All six matchups on the NFL wild-card oddsboard will draw plenty of action from the public betting masses, especially since Wild Card Weekend comes in the wake of the Thursday-Friday semifinals.
But sharp bettors, who often dial in early, have already found a target they like.
“49ers–Eagles is the one game where we’ve seen sharp action, both on the spread and on the total,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said Wednesday afternoon.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on all six matchups, as we roll out NFL Wild Card Weekend betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles finished the regular season at 11-6 straight up (SU) and 10-7 against the spread (ATS), earning the No. 3 seed.
Up next: The No. 6 seed 49ers (12-5 SU/11-6 ATS), who had a shot at the No. 1 seed, but got shut down — and more banged up — in a 13-3 Week 18 home loss to the Seahawks.
Caesars Sports opened the Eagles as 3.5-point home favorites, but that number was gone by lunchtime on Monday, advancing to Eagles -4. By dinner time Monday, the Eagles were up to -4.5, where they remained Wednesday night ahead of Sunday’s 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
“There was sharp action on Philadelphia at -3.5, and sharp action on the Under,” Feazel said, noting the total is down to 44.5 from a 46.5 opener. “The sharps are expecting the Eagles to grind this out and take advantage of an injured 49ers team.”
San Fran has dealt with injuries all season long, and this week is no exception. Wideout Ricky Pearsall (knee) and left tackle Trent Williams (hamstring) didn’t practice Wednesday, and tight end George Kittle (ankle) was limited. All three are questionable.
On defense, linebackers Dee Winters (ankle) and Luke Gifford (quad) are also questionable. But Caesars’ risk room will need the Niners to show up on Sunday.
“We expect some 49ers money to come in. But what we’ll probably need is an Eagles win and a 49ers cover,” Feazel said. “Right now, it’s one-way traffic on the Eagles.”
NFL Rocks on FOX, Part II
The NFL wild-card odds market opens on FOX, as well, with a 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday meeting between the No. 5 Rams and No. 4 Panthers.
Yes, a 12-5 Los Angeles team is on the road against an 8-9 Carolina outfit that got into the postseason in rather unorthodox fashion. The Panthers lost at Tampa Bay 16-14 in Week 18, so both teams finished 8-9, and the Bucs would’ve won a two-way tiebreaker.
But then the Falcons edged the Saints 19-17 to also finish 8-9. And the Panthers won the three-way tiebreaker, so here we are.
“Carolina got into the playoffs in the most NFC South kind of way,” Feazel said.
And even though the Panthers upset the Rams 31-28 as 10-point home underdogs in Week 13, oddsmakers are unimpressed with Bryce Young & Co. The Rams opened as 10-point road favorites and are up to -10.5 as of Wednesday night.
L.A. was a respectable 11-6 ATS in the regular season, while Carolina was a middling 9-8 ATS. A double-digit point spread isn’t scaring off Rams customers.
“It’s a lot of points, and people are laying them. It’s one-way traffic coming in on the Rams,” Feazel said. “The market and bettors do not believe in this Panthers team nearly as much as this Rams team.”
Rematch of a Rematch
The Bears (11-6 SU/10-6-1 ATS) and Packers (9-7-1 SU/6-11 ATS) meet for the third time this season, having split the first two meetings.
In Week 14, Green Bay was a 6.5-point home favorite and beat Chicago 28-21. The Bears repaid the favor in Week 16 with a stunning late rally to win 22-16 in overtime as 1-point home underdogs.
The Packers have been plagued by injuries of late, none bigger than star pass rusher Micah Parsons’ torn ACL in Week 15. Green Bay enters this 8 p.m. ET Saturday showdown on a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS).
“Ever since the Micah Parsons injury, this Packers team has been a little flat,” Feazel said.
Caesars opened No. 2 seed Chicago -1, but the favorite has flipped multiple times in this game. As of Wednesday night, No. 6 seed Green Bay is -1.5, despite Chicago getting more attention for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday showdown.
“Early bettors are on the Bears. But I think this will end up being a two-way-action game. The public will come in late on the Packers,” Feazel said.
Josh vs. Jags
The Chiefs are the one hurdle Josh Allen and the Bills haven’t been able to clear in postseason play. Allen is 0-4 in the playoffs vs. Kansas City.
However, Kansas City fell apart this year and didn’t make the playoffs. Perhaps that’s just what Buffalo needs to finally return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1993-94 season.
One problem for Allen & Co.: The Bills (12-5 SU/8-9 ATS) are the No. 6 seed, meaning they’ll almost certainly need three road wins in order to reach the Feb. 8 title game.
Another issue: The third-seeded Jaguars (13-4 SU and ATS) are on an eight-game win streak and are the NFL’s best spread-covering outfit.
Still, Buffalo is a modest favorite for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff, toggling between -1 and -1.5 so far this week at Caesars. And the Bills are by far the more public team.
“This is the game I’m most looking forward to,” Feazel said. “As expected, we’re seeing mostly Bills action. I don’t see that changing. In fact, we expect to see Bills money throughout the playoffs.”
The total is also getting attention, opening at 51.5, rising to 52.5 and sitting at 52 on Wednesday night.
“This game has the highest total on the board. Both these teams can score points, and both defenses are nothing to write home about,” Feazel said. “We’re definitely gonna need the Jaguars and the Under in this one.”
Sunday Night Lights
The Patriots (14-3 SU/12-5 ATS) host the No. 7 Chargers in an 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday start. Drake Maye and New England are arguably the biggest surprise of the season, getting the No. 2 seed this year after back-to-back 4-13 campaigns.
Caesars opened the Patriots as 4-point home favorites, but the line quickly went to -3.5, where it remains Wednesday night.
“This game has seen a little movement toward the Chargers. Sharp bettors took +4,” Feazel said, while noting that overall, L.A. is also more popular — for now. “We’re seeing a lot of Chargers money come in on the spread and the moneyline.
“But I expect we’ll see Patriots money coming in by Sunday, with the respect that Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel have gotten this year. I think it’ll be two-way action by game day.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is on a three-game run in the NFL, riding underdogs to wins in Weeks 16-18. But he’s flipping to a favorite in NFL wild-card odds, and a road favorite, no less.
McKay is taking the No. 5 seed Texans as a 3-point favorite vs. the No. 4 Steelers, in an 8:15 p.m. ET Monday night start.
“This is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh, against Houston’s highly rated defense,” McKay said. “And on the other side of the ball, I trust C.J. Stroud & Co. to make big plays to win and cover, against a Pittsburgh defense that has secondary issues.”
McKay is hardly alone with his pick. Read on.
Taking the Texans
The Texans (12-5 SU/11-6 ATS) are as hot as the Jags right now, winning eight in a row and going 7-1 ATS in that stretch. Pittsburgh (10-7 SU/10-6-1 ATS) made the playoffs with a thrilling 26-24 home win over Baltimore in Week 18.
Caesars opened Houston as a 3-point road favorite and has already made several trips to -3.5, though the line is Texans -3 on Wednesday night.
“The betting public is providing one-way traffic on the Texans. That’s where all the action is coming,” Feazel said. “A lot of bets are coming in on the Under, too.
“We’ll see more Steelers money coming in Sunday. Pittsburgh always drives action. But right now, it’s all Texans and Under.”
The total is a tidy 39.5, easily the lowest on the NFL wild-card oddsboard, with 49ers-Eagles the second-lowest at 44.5.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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