After the Las Vegas Raiders select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first pick in this week’s NFL Draft, the real questions mount.
Which defensive player will the New York Jets take?
Will a running back go in the top three?
Do we get a run on wide receivers?
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Betting markets are obviously fluid, mostly because NFL insiders can swing a price just by sending a tweet or dropping a nugget on live television.
The volatility has handcuffed draft betting in Las Vegas.
“We got killed every year,” South Point director of race and sports Chris Andrews told me. “We haven’t booked the draft since it was here [in 2022].”
Circa Sports used to post tons of betting options around mid-March. One year, they posted Over/Unders on 50 players.
Fifty!
This year, they hung 19 players on April 15 with a maximum bet of $300.
Them’s the breaks.
Here are four draft bets I made on Tuesday:
Francis Mauigoa Under 8.5
Francis Mauigoa Top-5 pick
A consensus All-American and a monster of a man at 6-foot-6 and 330 pounds, Mauigoa has all the makings of a top-five pick.
However, ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently reported that his sources say Mauigoa has a herniated disc. The report is a little vague, and it goes on to say “Tt’s not a significant issue” and that it’s “asymptomatic.”
Hmmm.
I watched almost every Miami game last season and there was not a soul that could handle Mauigoa on the right side of the line. If multiple NFL teams are going to pass on a foundational offensive line piece because he might need surgery one day, I guess I’ll have to live with myself.
PICK: Francis Mauigoa Under 8.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
PICK: Francis Mauigoa Top 5 (+310 at FanDuel)
Jeremiyah Love Over 4.5
Love is a polarizing prospect to place.
Multiple pundits believe the Notre Dame running back is the best prospect in the draft, but most franchises have softened on taking one sky-high.
Sure, Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018, but all-world guys like Bijan Robinson went No. 8 in 2023 and Ashton Jeanty went No. 6 last year. Robinson and Jeanty were both “elite” prospects, but didn’t go in the top five.
BetMGM and FanDuel are dealing Love’s O/U at 4.5 with DraftKings and Circa at 5.5. I shot a text to Circa Sports operations manager Jeff Benson, who was kind enough to respond while enjoying a Hawaiian vacation.
“Not much love for Love,” Benson said between licks of Lappert’s ice cream.
There’s always a chance someone reaches for Love at No. 3 or 4, but Over 4.5 at +150 seems like pretty good math. If he goes No. 5, we win. Please get the best number.
PICK: Jeremiyah Love Over 4.5 (+150 at BetMGM)
Carnell Tate Under 7.5
Tate is the best receiver in the draft.
The Chicago native has all the tools front offices covet and NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah recently said the New York Giants could be suitors at No. 5.
Hey now.
I don’t personally think the first pick of the John Harbaugh régime is a wide receiver, although I would happily accept. After the Giants, the Browns and Commanders need playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.
If it comes down to “best available,” Tate should go in the top seven.
PICK: Carnell Tate Under 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
