And then there were four.
After two lopsided quarterfinals and two instant classics, the College Football Playoff has reached its penultimate stage with only one of the top-4 seeds remaining. By now, we’ve bid farewell to No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech as teams that earned an opening-round bye fell to just 1-7 across the first two years of this expanded 12-team format. Who would have thought that sudden-juggernaut Indiana, which validated its No. 1 ranking by hammering No. 9 Alabama, 38-3, in the Rose Bowl, was poised to buck a trend that has, thus far, confounded one perennial power after another.
It means that our remaining semifinalists are largely unfamiliar with this type of stage, this type of institution-altering opportunity, particularly in the modern era. Only No. 10 Miami, which eliminated the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl, has captured a national championship in the last 60 years, finishing atop the sport’s hierarchy a handful of times in a bygone era: 2001, 1991, 1989, 1987 and 1983. The Hurricanes’ next opponent, No. 6 Ole Miss, last reached the pinnacle in 1960, when the Rebels split a national title with Minnesota. And in the opposite semifinal, where Indiana will meet No. 5 Oregon, there’s not a championship trophy in sight; both schools would be first-time winners. Stories don’t get much better than that.
[2025 College Football Playoff Odds: Lines, Spreads for Each CFP Semifinal Game]
Here’s a breakdown of my predictions for the CFP semifinals:
CFP Predictions: Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Winner: Miami
(Photo by CFP/Getty Images)
First, a nod to what new Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding and his players accomplished by upending Georgia, 39-34, in perhaps the wildest CFP game ever played. Deserted by their original coach, Lane Kiffin, before the postseason even began, the Rebels are writing a story the likes of which this sport has never been seen: Assistant coaches flying back and forth on a near-daily basis between Oxford and LSU, where Kiffin is now in charge, as they try desperately to straddle two jobs at once amid college football’s jam-packed calendar; players bombarded with inquiries and offers to enter the transfer portal — or perhaps turn pro — while navigating the most pressurized week of their careers; a former leader in Kiffin tweeting his thoughts in real time and pocketing ever-increasing bonus checks with each Ole Miss victory. For the Rebels to shoulder all of that and still compartmentalize well enough to avenge a regular season loss to Georgia, the SEC champions, was remarkable — as impressive a feat as each whirling scramble and gutsy throw from star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, the Division II transfer from Ferris State. Never will Ole Miss fans forget that night.
[College Football Playoff Predictions: Nick Saban’s Coaching Tree on Display at Semis]
But is this semifinal against Miami a bridge too far? Is this the week when so many disruptions and distractions finally prove insurmountable? The Rebels enjoyed a significant talent advantage during their opening-round beat-down of No. 11 Tulane, a team from outside the power conferences that Ole Miss had already clobbered earlier this year. And while Georgia was a significantly tougher opponent in the quarterfinals, Ole Miss still benefitted from having a full complement of coaches — minus Kiffin — for game-planning and practice purposes.
That won’t be the case this week as several LSU-bound assistant coaches are reportedly transitioning away from Oxford for good, turning their attention to roster-building efforts in Baton Rouge. It leaves Golding and Ole Miss with something of a skeleton crew to prepare for this week’s semifinal against the Hurricanes while simultaneously navigating the transfer portal, which opened at midnight on Jan. 2, minutes after the Rebels polished off Georgia. Golding assured reporters over the weekend that staffing problems won’t impede Ole Miss, but this is starting to feel like a web so tangled that even the Rebels, who have defied expectations at every turn, might not be able to escape. The dream season is finally cut short.
Peach Bowl: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Winner: Indiana
To suggest that Friday’s game can be boiled down to quarterback play — and, more specifically, which signal-caller performs better in the matchup between Oregon’s Dante Moore and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner — is somewhat dismissive of how well-rounded these teams really are. The Ducks rank 15th nationally in rushing at 206.2 yards per game courtesy of a three-headed attack in which tailbacks Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. have all rushed for at least 570 yards and five touchdowns. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, rank 11th nationally in rushing at 220.7 yards per game thanks to a one-two punch of tailbacks Roman Hemby (formerly of Maryland) and Kaelon Black (formerly of James Madison) that will likely surpass 2,000 combined yards for the season on Friday night. In other words, both teams enjoy enough balance offensively to win this game without next-level performances from their respective quarterbacks.
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
But Moore and Mendoza are, unquestionably, next-level quarterbacks, and it’s possible they could become the top-2 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft if both players decide to leave school early. Scouts and general managers galore will be glued to the Peach Bowl as they continue formulating evaluations for a quarterback class not considered particularly strong at the top. That’s why the head-to-head element between Moore and Mendoza is so intriguing, especially because they already matched wits at Autzen Stadium earlier this season. On that afternoon, Mendoza got the better of Moore in a game that showcased arguably the biggest schism between them: making clutch throws when the pocket collapses. Mendoza, the former Cal transfer, has consistently proven himself to be among the most unflappable quarterbacks in the country. Moore, whose body language around defenders is often wrought with discomfort, leaves plenty to be desired in those moments.
Consider this comparison of how each player performs under pressure based on data from Pro Football Focus (among quarterbacks with at least 95 such dropbacks):
- NFL passer rating — Mendoza 106.8 (1st nationally); Moore 81.8 (14th)
- Passing grade — Mendoza 71.4 (2nd nationally); Moore 58.6 (17th)
- Big-time throws — Mendoza 7 (t-13th nationally); Moore 2 (t-72nd)
- First downs produced — Mendoza 41 (t-7th nationally); Moore 27 (t-57th)
All of which can be reduced to a rather simple question that, more than likely, will dictate the outcome of this game: Can Indiana generate pressure on Moore?
The last time these teams played, on Oct. 11, the Hoosiers harassed Moore to the tune of 24 pressures, six sacks and four additional hits that resulted in a season-high two interceptions. And given what Indiana just did to Alabama’s hulking offensive line last week — slashing the Crimson Tide for 20 pressures, three sacks and five additional quarterback hits, one of which knocked starter Ty Simpson out of the game — it would be unwise to bet against the Hoosiers on Friday night.
Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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