We are less than a week away from crowning a new champion in the National Football League.
A Super Bowl between the Patriots and Seahawks would have been unfathomable back in August, but on Sunday, it will become reality.
Either Drake Maye will become the youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl or Sam Darnold will put an exclamation point on one of the great redemption stories in recent memory.
As we inch closer to the big day, let’s take a look at a few prop bets I have my eye on.
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Kenneth Walker Over/Under 71.5 Rushing Yards
It’s fair to question the strength of the Patriots’ schedule in their run to the AFC title, but it’s hard to question how good the run defense has been for New England.
In the playoffs, they held Chargers’ running back Kimani Vidal to 31 yards and under 3 yards per carry, then stymied the Texans, allowing just 48 rushing yards. In the AFC Title Game, the Patriots limited Broncos’ running back RJ Harvey to 37 yards, rushing at under 3 yards per carry.
Also, with an Under wager, it’s always possible to win if the player you’re betting against gets hurt at some point or if the game script becomes unfavorable (the Patriots building a big lead).
Walker going over this number will be tough against the stout run of defense of the Patriots.
PICK: Kenneth Walker Under 71.5 rushing yards
TreVeyon Henderson Over/Under 2.5 Receiving Yards
Nine years ago, the Patriots completed a historic comeback against the Falcons, erasing a 28-3 deficit and winning in overtime. A big key in that rally was Patriots’ running back James White, who caught 14 passes for 110 yards and scored three touchdowns.
Will Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels take a page out of his own playbook from that game and feed the rookie running back with some targets on Sunday night?
The Seahawks have a defense that ranks near the top of the league in pressure rate, so having some screen passes dialed up as a counter to help Maye settle in with easy throws could be a strategy the Patriots deploy.
Henderson also caught a pass in each of the first two playoff wins for the Patriots.
PICK: TreVeyon Henderson Over 2.5 receiving yards
1st Quarter Under 8.5 Points Scored
Super Bowls are typically low-scoring to start. Even last year, in a game that saw 62 total points scored between the Chiefs and Eagles, it was just 7-0 midway through the second quarter.
Darnold and Maye are both making their Super Bowl debuts, and so are both head coaches, Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald.
I could see some early jitters from both offenses, in what could be a defensive struggle.
PICK: 1st Quarter Under 8.5 Points Scored
