NFL betting usually rules the roost on the American sports wagering landscape.
But College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds are giving the mighty shield a run for its money at the moment — particularly in the Miami vs. Ohio State Cotton Bowl matchup, which kicks off the quarterfinals on Dec. 31, and the Alabama vs. Indiana Rose Bowl showdown on Jan. 1.
“These standalone College Football Playoff games really rival the NFL games,” Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said.
Mucklow serves up his insights on College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds for all four matchups.
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Bettors Backing Buckeyes
Ohio State is 12-1 straight up (SU), though that lone loss came in its last outing. The Buckeyes were 3.5-point favorites vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and fell short 13-10.
Still, with a 10-2-1 mark against the spread (ATS), Ohio State has been one of the best bets all season in college football. Only Texas Tech (11-2 ATS) is better at covering the number.
So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the public betting masses are all over No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl, for a 7:30 p.m. ET New Year’s Eve kickoff.
“Ohio State is a bigger loser for us on the spread than any of the NFL Week 17 games. And there’s still [five days] of betting to come,” Mucklow said.
After Miami’s 10-3 first-round win at No. 7 Texas A&M, Caesars Sports opened the Buckeyes as 7.5-point favorites. That number sprinted to Buckeyes -10, with early bettors eager to pile on Ohio State.
The Hurricanes actually saw sharp action at +10, so Caesars adjusted Monday to Ohio State -9.5.
Backing Off ‘Bama
No. 9 Alabama (11-3 SU/8-5-1 ATS) has the SEC pedigree, which is usually attractive to the betting masses. But No. 1 Indiana (13-0 SU/8-5 ATS) has been an offensive juggernaut much of the season, and bettors like to back a good offense.
And even though the Hoosiers didn’t put up points in their last outing, they did beat defending national champion Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. That carries some weight, as well, for a 4 p.m. ET Rose Bowl clash on New Year’s Day.
Indiana opened as a 6-point favorite and moved out to -7 in short order. Mucklow said sharp action on Alabama +7 led Caesars to lower Indiana to -6.5. But a continuing flood of Indiana action from the masses moved the Hoosiers up to -7 again.
“Bettors are all over Indiana big time. That’s bigger than our Ohio State decision,” Mucklow said. “I hate to say it, but we’re Alabama fans by a good distance.”
That said, Mucklow noted Caesars has one angle working in its favor.
“Indiana has not really been in this position before. Alabama has been there, done that,” he said.
Short Spread
Oddsmakers believe No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech is the most competitive matchup in CFP quarterfinal odds. The Ducks opened as 1.5-point favorites and are up to -2 vs. the Red Raiders, for a noon ET New Year’s Day start in the Orange Bowl.
Oregon (12-1 SU/9-4 ATS) already has a CFP game under its belt, coasting past No. 12 James Madison 51-34. But the Ducks fell short of covering as huge 20.5-point home favorites.
As noted above, Texas Tech (12-1 SU/11-2 ATS) is the best spread-covering team in the nation this season. The Red Raiders have been resting since a 34-7 rout of BYU as 12.5-point favorites in the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 6.
Bettors are leaning toward the Ducks, as of Friday afternoon.
“Oregon is a small loser for us, nothing drastic. There’s not much of a difference between these two teams,” Mucklow said. “I think this game will see two-way action. It’s only a 2-point spread.”
Sweet Rematch
One matchup in College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds is actually a rematch from the regular season. In Week 8, Ole Miss and Georgia played a thriller in Athens, Ga.
Ole Miss — then under Lane Kiffin, who has since left for LSU — led 35-26 late in the third quarter. But Georgia did the rest of the scoring in a 43-35 victory, barely covering as a 7-point home favorite.
Now, No. 3 Georgia (12-1 SU/6-7 ATS) and No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1 SU/8-5 ATS) meet on a neutral field at the Sugar Bowl. The spread is similar to the first meeting, with the Bulldogs opening -6 and now up to -6.5 for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff on New Year’s Day.
“All the money is for Georgia, which doesn’t surprise me,” Mucklow said. “You’ve given Kirby Smart three weeks to prepare for this game.”
Money Talks
Mucklow also ran through ranking the four CFP quarterfinals based on the amount of money each game is seeing so far.
“Alabama-Indiana is No. 1 by a distance. Then it’s Miami-Ohio State,” Mucklow said. “Then there’s a pretty significant gap to Ole Miss-Georgia, and another big gap to Oregon-Texas Tech. That’s the least popular of the four, by a distance.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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