I’m not sure that anything can top last week’s Bears-Packers game, or the Jaguars-Bills game, for that matter.
While the divisional round might not be as wild as the first week of playoffs, I do have a sneaking suspicion that we’re in for a treat — even if that means below-zero temperatures.
Here’s what I’m on this weekend.
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The Buffalo Bills’ rushing defense is poor, and it appears the last few opponents have barely noticed.
However, I believe the Broncos and their head coach, Sean Payton, will design a game plan to take advantage of that weakness.
In the regular season, the Bills’ rushing D ranked 28th in yards per game and 30th in yards per rushing attempt. Last weekend against the Jaguars, Buffalo allowed 99 yards on the first eight carries by the two Jaguars running backs.
With the Broncos having a few extra weeks to hone their game plan — coupled with their desire to win the line of scrimmage — I believe Denver running back RJ Harvey will get his carries. I like Harvey to have 14 or more rushing attempts. He’s gone over that number in four of the Broncos’ last five games since he became their No. 1 option.
I’m also going to play Bo Nix’s Over rushing yards. He had 83 carries this season, which was fifth-most for NFL QBs this season. The Bills allowed nearly seven yards a carry to quarterbacks this year, which is dead last in the NFL.
I could be wrong about this game script, but I’m guessing that the Broncos are going to have to run the football.
PICK: RJ Harvey 14+ rushing attempts
PICK: Bo Nix Over 23.5 rushing yards
This year’s 49ers are a fantastic story.
They are beat-up and bruised but continue to win football games. San Francisco beat the hapless Eagles last week, but lost tight end George Kittle in the process.
This weekend’s game at Seattle will be a much tougher task and I expect the 49ers to struggle to score.
Niners’ head coach Kyle Shanahan has faced Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense five times in the last three seasons, including once in 2023 when Macdonald was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Shanahan’s offense has averaged just over 18 points in those five games with 10 offensive touchdowns and nine turnovers.
This average includes just three points against Seattle in their Week 18 matchup.
In the regular season, the Seattle defense ranked first in points per game, second in yards per play and first on third down. Without Kittle, the 49ers have a middle-of-the-pack receiving group. Then there’s all-world running back Christian McCaffrey, who’s incredible — but if the Seattle defense can spend all its time trying to stop him, it will slow down the San Francisco offense.
I just don’t have high hopes for the Bay Area offense in this game.
PICK: 49ers team total Under 18.5 points scored
There’s a lot of NFL chatter about Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert leading the NFL in most pressures faced. You know who is second?
Patriots’ quarterback Drake Maye, who plays behind an offensive line that is worse than people believe.
Left tackle Will Campbell was out for a bit, but he’s back in the lineup. Maye was sacked five times against the Chargers and hounded on many other reps. Houston’s team revolves around its defensive line, with both Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter having double-digit sacks this season.
I like that matchup for both of them, and I’ll take both of them to record a sack in this game.
PICK: Will Anderson 1+ sack
PICK: Danielle Hunter 1+ sack
Did you hear this game was going to be cold?
Temperatures near or below zero and with the wind chill? Brrr.
Well, if you’ve miraculously missed the weather discussion, let me be the first to inform you: It will be cold and windy.
I don’t think it will affect the Rams as much as people want it to. However, I do believe it will force the Rams into rushing the ball more than they’d prefer.
Rushing the ball against the Bears should be the preferred way to attack their below-average defense. Chicago’s defense ranked 29th in rushing yards per attempt in the regular season, while the Rams’ rushing attack was ninth. The Rams have a two-headed rushing attack of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum that averages just a tick under 130 rushing yards per game.
DraftKings Sportsbook offers a combined rushing yards prop for Williams and Corum. It’s 125+ rushing yards combined at +155. I’m going to play that prop for this game, expecting a run-heavy offense against a poor run defense.
PICK: Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 125+ rushing yards
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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