There are plenty of interesting storylines in NFL Divisional Round odds. Among those is the rare case of a No. 1 seed, the Broncos, sitting as a home underdog.
But perhaps the bigger story: The Bears’ cardiac comebacks — most recently on Wild Card Weekend vs. the Packers — are strongly resonating with the public betting masses.
In short, Chicago is a popular team.
“The amount of Bears action we’ve seen the past month is unprecedented,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on all four matchups, as we roll out NFL Divisional Round betting nuggets.
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Sweet Home Chicago
Twice in the past four weeks, the Bears mounted big fourth-quarter comebacks to post thrilling wins over the Packers.
In Week 16, Chicago was a 1-point home favorite and erased a 13-3 fourth-quarter deficit to win 22-16 in overtime. Then on Wild Card Weekend, the Bears — as 1.5-point home underdogs — trailed 21-6 in the fourth quarter and pulled off a thrilling 31-27 victory.
In NFL Divisional Round odds, Chicago is again a home underdog, this time getting four points vs. the Rams. That runs counter to the Bears being the No. 2 seed and the Rams being the No. 5 seed, which tells you what the oddsmakers think about this 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday showdown.
However, the public masses disagree.
“L.A. is our No. 1 power-rated team,” Feazel said. “But we’re in kind of a unique spot where we are seeing more Bears money. They bet the Bears last weekend, and there’s just more excitement for the Bears this week.”
Caesars opened the Rams as 3.5-point favorites and has already toggled up to Rams -4 several times this week, even with the Bears getting a fair amount of point-spread play.
But more so, bettors are banking on Chicago to post another outright upset.
“The action right now on the Bears is more on the moneyline. Action is a little more balanced on the spread,” Feazel said. “We’re gonna need the Rams. The Rams are a good [Super Bowl] futures position for us.
“We’d like to see the Rams win, and the Bears cover.”
Chicago enters the game at 12-6 straight up (SU) and 11-6-1 against the spread (ATS). Similarly, the Rams are 13-5 SU/11-7 ATS).
Frigid Air
Also worth noting in the Rams-Bears matchup: bone-numbing weather in Chicago on Sunday night. Temperatures could be in the low teens, perhaps even single digits, and with winds of 15-25 MPH, the real feel could be subzero.
That’s impacting the total, with early action bringing the number down. Caesars opened at 51 and as of Wednesday was at 48.5.
“There’s a lot more Under money so far this week. It’s gonna be cold, and the Rams are a West Coast indoor team,” Feazel said. “But when we get to game day, you’re always gonna see Over action. People want to see high scoring and a lot of action.”
NFL Rocks on FOX
On Saturday night, the sixth-seeded 49ers and top-seeded Seahawks step into the FOX prime-time spotlight, for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff.
These two teams just met in Week 18, with the NFC’s top seed on the line. Seattle’s defense stuffed San Francisco in a 13-3 road win, with the Seahawks a 2.5-point favorite.
This time, the Seahawks are at home and well-rested coming off a bye, so the spread is substantially larger. Caesars opened at Seattle -7, spent time at -7.5 early in the week and on Wednesday was at Seahawks -7 (-114).
San Fran, coming off a 23-19 road upset as 5.5-point underdogs vs. the Eagles, is 13-5 SU/12-6 ATS. Seattle is 14-3 SU/12-5 ATS, tying the Jaguars for the NFL’s best spread-covering record in the regular season.
“There was heavy sharp action against the 49ers on Wild Card Weekend, taking the Eagles. And that was the wrong side,” Feazel said. “This time, sharp action is a little bit more on the 49ers.”
San Fran is also getting a fair amount of public action, more so in Caesars’ Nevada market, which Feazel noted is a haven for 49ers bettors. So the book is hoping for a Seahawks win by less than a touchdown.
“We’re probably going to want Seattle to win and San Francisco to cover,” Feazel said.
Public Patriots
As the season progressed, the second-seeded Patriots (15-3 SU/13-5 ATS) flipped from a stay-away team to an auto bet for the public masses. New England is a money-making 12-3 ATS in its last 15 outings, including a 16-3 victory as 3.5-point home favorites vs. the Chargers in the wild-card round.
Feazel doesn’t expect the public to back off this week in Sunday’s 3 p.m. ET matchup vs. the fifth-seeded Texans (13-5 SU/12-6 ATS). Houston is riding a 10-game win streak (7-3 ATS), including a 30-6 wild-card rout as a 3.5-point favorite at Pittsburgh.
“It’s a shorter week for the Texans, since they played on Monday night. And Nico Collins is questionable,” Feazel said, alluding to the Houston wideout being in concussion protocol.
“Action isn’t as one-sided as the Broncos-Bills game, but there’s more money on the Patriots.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is on a four-game run in the NFL, including a win on Texans -3 vs. Steelers in the wild-card round. As noted above, Houston posted a 30-6 blowout, with its vaunted defense scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns.
That’s enough to keep McKay on the Texans this week, this time as a road underdog. He already bet Houston +3.5, and he still likes the Texans at their midweek odds of +3 (even).
“This defense reminds me of the 2001 Baltimore Ravens,” McKay said. “Hopefully, C.J. Stroud doesn’t mess it up like he did against the Steelers.”
Stroud lost two fumbles and threw an interception vs. Pittsburgh. But the Texans’ D bailed him out time after time. McKay expects Houston’s offense to get more in on the act this week.
“I believe the Texans’ offensive line is better and will have success that the Chargers didn’t. And I believe Houston’s experience will win out,” he said.
Top Dog an Underdog
The Broncos (14-3 SU/7-10 ATS) earned the AFC’s top seed. Yet the sixth-seeded Bills (13-5 SU/9-9 ATS) are short road favorites in Saturday’s 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Caesars opened Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite, and the Bills have been at either -1.5 or -1 so far. As of Wednesday afternoon, it was Bills -1 (even).
A big reason Denver is the rare home underdog in NFL Divisional Round odds: power ratings.
“The sentiment with the Broncos getting a lot of close wins, is that their record doesn’t reflect their power rating in the market,” Feazel said. “The Bills have the top power rating among AFC teams.
“So the Broncos potentially going off as a ‘dog wouldn’t be surprising.”
The game is still a few days out, so there’s a chance the point spread could flip and Denver could close as a short home favorite. Feazel isn’t counting on that, because the masses are on Josh Allen & Co.
“We’re gonna see sharp action come in on the Broncos, and the public on the Bills,” he said. “I don’t see that changing, especially on game day. The Broncos will probably be our biggest need of the weekend.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Through 12 weeks of the regular season, the Bears were a surprising 8-3 SU. But oddsmakers still weren’t sold on coach Ben Johnson’s speedy reversal of Chicago’s fortunes.
Ahead of the Bears’ Week 13 Black Friday game at Philadelphia, BetMGM still had Chicago at +6600 to win the Super Bowl.
A high-roller then took a shot, putting $50,000 on the Bears. Chicago followed with a 24-15 win over Philly. And with that, the Bears finally shed their long-shot status.
As noted above, Chicago is a home ‘dog vs. Los Angeles on Sunday night. If Chicago wins and Seattle wins, the Bears will surely be sizable road underdogs in the NFC Championship Game.
And the Bears will almost assuredly be Super Bowl underdogs, if they get that far.
But if Chicago runs the table, then that bettor hauls in a hefty $3.3 million.
That’s the largest potential payout on any Super Bowl bet so far.
Here’s hoping it survives the weekend!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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