It feels like it’s been a lot longer, but the New England Patriots are back in the AFC Championship Game for the first time in seven years.
New England got there on Sunday afternoon with a 28-16 win over the Houston Texans in snowy Foxborough, Mass. The Patriots got three touchdowns from quarterback Drake Maye and five turnovers from their defense. Now, Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel are one win away from the Patriots’ first Super Bowl berth since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won their last one together in 2018.
Here are my takeaways:
1. That championship defense? It belonged to the Patriots, not the Texans
There was so much well-deserved hype about the Texans’ top-ranked defense and how that unit might be capable of carrying the team to a Super Bowl. Well, it turns out, the Patriots’ defense might be just as good.
At least New England was on Sunday, when it picked off four C.J. Stroud passes, forced five turnovers, and held the Texans to just 241 yards. Granted, the Texans didn’t exactly bring an explosive offense with them, but the Pats have now yielded an average of 209.3 yards over the last three games.
And in this game, the Pats defense did everything. New England constantly pressured Stroud, forcing him to rush throws, and its coverage didn’t give him many viable options. New England’s cornerback trio of Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones (a pick-six) and Carlton Davis (two interceptions) were on top of the Texans’ receivers all game.
New England has now surrendered just 448 yards and 19 points in two playoff games. That’s good because the Patriots’ offense hasn’t been easy, turning the ball over five times since the postseason began.
C.J. Stroud was sacked three times and was under pressure early and often. (Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
2. Maye played great, even if he didn’t look like an MVP
It won’t go down as one of his finest performances, but given the circumstances, it was pretty good.
Against the NFL’s best defense, on a snowy day in New England under relentless pressure from a pass rush that sacked him five times, Maye was 16-of-27 for 179 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.
Now, granted, Maye’s four fumbles (two lost) weren’t good. For the most part, though, he stayed out of trouble with his passes against perhaps the NFL’s best secondary, all while being forced to rush far too many of his throws. He was calm in the pocket and surgically took the little bit that was there.
Maye definitely got to hold onto the ball better (that’s six fumbles, three lost, in two playoff games). Considering he’s been sacked 10 times in those two games, though, it’s almost understandable. He’s also got to be more opportunistic. The defense caused five Texans turnovers. The offense didn’t convert any of them into points.
In the end, though, Maye made the plays that mattered — including a near-perfect pass that will be remembered more for Kayshon Boutte’s one-handed touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. Maye managed to stand strong and do what Brady used to do in New England all the time — whatever he had to do to win the game, no matter how unimpressive his final numbers might look.
3. The Texans have a Stroud problem
Stroud was terrible, completing 20 of 47 passes for 212 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions. He was lucky the Patriots could only turn his interceptions into seven points — a pick-six — because this game would have otherwise been completely over before halftime.
And really, for Stroud, these issues have been building since last Monday night’s win in the wild-card round in Pittsburgh, where he threw an interception and had five fumbles (two lost) against the Steelers in a game his defense eventually salvaged.
In this game, like in the last one, he looked rattled, shaky and unsure, which is not the way a franchise quarterback is supposed to look in a big game. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old has not looked like a franchise quarterback since he was a rookie two years ago. His last two seasons have been … blah. He has been decent, but very average and not exactly electric or even productive.
Which begs the question: Is he still a franchise quarterback?
Obviously, the Texans will pick up the fifth-year option on his contract (for 2027) by May 1 because $26.5 million is a low price for a quarterback and Stroud is loaded with talent. If they were thinking about signing him for the long haul, games like this and his recent decline have to give them pause. Elite quarterbacks get around $60 million per year these days. He has some work to do to prove that he’s worth it.
Stroud got time, of course, but next season looms as a big one for him. He’s a good player, and he’s gotten Houston to the playoffs in each of his three seasons. He’ll have to show the Texans he’s still capable of more.
4. New England’s weapons are really underrated
Maye is really good. He also has a lot of really good help.
The Patriots don’t get a lot of credit for having offensive stars, but they have shown they have a lot of dangerous players on that side of the ball. They’ve got an excellent 1-2 punch at running back in rookie TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, who combined for 1,514 yards and 16 touchdowns during the regular season. On Sunday, the duo combined for 95 yards against one of the toughest rushing defenses in the league.
And while Stefon Diggs isn’t as electric as he used to be, he’s still a dangerous weapon that draws the eyes of the defense (4 catches, 40 yards and one touchdown). Maye also has a true, big-play weapon in Boutte (3-75-1), whose spectacular touchdown catch might be one of the greatest plays of the year.
Kayshon Boutte beat one of the best CBs in the NFL in Derek Stingley Jr. before making a sensational catch. (Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Add in the underused and underrated DeMario Douglas (2-38-1) and dangerous tight end Hunter Henry (1-5), and Maye has a lot of places to go with the football. The Texans are better at defense than almost anyone and they found it nearly impossible to defend them all.
4 ½. What’s next?
The narrative surrounding the Patriots all season long was about how they were barely tested thanks to a buttery soft regular-season schedule. They played just four teams that made the playoffs, and only one after Week 5.
Then New England got a banged-up Chargers team in the wild-card round. After that, a turnover-happy Texans team in the Divisional Round. Now, they’re going to the AFC Championship Game to face a Denver Broncos team that just lost its starting quarterback? Are you kidding me?
Some teams just get all the breaks.
That sure is the way it looks for this year for the Patriots (16-3), who will face those Broncos (15-3) in Denver on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET with a berth in Super Bowl LX on the line. While yes, it’s true, the Broncos will be without quarterback Bo Nix (fractured ankle) and will be starting Jarrett Stidham, a quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game in more than two years, they still could be a formidable opponent. Coming off their 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills on Saturday, the top-seeded Broncos have now won 14 of their last 15 games.
The Patriots didn’t play the Broncos during the regular season.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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