailoa has notoriously struggled in colder weather. I’ll say the Jets end the streak this week.
Titans team total Under 14.5 points
The Titans had started to show some signs of progress, but were once again embarrassed last week in a 25-3 loss to the Jaguars. The Cleveland defense is second in the league in yards per game allowed, and should make this an ugly 60 minutes for the visiting Titans.
Vikings -2.5
A buy-low spot here after the Vikings were embarrassed last week in Seattle. I’ll take the home team and the much better defense.
Raiders +7.5
The Broncos are 4-2 away from home this year but have yet to win any of those games by more than four points. They also needed a furious rally to win by just a point at home against the Giants. The Broncos don’t blow teams out on the road, and just last week won by only one in overtime over the Commanders. Expect a close game Sunday.
Trey McBride Over 72.5 receiving yards
McBride has been a machine, and comes off an eight-catch, 82-yard day against the Bucs last week. The prior three weeks, McBride had double-digit targets. The last time McBride didn’t have 73+ yards was early in November against the Cowboys.
Bears first quarter +0.5
The Bears won the coin toss last week against the Eagles and chose to start with the ball, something they’ve done consistently under Ben Johnson. The Packers used to do the same, but have drifted more towards conventional wisdom and have chosen to defer in recent weeks. Good chance the Bears start with the ball. I will bet accordingly.
Texans +3.5
This is the fourth straight week the Chiefs have been favored by around a field goal or more. With losses to the Broncos and Cowboys in those games, and a 3-point overtime win against the Colts, it seems as though the Chiefs are being slightly overvalued recently. The Texans have an elite defense, and the Chiefs have had a knack for pulling out close wins. Maybe the Chiefs win and keep their season alive, but I like taking the points here.
Jalen Hurts Over 28.5 rushing yards
Much has been made of the Eagles’ struggling offense. One way to get it going is to have Hurts use his legs more often. With extra time off in between games, perhaps the Eagles’ offense has time to develop some new wrinkles in order to jump-start things for the defending champs.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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