For the better part of two weeks, conversation surrounding this year’s College Football Playoff devolved into dueling takes about the Group of 5’s inclusion in the 12-team field. Lopsided losses by James Madison (Sun Belt) and Tulane (American) — neither of which cracked the top 12 in the selection committee’s final rankings last month — invited widespread debate about how the format should be tweaked in coming seasons.
While it’s a debate that might one day usher in changes, as conversations about expansion never seem to stop, the bureaucratic fog will be temporarily cleared by a mouth-watering set of quarterfinal matchups.
[2025 CFP Odds: Lines, Spreads for Each Quarterfinal Game]
Sure, there are dissenting opinions about how the first round unfolded, but few can argue against the eight best teams advancing to the second round. From this point forward, every game should feature teams with legitimate national championship aspirations.
That said, here are my latest CFP quarterfinals predictions:
Quarterfinal Round
Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Winner: Ohio State
(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
One of the driving factors behind Miami’s gritty, 10-3 road win over No. 7 Texas A&M in the first round of the CFP was a relentless pass rush that harassed Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed from the first snap to his last. The Hurricanes pressured Reed on 18 of his 52 dropbacks (34.6%), according to Pro Football Focus, which represented a significant uptick from the 28.9% pressure rate he experienced all season. Miami’s tremendous edge duo of Akheem Mesidor (11 pressures) and Reuben Bain Jr. (eight pressures) combined for 4.5 sacks in a dominant display. Nickelback Keionte Scott proved a timely blitzer from the slot position as well, with three quarterback pressures and two sacks of his own. That’s the kind of hellacious effort Miami will need when facing an Ohio State offensive line that has only surrendered 11 sacks all season, tied for the sixth-lowest total in the country and fourth-lowest among Power 4 programs.
Even if the Hurricanes’ defense plays well — that unit has only allowed more than 10 points in a game twice since falling to Louisville on Oct. 17 — the bigger issue facing Miami is whether its offense can generate points against the best statistical defense in the country. Under the direction of first-year defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, the former head coach of the NFL‘s Detroit Lions, the Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring defense (8.2 points per game), total defense (213.5 yards per game) and red zone defense (66.7% opponent scoring rate). The group is anchored by a handful of likely first-round picks along the spine in defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, inside linebackers Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles and safety Caleb Downs, who’s considered by Patricia to be the best defensive player in the country regardless of position.
The fact that the Hurricanes have only faced two top-20 defenses all season in Louisville and Texas A&M — teams that held Miami to 31 combined points — doesn’t bode well for what they’ll face this week. Ohio State will advance.
[College Football Playoff Predictions: Are CFP Teams Coming Off a Bye Doomed?]
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (Thursday, noon ET)
Winner: Texas Tech
(Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Two fascinating truths emerge when dissecting what should be a tremendous game between Oregon and Texas Tech to begin the New Year’s Day slate. The first is that the Red Raiders, runaway winners of the Big 12, haven’t faced an opponent with the collective speed, talent and depth that the Ducks possess under fourth-year head coach Dan Lanning — one of the most aggressive roster builders in the sport. Of the eight teams remaining in this year’s CFP, seven of them own strength of schedules that rank among the top 45 in the country, according to ESPN. The lone outsider is Texas Tech at No. 54 overall, a byproduct of both a relatively thin Big 12 slate — especially when compared to the flurry of ranked teams in the Big Ten or SEC — and a non-conference schedule that included Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Southwestern), Kent State (Mid-American) and Oregon State (Pac-12); those are three schools that combined for 10 victories this season. Oregon will certainly be the best team Texas Tech has seen all season.
Given that Oregon avoided playing Ohio State this season — and the Buckeyes were clear possessors of the conference’s best defensive front — it’s also true that Texas Tech will present the toughest front seven the Ducks have faced. Though the Red Raiders spent aggressively in the transfer portal at seemingly every position, compiling the nation’s second-best portal class, according to 247Sports, nowhere was that more evident than along the defensive line. In former Stanford edge rusher David Bailey, former Georgia Tech edge rusher Romello Height and former UCF defensive tackle Lee Hunter, the Red Raiders added three of the top 62 overall transfers thanks in large part to billionaire donor Cody Campbell, an oil and gas tycoon. That trio has since combined for 161 pressures, 25.0 sacks and six forced fumbles in what can only be described as money well spent.
That kind of disruption should be enough for Texas Tech to force Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, who struggles when his pocket begins to crumble, into at least one game-changing mistake.
Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (Thursday, 4 p.m. ET)
Winner: Indiana
(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Imagine thinking back to the national championship-strewn Nick Saban era at Alabama — or any era in the program’s history, really — and envisioning a scenario where Indiana, which has lost the second-most games of any team in college football history, is favored over the Crimson Tide by nearly a touchdown on a neutral field. For decades, such a statement would have seemed like heresy given the drastically contrasting pedigrees and aspirations of both programs, but second-year Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti, formerly of JMU, has transformed the Hoosiers from cellar-dwellers to Big Ten champions in short order. Indiana, a team thoroughly deserving of the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s CFP, ranks among the top 10 nationally in total offense (eighth), total defense (fourth) and special teams (sixth) to reflect just how fundamentally sound, well-coached and talented Cignetti’s group really is in all three phases. If the name on the opponent’s jersey this week was Texas Tech instead of Alabama, a program synonymous with postseason success, it’s quite possible the Hoosiers would be favored by even more.
Still, the projected margin is what it is because the Crimson Tide continue to fall short of expectations under second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, whose 20-7 overall record and 12-4 mark in the SEC could be considered quite solid in a Saban-less vacuum. Alabama’s defense, which still ranks 13th nationally, lacks the same top-of-the-draft star power it enjoyed on an annual basis under Saban, and an offense that ranks 76th nationally under DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has become increasingly imbalanced because of an inability to run the football.
The Crimson Tide will enter this week’s game ranked 120th in rushing (109.9 yards per game) following a stretch in which the program churned out one early round running back after another with Saban in charge: Jahmyr Gibbs in 2023, Brian Robinson Jr. in 2022, Najee Harris in 2021, Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris in 2019, Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake in 2016, T.J. Yeldon in 2015, Eddie Lacy in 2013, Trent Richardson in 2012, Mark Ingram in 2011 and Glen Coffee in 2009 — all of whom were selected in the first three rounds. This year’s group lacks anyone of that same ilk, and it’s difficult to see an opponent beating Indiana with a one-dimensional offensive approach.
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET)
Winner: Georgia
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
In some respects, this intriguing rematch from a mid-season conference game can be distilled into the following questions: Is Georgia’s defense closer to the leaky unit that surrendered five touchdowns to Ole Miss in an eventual 43-35 home victory that required the Bulldogs to score 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter? Or is it more like the stingy, ravenous group resembling Georgia units of yore that has only given up 11.7 points per game ever since, including 19 combined points to its past three opponents? The answers to those queries will likely decide the outcome on Thursday night in New Orleans.
When these two teams met on Oct. 18 at Stanford Stadium — with Ole Miss ranked No. 5 and Georgia ranked No. 9 in the AP Top 25 — the Rebels scored touchdowns on their opening five possessions to build a 35-26 lead by the end of the third quarter. Each of those drives spanned at least 65 yards, as dual-threat quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who was making the first road start of his Rebels career, oversaw a methodical offense that converted a combined six of 11 attempts on third and fourth down. Four of the Rebels’ scoring possessions during that stretch included 10 or more plays. They were the latest team to gash what seemed like an uncharacteristically porous Bulldogs’ defense, a group that had already given up 496 total yards to Tennessee and 397 total yards to Alabama.
Since then, however, no other offense has shredded Georgia so thoroughly ahead of a national quarterfinal that will be played deep in SEC country — though Ole Miss will be without former head coach and offensive mastermind Lane Kiffin, who has since taken over at LSU. The Bulldogs’ defense, orchestrated by head coach Kirby Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann, continues to ascend the national rankings thanks largely to an increasingly stout run unit in keeping with the program’s reputation. Georgia has yielded 128 rushing yards across its past four games combined, including a smothering minus-3-yard effort against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Those defensive improvements might be too much for Ole Miss to counter, especially without Kiffin’s timely play calls.
Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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