With a new league year comes new team structures, and the Chiefs have started to remake their squad for the 2026 NFL season.
The most newsworthy and impactful roster transaction was trading All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams for a handful of draft picks, including a first-round selection in next month’s draft.
Along with McDuffie, the Chiefs lost Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook and Joshua Williams from the secondary. Linebacker Leo Chenal won’t be back for 2026 either. On defense, the Chiefs added Khyiris Tonga and Alohi Gilman, and they will look at adding a pass rusher and cornerback early in the draft.
The Chiefs’ splashiest signing was running back Kenneth Walker from Seattle. The Super Bowl MVP will be a huge boost to that offense. Their running back room was the worst in the NFL last year, and they were last in explosive runs.
Walker is fantastic at splash plays, and even if the Chiefs don’t tailor the offense to Walker, he will help immensely.
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Then there’s Travis Kelce, who’ll return for his 14th season, in the wake of those laughable reports that he was considering another home for 2026. Kansas City’s offensive line will replace Taylor with Moore but will need to add receivers in the draft and in the second wave of free agency.
The health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be the defining factor for Kansas City’s success next season. He tore his ACL late in the season, but all reports indicate he will be ready for Week 1. The Chiefs’ win total is set at 10.5, with the expectation he’ll be starting when the season opens.
Right now, though, there’s just no argument to make for the Chiefs’ win total Over.
K.C. is surely going to have a better record in close games, but the question marks from last season still linger. Where is the easy offense? Who are the impact receivers? The run game will be better with Walker, but are the Chiefs committed to it? The offensive line is above average (if healthy) but depth — just like every team — will be tested.
And then, of course, we have to go back to Mahomes.
We know it takes significant time to start feeling like yourself after a major knee injury, but Mahomes is superhuman. Maybe he’s not rusty or doesn’t feel the effects of playing on a repaired knee, but I’d rather be cautious about my outlook than overshoot.
Also, I have faith Andy Reid is going to retool and reform the offense, even though he hasn’t shown that willingness in recent years. If he does make those changes, I’d feel good about Kansas City’s offensive production.
The biggest hole on this team continues to be its pass rush outside of Chris Jones. It stinks and the Chiefs’ defense has gotten away with it because the secondary has been so good. Now that secondary is much younger and doesn’t have McDuffie. Without making additions to the defense, that unit looks worse on paper than it did last season.
The Chiefs’ schedule features a difficult division slate with two against the Chargers, Broncos and an improved Raiders team. The AFC West plays the NFC West and AFC East, so there are some wins on the schedule with those teams.
Finally, the Chiefs get three games against three other third-place teams. The schedule is more manageable than ever, but again, those questions about the roster and the offense still loom.
If I had to make a wager on the Chiefs win total now, it would be Under.
I do, however, think there are plenty of opportunities to take the Chiefs during the season. Until the schedule order is released, it’s difficult to find that sweet spot. But if Kansas City shows that its offense has improved and that Mahomes is healthy, the Chiefs will find success next season.
