With the Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo duopoly presumably disappearing into the rearview mirror, the battle for the Ballon d’Or hasn’t felt so open for the best part of 20 years, with countless players now beginning each campaign believing they have a chance of claiming the most prestigious individual prize football has to offer. Ousmane Dembele emerged from a career plagued with inconsistencies to win the Golden Ball in 2025, and he was among a crowded field of contenders as the 2026 race got going.
Dembele largely secured the award off the back of his performances in helping Paris Saint-Germain win their first European Cup, and the Champions League is yet again likely to have a big say on the Ballon d’Or battle this time around. However, it’s also a World Cup year, so there is a chance that the eventual winner doesn’t become clear until the summer in North America.
Don’t forget, too, that the Africa Cup of Nations will also be taken into account, meaning there could be some players who not only shine for their clubs but also impress at two major tournaments over the course of the campaign.
The Ballon d’Or race is a marathon not a sprint, and it’s worth bearing in mind that Dembele didn’t emerge as a potential victor until midway through the 2024-25 campaign. However, with the European season now past its halfway mark and the Champions League knockout rounds under way, GOAL’s Ballon d’Or Power Rankings continue to track the likeliest winners of the Golden Ball over the coming weeks and months:
Previous update: January 30, 2026.
Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal) 🆕
In 2025-26: Seven goals, four assists.
Rodri showed in 2024 that a deep-lying midfielder who wins both the Premier League and a summer tournament can triumph in the Ballon d’Or race, and now Martin Zubimendi is looking to follow in his Spain team-mates’ footsteps. Of course, neither title is yet assured for Zubimendi, but with Arsenal also among the favourites for the Champions League, he could yet produce an even more memorable campaign than Rodri did two years ago.
Zubimendi has been one of the Premier League signings of the season, and with Mikel Arteta’s side not having a standout goal-scorer or creative player who could push for individual honours, the ex-Real Sociedad man could yet emerge as their prime candidate during the final months of the campaign.
Pedri (Barcelona) 🆕
In 2025-26: Four goals, eight assists. Won Supercopa de Espana.
Pedri remains one of the most masterful midfielders in the game despite having only just turned 23, with Barcelona only able to truly tick when their maestro in the middle of the park is available. That has not always been the case this season, with injury issues again beginning to plague Pedri, but when he has been fit, there have been few better players in La Liga.
Hansi Flick’s side are currently on track to defend their domestic crown while remaining among the contenders to challenge for the Champions League, and Pedri will also be a key member of Spain’s squad as they go in search of World Cup glory. As long as he remains out of the treatment room, another Ballon d’Or nomination should already be assured.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr) 🆕
In 2025-26: 27 goals, four assists.
Only one man, Sir Stanley Matthews, has ever won the Ballon d’Or aged 40 or above, and Ronaldo joining that exclusive club may well seem farfetched to those whose focus remains on the European game. However, he continues to bang in the goals in Saudi Arabia, and he may well finally break his trophy duck in the Middle East this season. After a mid-season blip, Al-Nassr are back on top of the Pro League table while Ronaldo & Co. are the strong favourites to win the AFC Champions League Two (Asia’s equivalent of the Europa League).
With FIFA having given the five-time Ballon d’Or winner a reprieve so that he can play in the World Cup from the very start, he will again be leading the line for a Portugal team that will fancy their chances after winning the UEFA Nations League last year. Should Ronaldo taste success at club and international level over the next six months, he might not be able to be denied another Golden Ball.
Raphinha (Barcelona) ⬇️
In 2025-26: 13 goals, five assists. Won Supercopa de Espana.
For some, Raphinha finishing fifth in the 2025 Ballon d’Or voting was a disgrace given the quite frankly ridiculous attacking numbers he posted for Barcelona. They had a point, too, and it seems that the Brazilian is keen to get himself back among the contenders after shaking off a nagging hamstring problem that stalled his progress through the opening months of the campaign.
His match-winning performance against Real Madrid in the final of the Supercopa de Espana capped a fine return to form from Raphinha, and he now looks set to again show defences no mercy in Spain or in Europe through the second half of the season. He will also be one of the leaders for Brazil at the World Cup, with the Selecao having shown improvements under Carlo Ancelotti as the tournament nears.
Gabriel Magalhaes (Arsenal) 🆕
In 2025-26: Four goals, four assists, 19 clean sheets.
Perhaps no player encapsulates modern-day Arsenal more than Gabriel Magalhaes, with the Brazil international having emerged as one of the most dangerous set-piece weapons within the Premier League while his physical style of defending has rarely been as en vogue within the past couple of decades as it is right now.
Though William Saliba remains as classy as ever, Gabriel should now be considered the more important of Arsenal’s centre-back duo, and if he can keep popping up with important goals down the stretch while keeping them out at the other end, then a strong World Cup with the Selecao should be enough to rubber-stamp himself a place among the Ballon d’Or nominees.
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) ↔️
In 2025-26: 22 goals, 19 assists. Won MLS Cup.
He couldn’t, could he?! The days of Lionel Messi even being nominated for the Ballon d’Or were thought to be behind us, but after guiding Inter Miami to their first-ever MLS Cup and with Argentina remaining among the favourites to win the World Cup, there is a real chance that the eight-time winner finds himself back in the running for the Golden Ball come the summer.
Messi proved to be a class apart on his way to winning a second-straight MLS MVP award as he provided six goals and seven assists in Miami’s six play-off matches alone, and certainly that success at club level would be taken into account if he can help Argentina defend their global crown in North America in 2026. For all the talent around him, Messi remains at the heart of the Albiceleste’s line-up, and thus any triumph in the country he now calls home will likely be attributed largely to him once more.
Declan Rice (Arsenal) ⬇️
In 2025-26: Five goals, 12 assists.
Declan Rice announced himself as one of the world’s elite midfielders with his performances against Real Madrid in last season’s Champions League, and the Arsenal man has gone from strength to strength since. Rice is now one of the Gunners’ most important players as they go in search of not just the Premier League title but also a first-ever Champions League triumph, after winning all eight of their league phase fixtures in Europe.
Rice’s driving runs, defensive contributions and set-piece deliveries mean games rarely pass him by, while he is also a certain starter for a Thomas Tuchel-led England side that is looking more than capable of ending 60 years of hurt by winning the 2026 World Cup.
Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid) 🆕
In 2025-26: 14 goals, 12 assists.
Vinicius Jr endured a miserable 2025 when it came to his performances for Real Madrid, managing just eight goals La Liga over the course of the year as his Ballon d’Or revenge tour went awry. However, as the old adage goes, form is temporary but class is permanent, and Vini has been showing that he can still prove decisive during a hot streak to kick off 2026.
The former Flamengo talent will have to remain at his best to help deliver silverware to the Bernabeu, while his abysmal record with Brazil desperately needs to improve by the time the World Cup kicks off. But if he can achieve those goals, then Vinicius could force himself right back into the Golden Ball running once again.
Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain) ⬇️
In 2025-26: Six goals, 10 assists. Won Trophee des Champions, UEFA Super Cup & FIFA Intercontinental Cup.
Vitinha came a long way since his underwhelming loan spell at Wolves five years ago to finish on the Ballon d’Or podium in 2025, and the PSG dictator-in-chief is now regarded by many as the best midfielder on the planet. Certainly, he has played in such a fashion during the first half of the season, and has even added more goals and assists to his game, as highlighted by his hat-trick to beat Tottenham in the Champions League in November.
He will also form part of a Portugal squad next summer that, after winning the Nations League, has a genuine belief that they can triumph at the World Cup. Should they do so, then Vitinha will likely have played a massive part.
Luis Diaz (Bayern Munich) ⬆️
In 2025-26: 21 goals, 17 assists. Won DFL-Supercup.
Liverpool fans might be forgiven for wondering whether their season might not be in such turmoil had Luis Diaz not been sold over the summer. The versatile forward played an important role in the Reds’ title triumph of 2024-25, but his desire for a new challenge led to the Anfield outfit accepting a €75 million (£65.5m/$88m) bid from Bayern Munich for the Colombia international.
Diaz hasn’t looked back since, having struck up a fine understanding with Harry Kane and the rest of his Bayern team-mates. Some of his strikes in the Bundesliga have been stunning, while his double to beat PSG in the Champions League was the kind of match-winning display that catches Ballon d’Or voters’ eyes, even if it also included a red card.
Factor in Diaz will be playing at his first World Cup this summer for a Colombia team who are being tipped as dark horses, and he has all the makings of a Golden Ball contender.
Michael Olise (Bayern Munich) ↔️
In 2025-26: 15 goals, 26 assists. Won DFL-Supercup.
Anyone who predicted that Michael Olise would struggle to make the step up from Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich has been sorely mistaken, with the wideman having strung together a year or so of fantastic performances for the Bundesliga champions. Equally capable of scoring as he is creating goals for others, the 24-year-old has grown into one of the most fearsome forward players in the German top-flight while also making his mark on the Champions League.
Olise’s club performances have also helped him lock down a starting spot in the France line-up despite intense competition for places. As such, he could be one of the stars of the upcoming World Cup for one of the favourites to lift the trophy.
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) ↔️
In 2025-26: 16 goals, 16 assists. Won Supercopa de Espana.
The bookmakers’ favourite heading into the season, Lamine Yamal is well on course to become the first player under the age of 21 to win the Ballon d’Or – and he wouldn’t even have to win it in 2026 to do so! The Barcelona teenager’s performances in the latter stages of last season’s Champions League saw him emerge in the eyes of many as the finest footballer in the world, and his runners-up finish behind Dembele in the Golden Ball voting was testament to that.
There are those who still believe he needs to produce more decisive moments in the biggest games, while there are concerns that the number of matches Yamal has played at such a young age are leading to an increase in injury issues. Barca, meanwhile, need to fix their defensive deficiencies if they are to win the Champions League, meaning Yamal might need to lean heavily on his displays for Spain at the World Cup if he is to take home the Ballon d’Or.
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) ⬇️
In 2025-26: 43 goals, nine assists.
Is this the year Kylian Mbappe finally gets his hands on the Ballon d’Or? Almost from the moment he emerged as a teenager at Monaco, the forward has been anointed a future Golden Ball winner. But having recently celebrated his 27th birthday, Mbappe is still waiting for his opportunity to stand atop the podium in Paris.
So far, he could have done little more to give himself the best chance possible to end that wait, with Mbappe having carried a struggling Real Madrid this term with a number of match-winning goals. He has also saved the best international performances of his career for World Cups, and so expect the France captain to go the distance in this race.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City) ⬆️
In 2025-26: 42 goals, nine assists.
After an underwhelming season by his own lofty standards, Erling Haaland went into ‘Terminator Mode’ to begin the current campaign, becoming a one-man battering ram for Manchester City as they aimed to re-establish themselves as challengers for both the Premier League and Champions League. Already well on his way to a third Golden Boot in four seasons, defences had been powerless to stop the 25-year-old until he went through an extended drought around the New Year, though he now seems to be emerging through the other side of that dry spell.
Haaland’s stunning numbers for City would have put him in the Ballon d’Or conversation anyway, but his chances this time are boosted by Norway’s first qualification for the World Cup since 1998, giving their star striker the chance to appear at a major tournament for the first time. The Scandinavians are merely dark horses to triumph in North America, but Haaland could yet use the global stage to put a bow on his Golden Ball bid if all goes well at club level.
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) ↔️
In 2025-26: 48 goals, five assists. Won DFL-Supercup.
There will always be those who don’t fully appreciate Harry Kane, but now that he has got the trophy monkey off his back that so many used against him over the years, the Bayern Munich striker looks like a man on a mission, utterly determined to show that he is also worthy of individual recognition as he continues to score at a record-breaking pace.
As well as netting mountains of goals, Kane has showcased his all-round game to devastating effect for the Bundesliga champions, and if he can maintain this form, then further silverware will be coming his way at the end of the season. England fans, meanwhile, are praying that their captain doesn’t again run out of steam before the summer, with Kane key to the Three Lions’ hopes of ending their agonising wait for a major honour at international level.
