How to bet on Team USA at 2023 World Baseball Classic

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

You may be a casual baseball fan who’s patriotic enough to want anything labeled Team USA to win the World Baseball Classic.

You may be an enthusiast who’s already planned your life around the ballclub’s first exhibition on Wednesday. Or you may be a diehard who will be in Phoenix for when the games begin to count for the Stars and Stripes on March 11, and then in Miami for the knockout rounds March 17-21.

RELATED: Bookmaker’s take on WBC

But here’s a bigger question: is it worth betting on Team USA to win the WBC?

Currently, Team USA is +275 to win on FOX Bet. These are the second-shortest odds behind the Dominican Republican (+200 on FOX Bet).

Let’s go over the three pros and three cons of betting on Team USA:

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Pros

The Stars and Stripes may have the strongest batting lineups in the tournament. Let’s look at one set of projections for the 2023 MLB season: ZiPS from the great Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. Trea Turner, Nolan Arenado, Will Smith, Mookie Betts and Mike Trout are all projected to finish in the top 20 in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement. No other ballclub has more than three of such players.
Speaking of Trout, no slugger has gotten off to better starts in recent memory. If you go by the past five full seasons and only analyze March/April, Trout leads the way with a .322 expected batting average and a .454 expected weighted on-base average (minimum 500 plate appearances). With the WBC happening in March, Trout may be as prepared as anyone for competitive games. Having several seasons of MLB experience should help with that readiness, too.
Every athlete on Team USA’s roster plays in the Major Leagues. They are one of only two ballclubs with that distinction (Dominican Republic).

Cons

As I mentioned when FOX Bet originally posted WBC odds, because the winning ballclub only plays seven games in the span of two weeks, one or two pitchers can practically carry a team to a title. It’s what Marcus Stroman did when the U.S. won its lone WBC championship in 2017. This year, the pitchers who I would have tagged as MVP candidates are not playing. Stroman is pitching for Puerto Rico for this tournament, Clayton Kershaw announced last month he’s no longer available and Nester Cortes has a hamstring injury. The best pitchers seem to be elsewhere. As I mentioned in my Best Bets, Team Japan has the best rotation, led by Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish. Also, outside of Ohtani, the highest-ranked projected FanGraphs WAR for pitchers this season is with Team Dominican Republic: Sandy Alcántara (3.7). To find an American pitcher on this list, you must go down to 52nd to see the first listed: Lance Lynn.
While Team USA will have home-field advantage throughout the tournament, this fact may be overrated. Every season in MLB, the home team wins somewhere between 52-54% of their games. It’s not nothing but not massive, either. Home teams also tend to score approximately 6.5% more runs than their opponents; however, in potentially as big as a seven-game sample, it’s possible we do not see that extra run. Even if we can see a significant home-field advantage, it would not erase any gaps in pitching talent.
The path in the tournament matters. There is a clear top tier in this field: the Dominican Republic, the U.S. and Japan. Perhaps the biggest reason why the Dominicans are the betting favorites is because they have an easier path to the championship, assuming chalk. Assuming no major upsets, the Stars and Stripes must play Japan in the Semifinals, then the Dominicans in the Finals. The DR avoids playing the rest of the top tier, only likely facing one of them.

Ultimately, we bet for value. +275 is simply not enough when pitching is a significant concern, home-field advantage may not matter and the U.S. could trip up in the single-elimination portion of the tournament against Japan or the Dominican Republic. As much as we may want Team USA to repeat as WBC champions, I would not be on them to win.

However, the U.S. is -360 to win Pool C, and this bet is one I do like. Because of the low payout, I would avoid placing too many units here; however, the only real contender in this group of five is Mexico, headlined by a lethal one-two pitching punch in Julio Urías and Patrick Sandoval. Both men are projected to finish in the top 40 in FanGraphs WAR according to ZiPS. I would also bet on Mexico to qualify from the pool, currently at -300.

To review, I would avoid betting on Team USA to win the WBC at +275, I would bet on them to win Pool C at -360 and, for a bonus, bet on Mexico to qualify from Pool C at -300.

Are there any bets you want to make on the WBC or the upcoming MLB season? If so, get your wagers in at FOX Bet!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

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