Here we are in this last week of the NFL season, and a few of these games actually matter.
I’m into it.
Undoubtedly, we have more fun watching and wagering on these late-season matchups when the guys on the field are actually playing for stakes.
So let’s give it one more go for the regular season with some bets that’ll hopefully put a few extra bucks in our pockets.
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This is a battle of mediocre teams fighting for the NFC South title.
If the Panthers win, they are the division winners and the 4-seed. If the Bucs win, they need the Saints to beat the Falcons to secure their berth. A three-way tie at 8-9 between Atlanta, Tampa and Carolina would result in the Panthers winning the division.
I’m taking the Panthers to cover and win this game.
Quite frankly, the Bucs just stink right now, and I’m wagering against them. They’ve lost seven of their last eight. The last four losses have been terrible. The Saints won by four and the Falcons beat them 29-28 after Tampa blew a 14-point lead late. The Panthers beat them by three points and then last week, the Dolphins won 20-17 — and that game wasn’t even that close.
The Bucs do nothing well and have a roster filled with injuries. It starts with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who’s clearly hurting with his left shoulder injury. Overall, Tampa Bay’s offense is suffering. In the last five weeks, that unit has scored seven fewer points and passed for 40 fewer yards per game.
Mayfield’s passer rating dropped from 99 to 77. So no, I do not believe Mayfield will get his magic back this weekend.
Now, back to Carolina.
The Panthers have been a tricky squad. For 10 straight weeks, Carolina has alternated between winning then losing the following week. When the Panthers are good, they’ve beaten the Packers, Rams and these very same Bucs. When they are bad, they’ve gotten blown out by the Bills and lost twice to the Saints.
It would figure after last weekend’s stinker against the Seahawks that we see the good Panthers. Bryce Young is having the best season of his career and the Panthers’ defense is just much better this year. I expect the best from this team on Saturday afternoon.
PICK: Panthers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
I do not enjoy making this wager, but I think it’s the right side.
I like the Seattle offense to score at will in this game. That means I have to back quarterback Sam Darnold, who I do not trust at all in big matchups.
He’s thrown six interceptions in two games against the Rams this season. Last season, in Week 18 and in the wild-card round, he saw ghosts and didn’t have nearly the same form we saw during most of the regular season. However, the 49ers’ defense is bad without its star players on the field. Injuries have wrecked things and S.F. just can’t rush the passer.
The 49ers have the fewest defensive sacks in the NFL with just 18. They only have six interceptions. They rank 25th in passing yards allowed per game and have an opponent completion percentage that ranks 27th.
The Seahawks’ passing offense, on the other hand, has been outstanding this season.
It’s fifth in DVOA, which helps explain why Seattle scores 29.4 points per game. The 49ers allowed 38 points to the Bears last week, 27 to the Philip Rivers-led Colts and 24 to the Titans’ offense.
I think Seattle will score in this game.
PICK: Seahawks Over 24.5 points scored
There are two Mike Tomlin specials.
The first is wagering against the Steelers when they are road favorites after a big win. The Steelers beat the Lions two weeks ago and then failed to even win the game as 3-point favorites at Cleveland last week.
The second Mike Tomlin special is the opposite wager and that’s taking the Steelers as home underdogs — especially in this matchup against the Ravens. The underdog in the matchup between Mike Tomlin’s Steelers and John Harbaugh’s Ravens is 25-7-3 against the spread (ATS).
The Ravens get Lamar Jackson back at quarterback but his play has declined this season, as he’s gotten beat up. His completion percentage went from 73% in his first five games and down to 57.2% in his last seven games. He’s thrown more interceptions, has fewer passing yards per attempt and only five total touchdowns. His inability to run as often or as successfully has hurt the offense.
We saw last weekend, with Tyler Huntley in the lineup, the run game for the Ravens can control things when it gets going.
I don’t think the Steelers are better than the Ravens, but this is when they thrive. “No one believes in us” and “We stunk in the previous game” — those are the kinds of things they’re saying to hype themselves up.
The Steelers will need more production from some of their skill players without DK Metcalf, who’s serving the final game of his suspension. They’ll need to run the ball better. Everything needs to be slightly better. However, they can rely on their defense and the return of T.J. Watt to win or cover with Steelers voodoo.
PICK: Steelers (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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