Now that the NFL season has concluded, college basketball’s got next. And if this season has been any indication of what we are in for in the Big Dance, it’s going to be wild.
While Alabama, Houston and Purdue have played musical chairs in the top spots in the rankings, all three of them have shown that they can be exposed on any given day. The point? There’s no dominant team in college basketball this season. The gap between the great teams and the middle? It’s decreased in size.
What does that mean from a betting perspective? There might be value in throwing a few bucks on a couple of non-chalky teams in the futures market.
With just over three weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, let’s dive into four teams I like to cut down the nets in Houston this April.
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Frontrunner pick: UCLA +1200 at FOX Bet
The Bruins have all the ingredients to make a title run in March. First and foremost, the program has combined for seven NCAA Tournament wins over the last two seasons. More importantly, coach Mick Cronin has the experience factor to his benefit, with All-American wing Jaime Jaquez Jr. and point guard Tyger Campbell leading the way.
With 122 assists to just 47 turnovers, Campbell is second in the Pac-12 in assist-to-turnover ratio, and the Bruins own a +6.20 turnover margin, which ranks second in the country. That defense, ranked second in the country according to KenPom, will travel in the tournament.
Beyond Jaquez and Campbell, UCLA has seen Jaylen Clark take a major leap this season, as he’s averaged 13.2 points per game and leads the conference with 2.7 steals per game. With David Singleton also complimenting things and dynamic freshmen Adem Bona and Amari Bailey, UCLA has five players averaging in double-figures in a top-25 offense in America.
Bailey returning from a foot injury is massive for UCLA in the home stretch. Ultimately, the reason why you should love this team is that Jaquez is a throwback player from California who just wins. With him, the Bruins can beat anybody.
Secondary selection: Creighton +2500 at FOX Bet
The Bluejays have played as well as anyone in college basketball over the course of the last month. Winners of eight of their last nine games, coach Greg McDermott has a team that’s incredibly balanced and one that sits at the fewest fouls per game in the country, according to T-Rank.
Defending without fouling really answers the question of depth for this squad, which has a high-level sophomore duo in the backcourt between Ryan Nembhard (11.8 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Trey Alexander (15.2 PPG over last 10 games).
With Baylor Scheierman (13.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG) on the wing, Creighton’s playmaking on the perimeter is at an elite level. They have a great mix in the frontcourt, too, with a stretch man in Arthur Kaluma, who adds a ton of versatility and is one of the toughest matchups in the Big East for opposing defenses.
To round things out, 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner leads the conference with 52 blocks on the season, averaging 15 points per game and shooting 71% from the floor.
Best value: Miami +5000 at FOX Bet
Their guard play is as strong as any team in college basketball. With Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack, the Hurricanes have a tremendous duo that can just take over a game. Pack, a Kansas State transfer, has fit into coach Jim Larranaga’s system perfectly. He’s totaled 20 or more points in three of the last four games for the Canes. Wong is the steady four-year senior who was an integral part of last year’s Elite Eight run as well.
On top of the great guard play, Miami has a double-double machine in Norchad Omier to man the post (13.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 60% FG). The man not getting enough attention is 6-foot-7 wing Jordan Miller, who has scored in double-figures in 20 straight games for Miami and totaled 24 points and 11 rebounds in Monday’s commanding 80-72 win at North Carolina.
The Hurricanes are underappreciated nationally for what they’ve done the last two seasons, but they are the most dangerous team in the ACC come tournament time with a top-10 offense in college basketball.
Not as confident, but worth a sprinkle:
Arkansas +6000 at FOX Bet: Eric Musselman has been to back-to-back Elite Eights, and with top-tier freshman Nick Smith back in the fold, he adds some burst to a group that defends extremely well. It would not surprise me to see the Razorbacks find some magic and make a run as a lower seed this year.
TCU +3500 at FOX Bet: Don’t let the Horned Frogs’ 6-7 record in Big 12 play fool you. When Mike Miles Jr. is back and healthy, he can charge their offense. Defense and rebounding by committee are a given for Jamie Dixon’s group.
Illinois +6000 at FOX Bet: Maybe, just maybe, Brad Underwood’s team can find its most consistent run in March. The talent is there with Terrence Shannon Jr. to lead the backcourt and the progression of versatile big man Coleman Hawkins. Baylor transfer Matthew Mayer is a winner as well and has been to the places the Illini want to go, having won a national title two years ago.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter at @John_Fanta.
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