Winning the Indianapolis 500 often takes the right mix of aggressiveness and patience. For those who keep trying to win the race, they learn with every run.
So when someone asks who has the best chance to become a first-time winner, the first thought goes to those with experience.
That had a big influence on this list of the 10 drivers most likely to win their first Indy 500 this weekend. There are only nine winners in the race and 24 drivers are looking for their first win.
Long shots (in alphabetical order): Jacob Abel, Marcus Armstrong, Caio Collet, Louis Foster, Romain Grosjean, Jack Harvey, Dennis Hauger, Katherine Legge, Christian Rasmussen, Sting Ray Robb, Mick Schumacher, Nolan Siegel, Kyffin Simpson and Rinus VeeKay
Here are the 10 drivers that I believe have a chance to get their first Indy 500 win, along with their odds.
10. Graham Rahal
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing No. 15 Honda
80/1 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Rahal has just three top 10s in 18 starts in this race and has led only eight laps in his last seven starts. But if things fall into his hands, he won’t necessarily fumble it.
9. Ed Carpenter
ECR No. 33 Chevrolet
40/1 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
This will be Carpenter’s 23rd start. He led 65 laps in 2018 when he won the pole for the third time in this race. He hasn’t finished better than 15th since 2021. But he knows how to handle the car well at max speed and shouldn’t let the pressure get to him.
8. Christian Lundgaard
Arrow McLaren No. 7 Chevrolet
40/1 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
In one race with Arrow McLaren, Lundgaard started eighth and finished seventh. He has strong support and resources at Arrow McLaren and his nerves of steel will help if he finds himself near the front at the end.
7. Conor Daly
Dreyer & Reinbold Racing No. 23 Chevrolet
15/2 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Daly has led laps in four of the last five Indy 500s with a best finish of sixth in 2022. The fact he hasn’t raced at all this year makes one wonder if he can go 200 laps without an error. He certainly could make it exciting.
6. Kyle Kirkwood
Andretti Global No. 27 Honda
30/1 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Kirkwood has one top-15 finish (a seventh in 2024) in his four career Indy 500 starts. He hasn’t been great at Indy but he does have six career victories and clearly knows how to win.
5. Felix Rosenqvist
Meyer Shank Racing No. 60 Honda
12/1 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Rosenqvist has had incredible qualifying speed at Indy but that hasn’t translated into being in the mix deep into the race. He’s only been running at the finish once in the last three years. If he is near the front, he has a shot.
4. Santino Ferrucci
A.J. Foyt Racing No. 14 Chevrolet
11/1 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
The fact that Ferrucci has finished top 10 in all his Indy 500s shows he’s someone who can’t be counted out. And the fact that he’s been known to make a daring move can’t be overstated because daring moves can win the 500.
3. David Malukas
Team Penske No. 12 Chevrolet
8/1 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
He’s got the speed and he’s got the car. But he only has three Indy 500s worth of experience. And he’s never won an INDYCAR race. A first win at the 500 wouldn’t be unprecedented.
2. Scott McLaughlin
Team Penske No. 3 Chevrolet
10/1 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
McLaughlin has the experience of being on the pole at Indianapolis. He has the experience of leading 66 laps in 2024. He has won races in INDYCAR. He drives for Penske. What’s not to like?
1. Pato O’Ward
Arrow McLaren No. 5 Chevrolet
6/1 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Of all the drivers in the field who have come close and haven’t won it, O’Ward would be the one that most would point to as having the most heartbreak at Indy. He’s been passed in the final laps a couple of times and watched a potential victory slip away. If he wins, it would be no surprise. And it would be a heck of a celebration.
