Betting on the Super Bowl is a red, white and blue pastime.
Industry experts estimate that American adults will legally wager over $1.5 billion on next Sunday’s big game between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. And that’s just money inside legal sportsbooks.
The biggest driver of Super Bowl traffic these days is prop bets. Rather than bet on the game’s winner, the point spread or the amount of total points, people want to bet on things like their favorite player to score a touchdown.
Will somebody kick a field goal longer than 38 yards?
Will Sam Darnold throw an interception?
You get it.
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Every year, a week before the game, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas releases a ginormous packet of prop bets. This year’s menu is 53 pages long and offers over 400 different ways to bet the game.
The props were released on Wednesday night and in-person Westgate customers were allowed to fire up to $2,000 a prop with a maximum three bets and then head back to the end of the line if you wanted another whack.
“We wrote low six figures Night 1,” SuperBook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman told me Thursday. “It was busier than a usual first night.”
SuperBook staff monitored the bets in real time.
“They played Mack Hollins Under 29.5, 27.5, and we’re at 25.5 now,” Sherman reported. “They also went Hollins receptions Under 2.5 -110 and -130. We went as high as Under -160, then somebody bet Over.”
It’s truly an exercise in price discovery.
Respected money massages the numbers into place and will continue to do so until kickoff 10 days from now at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
“Jake Bobo Under half a receiving yard (-140),” Sherman continued. “I understand that one, too. The guy was non-existent until he caught that touchdown last game and I think he’ll disappear again.
“We made a number saying we don’t think he’ll do anything. The public just saw it last week, and we expect to get some Over money.
“Remember, all we have is sharp play for the next week or so. The public will start getting involved next Thursday. People are betting between books and sharps are betting their opinions early. That’s what it is.”
Anything else?
“One of our larger moves was first rushing attempt by Rashid Shaheed Under 4.5, 3.5 and 2.5 yards,” Sherman said. “We’re down to 1.5 there.”
I will personally play the first quarter Under 8.5. It’s one of my favorites because offenses tend to be conservative and clunky. Defenses are usually ahead of the game. And sometimes you only get two drives in the first frame. Over the last 11 Super Bowls, the first quarter average is 6.6 points.
Sportsbooks have caught up, though.
The 1Q total was 10 and 9.5 for years and, obviously, you were protected by 10-0 and 7-3 at Under 10, and then 6-3 and 9-0 at Under 9.5.
Under 8.5 is a little close for comfort, but I dare.
