With the Super Bowl between the Patriots and the Seahawks on the horizon, I’m going to be digging through different markets over the next days that I like.
Let’s kick off the Big Game betslips with a couple wagers on some props.
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I’m not bullish on New England’s chances to score points against this Seattle defense.
The Seahawks’ defense is first in defensive DVOA, and it is extremely hard to score against if you’re not the Los Angeles Rams.
Seattle’s defense is sound and has playmakers at all three levels. The Seahawks play a ton of zone, tackle well and don’t make many errors. They match up well against New England, which struggles on the offensive line and does not have elite wide receivers.
As a whole, the skill group is fine, but not one player will scare Seattle. The Patriots’ run game has picked up recently but will be tested once again in the Super Bowl. Furthermore, New England’s offense this season has jarring splits when it plays poor defenses versus when it plays good ones.
When the Pats play below-average defenses, they average nearly 32 points per game and only half a turnover per contest. When they play above-average defenses, their offense drops to 22 points per game with 1.5 turnovers per game. So 10 points fewer and one more turnover.
In the Patriots’ three playoff games against top-10 defenses, they put up 18 points per game and nearly two turnovers each contest. That doesn’t include all the fumbles that they recovered. The Pats only scored a single touchdown in two of their three playoff games.
I like New England Under 20.5 points in this game.
PICK: Patriots Under 20.5 points scored
Here’s another prop that I like and it features Pats quarterback Drake Maye.
The most consistent part of the Patriots’ offense this postseason has been Maye’s legs. His ability to rush the football has been a major reason the offense has scored.
He rushed 10 times in both the Chargers and Broncos games, with 65 and 66 yards in those matchups. Against Houston, he only had four rushes for 10 yards.
I believe we will see Maye struggle to move the ball with his legs.
One important factor to the success of a quarterback scrambling is the defense they are facing. Against man-coverage, a QB is able to find the middle of the defense empty, as defenders chase their coverage assignments. He steps back into the pocket to survey the field, is able to see an empty plane and then takes off. It often happened against the Broncos for Maye.
Against a zone defense, there are more defenders over the ball with eyeballs to the quarterback. It’s more difficult for a QB to scramble with a linebacker standing over the ball.
I also believe the Seahawks’ defense will be keyed into Maye’s ability to extend plays with his legs.
PICK: Drake Maye Under 37.5 rushing yards
