If Fernando Mendoza were not the No. 1 overall pick, there would be no rush to get him onto the field. In that alternate scenario, the Las Vegas Raiders could slot veteran Kirk Cousins into the QB1 spot and no one would give it a second thought. There would be no pressure. No stress. No reason to push the young quarterback, especially not when the team’s offensive line (while rebuilt) was as bad as it was last year.
Can the Raiders pretend Mendoza was not the No. 1 overall pick?
Can they avoid the history of what teams have done with their rookie QB after taking him No. 1 overall?
Of the 16 quarterbacks drafted at No. 1 overall in the past 20 years, every single one started in his rookie season, per FOX Sports Research. And of those 16 QBs, 12 of them started in Week 1. All of the past six first-overall QBs have started in Week 1. So you take my point — hopefully. The Raiders would have to fight what is historically inevitable.
It’s no mystery that the Raiders want to keep Mendoza off the field at the start of his NFL career.
Not long ago, part-owner Tom Brady called it a “tragedy” that teams are “forcing these rookies to play early.” At the NFL Combine, new Raiders coach Klint Kubiak said, “Ideally, you don’t want a rookie to start from Day 1.”
That’s why Cousins, a legit bridge quarterback, arrived via free agency before the draft. He would be a worthy starter. But even he seems to know that he might not be the best quarterback on the team over the next 10 months. And at that point, Cousins wants the best QB to play, even if that’s Mendoza.
“I honestly don’t want to start unless I’m the best option, and I told Klint that,” Cousins told reporters at his introductory press conference. “The best player should play. As long as that’s the case, I have no qualms about however it plays out.”
For those who don’t want Mendoza rushed onto the field, there’s good(-ish) news: He isn’t even close to ready.
At his first rookie minicamp practice last week, Mendoza took more under-center snaps than he did in his entire season at Indiana. And perhaps that’s why he had a startling realization.
“Wow, I have a lot to work on,” he remembered thinking during his first practice. “Wow, the NFL players, everybody here in rookie camp — these are all really, really good players.”
Talking to the media at rookie minicamp, Fernando Mendoza remarked about the quality of athletes at the NFL level. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
Many of those players won’t even make the 53-man roster. So that means that when OTAs, minicamp and training camp get underway, Mendoza is due for another surprise regarding the quality of his teammates. And then he’ll see two more surprises during the preseason and regular season. If all goes well, he’ll see how the game only gets faster in the postseason and the Super Bowl.
That’s me getting ahead of myself. I won’t be the only one. But at least I know I’m getting ahead of myself. Some others won’t think twice about putting pressure on a guy the Raiders picked with the first selection in a draft of 257 selections. People will want Mendoza to play.
People always want the No. 1 overall pick to play.
Let’s juxtapose those expectations with what is actually happening.
The No. 1 overall pick is learning how to take snaps under center. You’d think, of course, that’s built into being a quarterback. A kid learns that when he’s in middle school and it sticks with him. But Mendoza was a shotgun QB for the Hoosiers. And while he was touted as a quick-thinking draft prospect, he’ll have to figure out how to translate his superpower — his processing speed — into Kubiak’s dropback offense.
“Instead of being back there in shotgun, we have to get back to make sure you best serve your offensive linemen, still be on time, still decipher the defense,” Mendoza told reporters at minicamp. “And with that, actually having an emphasis on those first two steps, on securing the snap and getting out of there, and be powerful with having quick feet.”
The basics.
He’s not behind or ahead of schedule. That is how rookie minicamp works. He’s getting comfortable handing off the football, checking down the football and throwing into one-on-one drills. He is not yet operating the entire scheme, let alone 11-on-11, full-speed, fully-padded reps.
Mendoza practices handoffs during the team’s rookie minicamp at Raiders Headquarters in Henderson, Nevada. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
It’s a process and, hopefully, a progression that Mendoza will embrace wholeheartedly. By all accounts, he is the type of player who wants nothing more than to live the cliché of getting better every day.
But that doesn’t mean that he won’t and can’t regress. In fact, I’ll assure you: He will.
The danger of inserting a player like Mendoza into the lineup too early isn’t just that he’ll regress. It’s that early playtime might instill those bad habits. By nature of the draft order, the No. 1 overall pick goes to the NFL’s worst team. Contrast that to Mendoza coming from college football’s best team. It’s going to be different.
When coach Ben Johnson arrived in Chicago last year, he got to work with Bears QB Caleb Williams. But it seemed as if Johnson had to break through some of the bad habits Williams learned in his rookie season (before Johnson arrived). That’s the risk of putting a QB in too early. It might create a new laundry list of issues to address in the ensuing offseason.
Ben Johnson (right) was hard on Bears QB Caleb Williams during their first OTAs together last June. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The Green Bay Packers have a strong legacy of letting their quarterbacks sit and develop. And perhaps not coincidentally, they have also enjoyed a level of sustained success that’s basically beyond comparison. Green Bay sat Aaron Rodgers behind Brett Favre before sitting Jordan Love behind Rodgers. And that has covered their QB spot going back to 1992.
And, of course, the Kansas City Chiefs famously sat Patrick Mahomes behind Alex Smith for a year. And that was despite — as the myth now goes — Mahomes playing better than Smith at practice for parts of Mahomes’ rookie season.
Those were organizations that had success despite drafting a QB in Round 1. But none of those teams took its QB at No. 1 overall.
One of the best imaginable outcomes for Mendoza would be that he could turn into Joe Burrow or Matt Ryan. In the case of Burrow, drafted No. 1 overall by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2020, he started in Week 1 and played well. But he took too many hits, including the one that prematurely ended his season in Week 11 with an ACL and MCL tear. As for Ryan, he was solid as a rookie in 2008, with 3,440 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He won Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Atlanta Falcons to an 11-5 record. Ryan, however, went third overall — and, in turn, had a better supporting cast.
This is to say that the final decision should probably come down to more than Mendoza. Yes, he’ll have to be ready. But there’s more to it than that. Even if Mendoza is ready for the NFL, the Raiders might not be ready for him.
