After leading the Indiana Hoosiers to the Big Ten Championship with an impressive 13-game run, Fernando Mendoza is not only the presumptive favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, but the 6-foot-5, 225-pounder has emerged as QB1 in the 2026 NFL Draft class.
While there is plenty of work to do in evaluating this year’s quarterback class, the Indiana standout has seemingly separated from the pack after posting a 71.5 completion rate with 2,980 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, leading his squad to the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. The efficient production and clutch playmaking have intrigued evaluators seeking a franchise quarterback capable of taking the ball from Day 1. Additionally, the consistent production from a polished pocket passer with 37 career starts checks off a lot of boxes for evaluators looking for an experienced quarterback to build around.
THE UPSIDE
Studying the tape, Mendoza is the classic drop-back passer every NFL offensive coordinator covets in a QB1. He operates primarily from the pocket, executing various quick-rhythm throws that stretch the defense from sideline to sideline. From delivering slants and seams on “catch, rock and throw” concepts to firing square-outs and post-corners following three-step drops, the redshirt junior operates comfortably from the pocket.
Although Mendoza’s arm strength is best described as above-average, he makes up for his lack of velocity with outstanding timing and anticipation on intermediate throws. He excels at throwing in-breaking routes (digs, seams and glance routes) between the numbers, but has also shown excellent anticipation on back-shoulder fades down the boundary. The pinpoint ball placement and feathery touch make it hard for defenders to make plays on the ball.
The Hoosiers’ QB1 shows similar ball placement and touch on slot fades in the red zone. Mendoza routinely tosses the ball “high and away” from defenders, while giving his pass catchers chances to come down with 50-50 balls in the end zone. Whether it is taking advantage of Charlie Becker’s superior size, Omar Cooper’s exceptional leaping ability, or Elijah Surratt’s exceptional ball skills, the veteran passer routinely puts his pass catchers in the best position to succeed.
Under pressure, Mendoza shows outstanding poise and composure, dropping “dimes” with defenders in proximity. He rarely flinches despite anticipating contact, showing the toughness and courage expected of a franchise quarterback under duress. As a B-plus athlete, Mendoza flashes the mobility and movement skills to escape when the pocket collapses. He has a knack for picking up first downs on impromptu scrambles, flashing adequate running skills in the open field.
Although Indiana did not showcase his running skills in 2025, the redshirt junior routinely executed designed quarterback runs and option plays at Cal. As a two-year starter for the Golden Bears, he thrived in an RPO-based system that enabled him to utilize his quick-rhythm passing skills and sneaky running ability to threaten the defense in various ways. From throwing on the run on sprint outs and bootlegs to extending plays with improvisation, Mendoza’s versatile game should make it easy for a creative offensive coordinator to build a playbook around his talents.
THE DOWNSIDE
From a critical standpoint, Mendoza will enter the league viewed as a “game manager” rather than a “game changer.” He posted one 300-yard game as a Hoosier and operated primarily as a point guard in a system that creates easy completions for the quarterback. Additionally, he had just one signature game (21 of 23 for 267 with five scores against Illinois) against three top-10 opponents (Illinois, Oregon, and Ohio State) this season. While Mendoza delivered some “splash” plays as a passer in each of those games, he has not carried an offense like a potential No. 1 overall pick is expected to do at the next level.
Without a strong resume littered with performances as a game changer, it is hard to project Mendoza as anything more than a high-end game manager as a pro. For comparison’s sake, the redshirt junior reminds me of Jared Goff and Daniel Jones, as a distributor who operates as a point guard within a well-constructed system.
While those comparisons might make some evaluators pause when considering Mendoza as a potential No. 1 overall pick, Goff is a four-time Pro Bowler who has led a team to a Super Bowl appearance and helped a downtrodden franchise re-emerge as a perennial contender.
THE VERDICT
With Mendoza featuring similar traits as a passer and playmaker, the Indiana standout could emerge as the rare QB1 who earns high marks as a game manager but needs a stellar supporting cast to live up to the hype and expectations as a potential No. 1 overall pick.
Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and as a cohost of the “Moving the Sticks” podcast. Follow him on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.
