There’s nothing the public betting masses love more than high-profile standalone games. Thanksgiving and Black Friday provide plenty of that in the NFL.
What the masses don’t love: Favorites losing in all those games.
Stunningly, that’s what happened in the NFL Week 13 odds market, a bust for bettors and a boon for sportsbooks.
“Traditionally, Thanksgiving weekend has been rough on bookmakers. This Thursday and Friday were really good,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
More on the underdog run and the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Every Dog Has Its Day
When it comes to the three Thanksgiving Day games and now the Black Friday matchup, as well, the public fires away on moneyline parlays. Stringing one favorite to the next, and the next, and the next, in hopes of all four winning to cash for a nice profit.
But the underdogs had other things in mind. First, the Packers — 3-point road underdogs — knocked off the Lions 31-24. Then the Cowboys held off the Chiefs 31-28 as 3.5-point home ‘dogs.
That was followed Thanksgiving night by the bigger surprise: Joe Burrow back in the lineup for the first time since Week 2, leading the 7.5-point road underdog Bengals to a 32-14 upset of Baltimore.
“It’s no secret that Thursday was near enough to our best day of the NFL season,” BetMGM trading manager Tristan Davis said. “It’s the best set of results I’ve seen for Thanksgiving.”
And it continued Friday, when the Bears — a 7-point ‘dog at Philadelphia — stunned the Eagles 24-15.
“Results-wise, those were two of the best days we’ve seen in the NFL so far this year,” fellow BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
Added Joey Feazel, head of football trading for Caesars Sports: “Not the best week of the season for bettors.”
Sunday Give-And-Take
The Sunday slate didn’t start too well for the public betting masses, either. Underdogs went 5-2 against the spread, including two outright victories in the early games.
That included the Panthers, 10-point home underdogs, shocking the red-hot Rams 31-28, ending L.A.’s six-game win streak. The Rams were surely seen as a free space on a moneyline parlay Bingo card.
“It’s funny the way that worked out. We needed the Rams to either blow the Panthers out or lose outright, and they lost outright,” Andrews said. “That was the big game for us.”
Among other games that fell well for Andrews: The 49ers stifled Shedeur Sanders and the Browns 26-8, with San Francisco a 5-point road favorite and Cleveland a semi-trendy underdog.
But what’s good for one sportsbook isn’t necessarily good for another.
“We lost our biggest decision of the early games with the Browns. That wasn’t good for us,” Murray said Sunday night. “Thursday and Friday were good. Today was no good. We needed the Browns in the early games, and we didn’t do well in the late games.”
That’s because favorites finally delivered in the three late-window matchups. The Seahawks and Chargers were double-digit home favorites vs. the Vikings and Raiders, respectively, and both rolled. Seattle won 26-0 and Los Angeles won 31-14.
The Bills were 3-point road favorites vs. Pittsburgh and coasted 26-7.
“The [late-window games] all went the bettors’ way, with the three favorites all covering the spreads to even up the day,” Feazel said.
But the day ended with another underdog covering. Washington lost to Denver 27-26 in overtime Sunday night, but beat the spread as a 6-point pup.
BetMGM had no complaint with giving some back on the Seahawks/Chargers/Bills results.
“It was a good day, considering three of the last four favorites covered. We will sign for it,” Davis said.
On Campus
College football Week 14 odds produced much better results for the majority of bettors, particularly on Saturday. The biggest game provided one of the best results: Ohio State routing Michigan 27-9 as 10-point road favorites.
Alabama beat Auburn 27-20 to push as a 7-point favorite. However, the point spread opened at Alabama -5.5 and didn’t get to -7 until shortly before kickoff. So plenty of bettors cashed spread tickets on the Crimson Tide, and surely a lot of winning moneyline parlays included the Tide, as well.
Oregon was another popular Saturday play as a 6.5-point favorite at Washington. Leading 19-14, the Ducks got a mid-fourth-quarter touchdown that clinched the win and cover, 26-14.
“College football bettors probably had the best day they’ve had this season,” BetMGM’s Magee said. “Ohio State, Oregon and Alabama were widely popular plays that came through for bettors.”
Texas, a 2.5-point home underdog, put the first L on Texas A&M’s record with a 27-17 upset Friday, which Magee said was a good outcome for the book.
“It was big for the book at that time. Not so much after Saturday,” he said.
At the South Point, Andrews echoed Magee’s sentiments.
“Saturday was no bargain. That Alabama game was terrible. We opened at 5.5 and went to 7,” Andrews said, pointing out that Alabama tickets at -5.5/-6/-6.5 all cashed, and the -7 bets were all refunds.
With the game tied at 20 and 3:50 remaining, the Crimson Tide faced fourth-and-goal from the 6-yard line, seemingly calling for a field goal. But coach Kalen DeBoer went for it instead and got the touchdown.
“If Alabama kicked a field goal there, it would’ve been a thing of beauty,” Andrews said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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