And then there were four.
An epic Divisional Round weekend was capped off by another incredible Bears’ rally. But this one fell short in overtime, as the Rams won a game none of us will soon forget.
As we head toward the conference title games, we are quite possibly looking at a Super Bowl rematch. Unless the Broncos and Rams meet in San Francisco on Feb. 8, we will have a rematch of a recent Big Game.
Of the four potential matchups, three of them have occurred somewhat recently.
The Patriots defeated the Seahawks to cap off the 2014 season and also beat the Rams in 2001 and 2018.
The Broncos were blown out by the Seahawks in Giants Stadium in Super Bowl XLVIII, closing out the 2013 season.
So which teams are going home and which two are headed for California? Let’s take a look at both games and make a case for the underdogs.
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No. 2 Patriots @ No. 1 Broncos
The Broncos survived what was a classic on Saturday, outlasting the Bills in overtime in an ending that has stirred controversy.
The Patriots have now won two playoff games. However, they haven’t been particularly impressive in either game — at least not offensively.
It will be backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham starting in place of the injured Bo Nix, with a trip to San Francisco on the line. The case for the Broncos here — and I think it is a good one — is comparing recent lines.
Buffalo just played the Patriots in mid-December, and it was the visiting Bills who closed as 1-point favorites. The Bills then just closed as 1.5-point underdogs in a road game against the Broncos.
Based on this, it’s fair to say the Pats and Broncos are viewed as very comparable teams, with a slight nod to the Broncos.
Now, the Patriots are 5-point favorites in Denver, where home-field advantage is worth roughly two points. So we’re now saying the Patriots, when you weigh in home field, are a touchdown (and extra point) better than the Patriots?
I understand that it’s a backup quarterback going for the Broncos, but I don’t agree that the dropoff from Nix to Stidham is worth a full touchdown. That level of adjustment is typically reserved for the elite QBs of the league.
The Broncos will be home, they have a good defense, and they have a head coach who’s won the Super Bowl. They are getting too many points against a quarterback making his first ever road playoff start.
PICK: Broncos (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points or win outright
Third time is the charm — at least that’s what the winner of the NFC Championship Game will be saying Sunday night.
The Rams won a 21-19 nail-biter back in late November, with the Seahawks throwing four interceptions and missing a field goal as time expired. On Dec. 19, the Seahawks rallied from a big deficit to stun the Rams in overtime, a win that helped the Seahawks capture the 1-seed in the NFC and get this title game in Seattle.
Both teams won their games at home; the Rams won by two, and the Seahawks won by a point.
These teams are as even as it gets.
In a game this competitive, I like getting the points and the plus-money price on the moneyline.
Granted, the Rams twice needed to escape close finishes already in these playoffs, and this will be their third straight road game. But in a game this evenly matched, I’ll take the underdog.
L.A. won the first meeting and led by 16 in the fourth quarter of the second meeting. Give me Los Angeles in what should be another tight game.
PICK: Rams (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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