When the NFL season began, the Patriots and Seahawks were afterthoughts in Super Bowl 60 odds. Bookmakers had Seattle at +6000 or longer to win the championship, and New England was an even longer shot at +10000 (100/1).
Five months later, though, it’s Patriots vs. Seahawks, with the NFL somewhat mimicking the College Football Playoff, which saw preseason long-shot Indiana win the national title.
But make no mistake, even with an unexpected matchup, Super Bowl 60 betting will still be huge and is off to a strong start.
“There’s a lot of shock with who’s here,” Caesars Sports director of football trading Joey Feazel said. “But we’re gonna see really heavy action on this game, regardless of the teams, with the magnitude of this event and the magnitude of ways to bet.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Patriots vs. Seahawks, as we take an early look at Super Bowl betting.
Middle Ground
The Seahawks are 16-3 straight up (SU) and a covering cash cow at 14-5 against the spread (ATS). The Patriots are 17-3 SU and a money-making 14-6 ATS.
But the point spread isn’t quite as close as the two teams’ records. Caesars Sports opened Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite in Super Bowl odds and advanced to -5 a few times in the first 12 hours or so.
The Seahawks returned to -4.5 on Monday morning and remained there Thursday evening.
Yet even with more than a week until Super Bowl Sunday, Feazel can tell where things are heading and what Caesars Sports will likely be rooting for, come 6:30 p.m. ET Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium.
“Public action is flowing on Seattle on the spread. The public isn’t buying the Patriots,” Feazel said. “But we’ll have a decent amount of Patriots moneyline action by game day. We’ll see Patriots +190 action on the moneyline and people laying 4.5 with the Seahawks.
“So we’re gonna be rooting for that Super Bowl middle. Our best-case scenario is gonna be a Seahawks win and a Patriots cover.”
Also, heavily factoring into that scenario: Before the conference championship games, Caesars took a whopping $2 million bet on AFC +200 to win the Super Bowl. That represents a potential $4 million win for the bettor (total payout $6 million).
FOX Sports will have more Friday on that massive major wager and other notable Super Bowl bets.
Go Low
Caesars opened the Super Bowl total at 46.5 and has been steady at 45.5 since Tuesday morning. No surprise, professional bettors took an early bite on Under 46.5 and Under 46.
“There was sharper action on the Under. The Seahawks have a phenomenal defense, and the Patriots’ defense really stepped up in these last three games,” Feazel said.
However, this is the Super Bowl. The public betting masses want nothing to do with a boring game. On the total, they’ll be wagering on the Over. And on the myriad Super Bowl prop bets, the masses will flood the zone with Over or Yes picks.
All that money will dwarf sharp action.
“At the end of the day, it’s the Super Bowl. So we’ll need the Under,” Feazel said. “Early action favors the Over, and that will not change. We’re gonna need a lower-scoring game.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay isn’t yet sure which team he’ll back in Super Bowl 60 odds, saving that decision for closer to game day.
But he’s already singled out a Super Bowl prop bet he likes. On the Yes/No of whether Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws an interception, McKay is on Yes -125.
“I think that’s a pretty cheap price,” McKay said. “He’s a young quarterback on the big stage of the Super Bowl. So there’s all that.
“Plus, he’ll have to press, because I believe Seattle will have the lead. And the Seahawks have a very opportunistic defense.”
