High-profile Sunday night NFL games often lead to headaches for bookmakers, as a strong Sunday for NFL favorites can lead to massive liability in the prime-time finale.
Nevertheless, sportsbooks almost always want the biggest game in that slot, as it generates the most betting action.
So for Joey Feazel, head of football trading for Caesars Sports, it’s a little disappointing to see Ravens–Steelers as the final game on the NFL Week 18 oddsboard.
“We definitely wanted to see Seahawks–49ers on Sunday night, for selfish reasons,” Feazel said. “But Ravens-Steelers is still gonna drive a lot of money on Sunday night.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on both those matchups and more, as we roll out NFL Week 18 betting nuggets.
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West Coast the Best Coast
Three NFC West teams are in the NFL playoffs. Two will be wild cards and one will be the No. 1 seed. That’s how good a season it’s been for the Seahawks, 49ers and Rams.
The No. 1 seed will emerge from a Saturday night showdown between the Seahawks and 49ers. Seattle leads the NFC at 13-3 straight up (SU) and a very respectable 11-5 against the spread (ATS), among the best spread-covering marks in the NFL.
San Francisco (12-4 SU/10-6 ATS) is on a six-game win streak, matching Seattle, and is 5-1 ATS in those games. And way back in Week 1, the Niners were 1-point road favorites and beat the Seahawks 17-13.
But Caesars Sports opened Seattle as a 1-point road favorite for Saturday’s 8 p.m. ET kickoff. The Seahawks are -1.5 as of Wednesday evening, although there’s definitely early 49ers support.
“We’re seeing more San Fran money, driven a lot by our Nevada market. And we’re gonna continue to see more bets on the 49ers,” Feazel said, alluding to some regional bias toward the Niners. “The 49ers are a decent Super Bowl liability for us, as well.
“So we’ll be rooting for Seattle to make the Niners’ Super Bowl path more difficult.”
NFL Rocks on FOX
The Lions (8-8 SU/7-9 ATS) have nothing to play for, already eliminated from playoff contention. On the flip side, the Bears (11-5 SU/10-5-1 ATS) have the NFC North wrapped up, but need a win to guarantee the No. 2 seed, which they currently hold.
Caesars opened Chicago as a 2.5-point home favorite, went to -3 on Tuesday and remained -3 on Wednesday night, for a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff on FOX.
“So far, we’re seeing action on the team trying to win – the Bears,” Feazel said. “But this is also a game that, while the Lions have nothing to play for, they have everything to play for, facing their former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. They want to beat the Bears badly.
“But again, bettors are coming in on the Bears. It is surprising to see that we need the Lions in this game. But that’s how the bets are coming in, and I do not see that changing.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is playing his third straight underdog, after winning on Titans +3.5 vs. Chiefs in Week 16 and Browns +4.5 vs. Steelers in Week 17.
For Week 18, he’s on Pittsburgh +3.5 in an 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday battle for the AFC North title.
“With longtime rivals, I’ll take the points here,” McKay said. “The Steelers and Ravens played four weeks ago, and Pittsburgh won 27-22. A few things have changed, but we know that we usually get a hard-hitting, lower-scoring game.”
McKay advised keeping up on the health of both sides. The Steelers could see the return of star pass rusher T.J. Watt (collapsed lung), and QB Tyler Huntley could again start for the Ravens, if Lamar Jackson is still hampered by a back injury.
Speaking of Ravens vs. Steelers …
Winner Take All
Caesars opened Baltimore (8-8 SU/7-9 ATS) as a 3.5-point road favorite, perhaps expecting Jackson to be in the lineup vs. Pittsburgh (9-7 SU/9-6-1 ATS.
On Wednesday night, the Ravens remained -3.5, although early action is on the home underdog.
“This is a nice win-or-go-home game,” Feazel said. “Surprisingly, we are seeing more Steelers money at this point. I expect that to change to more two-way action by Sunday night.”
The total is on the move, getting as low as 40.5 after opening at 43, and it’s 41 on Wednesday night.
“There was sharp action on Under 43, 42.5 and 42,” Feazel said.
Do the Bucs Stop Here?
The Buccaneers are on a potentially season-killing slide of 1-7 SU/0-8 ATS. A Tampa Bay team that was once 6-2 SU might actually miss the playoffs.
Even if the Bucs (7-9 SU/5-11 ATS) beat the Panthers in a 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday meeting, Tampa would still need the Falcons to beat the Saints on Sunday in order to reach the postseason.
Meanwhile, Carolina (8-8 SU/9-7 ATS) has two paths to the NFC South title: Bbeat the Buccaneers, or lose to the Bucs and have the Falcons beat the Saints.
Caesars opened Tampa Bay as a 3-point home favorite vs. Carolina. The spread dipped to Tampa -2.5 on Monday and was at -2.5 (-117) on Wednesday night, though the half-point move is not indicative of early action.
“We’re seeing more Bucs action, which is not surprising,” Feazel said. “It’s not often that we get Panthers money coming in. They’re usually a need for us. But I would not be surprised to see the Panthers win this game.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
As the final week of the regular season arrives, there are no doubt countless futures parlays looking to get to the finish line. That includes a very lucrative potential payout at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Before the season kicked off, a FanDuel customer put all of $25 on a six-leg futures parlay of player props. All six legs were on quarterbacks going over their season touchdown pass total:
Five legs are already in. All that remains is 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers throwing two TDs in Sunday night’s winner-take-all showdown between his Steelers and the Ravens.
With long-shot odds of +213059 — or in easier-to-digest terms, about 2131/1 — if Rodgers reaches 25 TD passes, then the bettor’s modest $25 wager becomes a massive $53,289.90 payday.
That’s a ticket worth waiting four months to cash. If it gets there, of course.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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