What would it take to extend Colts stars Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.?

Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

In an offseason when the pursuit of a young quarterback and new coach Shane Steichen’s vision for the offense are drawing the biggest headlines for the Colts, not too far down the priority list should be paying their two best offensive skill players.

Star running back Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., both 2020 second-round picks, are eligible for contract extensions after completing their third year in the NFL.

Taylor, the NFL’s rushing triple crown winner in 2021, had a rough 2022 campaign, between an ankle injury that held him to 11 games and the struggles of an offensive line that couldn’t consistently create rushing lanes for him. But he still had a team-high 861 rushing yards on 192 carries.

Much like Taylor’s production was impacted by a porous offensive line, Pittman’s numbers took a dip in part due to bad quarterback play (which was also impacted by the pass-protection woes of the offensive line). He caught 99 passes for 925 yards and four touchdowns in 2022.

What can we expect in potential new deals for Taylor and Pittman?

Taylor deserving of top-market RB deal

When 100 percent healthy, Taylor is a top-five running back in the NFL. He had the league’s best running back season in 2021: 332 carries for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns en route to unanimous AP All-Pro honors and a Pro Bowl nod. He’s the master of subtle jump cuts, and has elite burst when he hits the second level of a defense.

LeSean McCoy’s top RBs list

Before last season, LeSean McCoy shared his top five running backs in the league, highlighting Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor.

Why paying Taylor could be a challenge for the Colts: He’s coming off an injury-shortened season at an already devalued, short shelf-life position — on top of having plenty of wear and tear on his body. Beyond his NFL résumé through three seasons (756 carries, 3,841 rushing yards, 33 touchdowns), Taylor had three 1,900-yard rushing seasons at Wisconsin, plus a 2,800-yard season in high school. How much tread is left on his tires? That could be a talking point at the negotiating table.

Colts general manager Chris Ballard did say, though, that a “special playmaker” deserves top dollar even if he’s a running back, without going to specifics about a potential deal for Taylor.

He’s the engine of Indianapolis’ offense, the soon-to-be insurance blanket of the incoming quarterback. With a competent offensive line, Taylor is expected to regain his All-Pro form. He told NFL Network he underwent ankle surgery in January.

So what could a new contract look like for Taylor, who’s scheduled to earn $4.304 million in base salary next season?

Here are some of the extensions signed by star running backs in the past few seasons (Numbers via SpoTrac):

Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys): six years, $90 million total value, $28.05 million guaranteed at signing, 50.05 million in total guarantees (signed September 2019)
Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers): four years, $64 million total value, $30.06 million guaranteed at signing, $38.16 million in total guarantees (April 2020)
Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans): four years, $50 million in total value, $25.5 million guaranteed at signing, $25.5 million in total guarantees (July 2020)
Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals): four years, $48 million in total value, $10 million guaranteed at signing, $10 million in total guarantees (September 2020)
Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints): five years, $75 million, $22.8 million guaranteed at signing; $33.8 million in total guarantees (September 2020)
Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings): five years, $63 million in total value, $16.3 million guaranteed at signing, $28.1 million in total guarantees (September 2020)
Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers): four years, $48 million in total value, $13 million guaranteed at signing, $14 million in total guarantees (March 2021)
Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns): three years, $36.6 million in total value, $17.1 million guaranteed at signing, $20 million in total guarantees (August 2021)

Given that four-year deals have been common for star running backs, that could be a starting point for Taylor’s camp. Taylor will also likely seek at least $16 million per year in average annual salary, surpassing Elliott’s $15 million. McCaffrey tops running backs in AAV — $16.015 million — but the San Francisco 49ers star represents a unique case because of his rare receiving ability for the position.

Even with missing six games last season, Elliot and McCaffrey’s contracts are possibly the best data points for Taylor, because they’re the only two of the eight RBs listed above who earned at least one AP first-team All-Pro nod before their extension.

Taylor’s camp could also wait to see what new deals look like for star running backs Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders and Saquon Barkley — all of whom are unrestricted free agents this offseason — before moving on a contract.

Will Colts pay Pittman like a WR1?

Pittman has been the Colts’ top receiver the past two seasons and was a borderline 1,000-yard receiver in Indianapolis’ dysfunctional passing game in 2022.

Why paying him could be a challenge: a possible gap in where Pittman’s agent and the Colts see his standing. In his end-of-season presser, Ballard called Pittman a “really good freaking player” but stopped short of saying he is a true WR1.

“What’s a one? What’s a real one?” Ballard said. “A guy that every time he touches the ball, you’re scared to death that he’s going to go score. There are very few of those.”

Pittman has been Indianapolis’ No. 1 option, though. Despite the Colts’ quarterback challenges, he is still eighth in the NFL in targets (262), fifth in receptions (181), 16th in receiving yards (1,930), 16th in yards after the catch (671) and 11th in receiving first downs (101) over the past two seasons, according to TruMedia.

Pittman isn’t on the same level as receivers Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and A.J. Brown, all of whom received mega extensions last spring. But he should still be able to command No. 1 receiver money.

Here are some recent extensions that could serve as potential benchmarks for Pittman (all numbers via SpoTrac):

DJ Moore (Carolina Panthers): three years, $61.8 million in total value, $41.6 million guaranteed at signing, $41.6 million in total guarantees (signed in March 2022)
Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars): four years, $72 million in total value, $37 million guaranteed at signing, $37 million in total guarantees (March 2022)
Mike Williams (Los Angeles Chargers): three years, $60 million in total contract value, $40 million guaranteed at signing, $50 million in total guarantees (March 2022)
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): three years, $60 million in total value, $40 million guaranteed at signing, $40 million in total guarantees (March 2022)
Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks): four years, $69 million in total value, $37 million guaranteed at signing, $37 million in total guarantees (April 2021)

It’s reasonable to expect Pittman to crack the top 10 in average annual salary in a new deal at $21-22 million, bumping Moore ($20.628 million/year) to 11th. And a three-year deal makes sense — for the 25-year-old wideout to receive another big contract before turning 30 and to capitalize on the expected explosion of the salary cap.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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