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BigPaulSports > Blog > Game Analysis > Favorite ‘Dogs: Back Indiana in Big Ten Title Game, Texans at Chiefs
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Favorite ‘Dogs: Back Indiana in Big Ten Title Game, Texans at Chiefs

BigP
Last updated: 2025/12/02 at 4:30 PM
BigP Published December 2, 2025
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Favorite 'Dogs: Back Indiana in Big Ten Title Game, Texans at Chiefs
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Upsets were not hard to find last week in the NFL, with the four games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday all going the way of the underdog. 

Then, on Sunday, a stunner occurred, as the red-hot Rams were cooled off by the surprising Panthers, while the Jets and Texans pulled off mini-upsets as well. 

Now, let’s look ahead to this weekend, see which favorites may be vulnerable and find a potential upset in both college and the NFL.

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No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State 

This game has actually been available to bet for quite a while. 

Some sportsbooks posted the line for this hypothetical matchup after Indiana won at Oregon back in October. Since that day, this showdown seemed inevitable, and now it’s reality. 

While the winner of this game will be the top seed in the College Football Playoff, is it possible Ohio State has a bit of an emotional letdown after finally beating Michigan for the first time since 2019? 

Even with a loss, Ohio State would remain in line to get a bye in the CFP. 

Meanwhile, Indiana seems to have a chip on its shoulder at all times, and I believe the Hoosiers will be ultra-motivated to win this game and further prove they belong among college football’s elites. 

The Buckeyes are the defending national champions, they’re undefeated and have been simply dominant this season. However, they’ve played a relatively soft schedule since beating Texas in Week 1, a game in which they were outgained. 

I expect the talented and feisty Hoosiers to give Ohio State everything it can handle in Indianapolis on Saturday.

PICK: Indiana (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points or win outright

Texans @ Chiefs

This is the fourth week in a row the Chiefs are favored by slightly more than a field goal. In the previous three games, the Chiefs lost to the Cowboys and Broncos, and had to erase a double-digit, fourth-quarter deficit to rally and beat the Colts by three in overtime. 

I think they are in for another struggle in this one. 

The Over/Under is a low 41.5. So not many points are expected in what figures to be a close game, with points at a premium. The Houston defense leads the league in both points per game and yards allowed per game. 

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are at home in a must-win situation. And the fear that people have to bet against them is why there is value in backing the Texans and that elite defense.

In order to reach their fourth consecutive Super Bowl, the Chiefs will likely have to win every game from now until the end of the year. Look for the surging Texans to keep it close and cover the point spread. 

PICK: Texans (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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TAGGED: college-football
BigP December 2, 2025
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