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BigPaulSports > Blog > Game Analysis > Favorite ‘Dogs: Back Home Bears Against Rams, Miami to Upset Indiana
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Favorite ‘Dogs: Back Home Bears Against Rams, Miami to Upset Indiana

BigP
Last updated: 2026/01/13 at 2:56 PM
BigP Published January 13, 2026
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Favorite 'Dogs: Back Home Bears Against Rams, Miami to Upset Indiana
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As we look ahead to what many consider the best football weekend of the year — the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs — it will be hard to top what we just witnessed this past week. 

Dating back to the regular-season finale between the Steelers and Ravens, there have been nine college and pro football games. Seven of those nine came down to the final minute — if not the final play — of the game. Comebacks, upsets and wild fourth quarters have made for an incredible stretch of football. 

So how can this upcoming weekend top that? 

Let’s look ahead and explore which underdogs may be barking. 

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Rams @ Bears

Did the Bears really rally again to beat the Packers? 

What an incredible comeback from a team that has made comebacks its identity, erasing a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit and a 12-point deficit with under six minutes remaining. 

Now, the Bears are once again home underdogs. And how can anyone possibly count them out or dismiss the magic this team seems to have? 

From a matchup standpoint, they get a team from sunny Los Angeles, coming into frigid conditions. The high-powered Rams are not only not used to cold weather, but they now have the MVP favorite, Matthew Stafford, dealing with a potentially sprained finger on his throwing hand. 

Stafford will play, but how effective he will be remains to be seen. 

While many people would say the Rams are the best team in the league, they are not without flaws. They just allowed more than 30 points to the Panthers a couple of weeks after allowing 27 points in a loss to the Falcons. Since the start of December, they’ve surrendered 30 points or more to the Lions and Seahawks, as well. 

The Bears are at home, where the weather they’re accustomed to will be in their favor, and they are playing against a Stafford whose health could be compromised. 

Don’t be surprised if Chicago’s dream season continues for one more week.

PICK: Bears (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright

No. 10 Miami vs. No. 1 Indiana

After being favored against Ole Miss, Miami is back to being in the familiar role of the underdog. 

The Hurricanes were 3.5-point ‘dogs against Texas A&M, 8-point ‘dogs against Ohio State, and they were even a big plus-money price to just make the Playoff in the days leading up to the selection back in December. 

Can Miami pull off one more big upset? 

As scary as it is to bet against the juggernaut that Indiana has become, Miami has the NFL talent — especially on the offensive and defensive lines — to beat anyone. 

The Hurricanes have an offensive line that will give them a chance to run the ball, control the clock and control the time of possession. They have a disruptive front four on defense, the likes of which Indiana has not seen. 

These are all ingredients for the Canes to pull off one more upset and hoist the trophy on their home field. 

The look-ahead line for this game was 5.5 just a few days ago, prior to the semifinals. Now it’s 8.5. If these teams played in the first six weeks of the season, Miami would likely have been favored. 

As great as Indiana is, Miami has the talent to pull off the upset.

PICK: Miami (+8.5) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points or win outright

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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TAGGED: nfl
BigP January 13, 2026
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