Philly fans and Bills Mafia — life comes at you fast.
We’re barreling toward Week 6 and there are no more undefeated squads in the NFL, after both Buffalo and Philadelphia went down in Week 5.
No sweat, though, because there’s so much football left to play. And the games that I’m wagering are two of the best on this weekend’s slate.
Let’s dive into it.
There’s a monster NFC clash this weekend in Tampa Bay.
The 49ers (4-1) travel across the country to face the Bucs (4-1), and both teams are coming off entertaining 3-point wins on the road. The 49ers — despite being riddled with injuries on offense — won Thursday night over the Rams as huge underdogs. Mac Jones filled in again for quarterback Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense looked good.
Then you have the Bucs, who won a back-and-forth game in Seattle by scoring 10 points in the final three minutes. They have won all four of their games by a field goal or less, including the last two on the final kick.
The last three Tampa Bay contests have gone well past the Over, with final scores of 29-27, 31-25 and 38-35. The Bucs offense is a blast to watch. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 1,283 yards, 10 touchdowns and only one interception. He’s top 10 in most advanced stats for his position, and every single week, he’s keeping his team in the game. On top of that, the offensive line is getting healthy and that has been a welcome boost, even though the offense still has injuries to important players.
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Mike Evans is out. So is running back Bucky Irving. But rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka has emerged as their top weapon. He’s caught 25 passes for 445 yards and five touchdowns.
The Bucs will play a 49ers defense that is struggling to rush the passer without superstar pass rusher Nick Bosa. San Francisco only has six sacks (Bosa has two of them) this season, with a pressure rate of only 11%. If you’re not going to pressure the quarterback, you’re going to allow tons of points. The Rams scored only 20 points against the 49ers, but that included a Kyren Williams fumble at the 1-yard line.
No fumble and the Rams are at 27 points.
I like the Bucs to score in this game. It’s also an early kickoff for the 49ers and much warmer than usual for them.
PICK: Buccaneers Team Total Over 25.5 points scored
The Lions are better than the Chiefs and I don’t understand why Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite.
Normally, you’d want to wager against the idea that I (not a bookmaker) think the line is wrong, but I’m going with my conviction here.
Detroit has won four games in a row after dropping the first game of the season to the Packers. The Lions’ four-game win streak is against teams with a combined six wins, but they’ve won those games easily.
The Detroit offensive creativity is still there even without Ben Johnson. Jared Goff has been good. The offensive line has been able to withstand some injuries and retirements and still play good ball. On defense, Detroit is fourth in EPA and outstanding at stopping the run this season. Now again, this could be a tad about the quarterbacks the Lions have played, but I think it’s fair to say that the defense is much improved this season with healthy players.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, are 2-3 after losing on Monday night to the Jaguars. They are now 0-3 in one-score games after going 11-0 last season. The issue remains the same for the Chiefs. More often, teams lose games than win them. For several seasons in a row, the Chiefs didn’t stumble because they didn’t beat themselves.
Take their game against the Jags, for example. There was that Patrick Mahomes pick-six on an awesome scheme by the Jags defense. But add in 12 Chiefs penalties, plus some careless plays and lack of effort on defense, and the Chiefs lose.
One thing Kansas City used to do well was play team ball. If the offense was bad, the defense picked it up. Or vice versa. This season, that hasn’t been the case. The offense was excellent against the Jaguars, but the defense was poor.
Simply put, in my opinion, the Chiefs are not a good football team right now.
The Lions, however, are playing good football on both sides of the ball. Their offense is rolling, and I don’t see the Chiefs pass rush being able to slow them down. The Chiefs offense probably continues to improve, but it it going to avoid the same mistakes that have plagued it recently?
I don’t trust the Chiefs in this spot.
PICK: Lions (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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