Since Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen became NFL starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs and Bills have met nine times on the football field.
Meeting No. 10 is this Sunday in Orchard Park.
Kansas City has five victories to Buffalo’s four, but four of the Chiefs’ five triumphs came in the postseason. So the Bills are 4-1 heads up in the regular season.
“The Chiefs win when it matters,” one professional bettor told me from Las Vegas. “Mahomes and Andy Reid push the right buttons in the playoffs. They find a way.”
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Truth is, Kansas City has become Buffalo’s measuring stick — the bar the Bills can’t quite clear en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Every Bills fan remembers those 13 seconds like it was yesterday. And no matter how loud the raucous western New York crowd gets, Mahomes’ calm always seems to be louder.
Respected money gravitated toward the Chiefs, who opened as 1-point favorites Sunday night at the Westgate SuperBook. Most sportsbooks are now sitting Kansas City -2, with DraftKings dealing -2.5 on the high side.
It’s unlikely we sniff -3.
“I don’t even like Buffalo and I would take 3,” the bettor added. “You have my interest at +3.”
Legendary Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White has made NFL power ratings for four decades, and he believes the wrong team is favored. His numbers have Kansas City one point better on a neutral field, and he gives Buffalo a full three points for home-field advantage.
“Buffalo -2 is my true line,” White said.
There’s a difference, though, between making lines and booking bets, and White understands the surging perception around Kansas City. The Chiefs have won four of their last five games, averaging 30.8 points per game over that stretch.
If Mahomes didn’t hurl an uncharacteristic 99-yard pick six in Jacksonville, odds are good we’d be discussing Kansas City being on a five-game winning streak.
That’s life.
Turnovers have been unkinder to the Bills as of late. Allen threw two interceptions in the loss at Atlanta and one in the home defeat to New England to compound his lost fumble.
If Buffalo gives Mahomes & Co. short fields, forget about it.
I do a weekly spot on Buffalo sports radio powerhouse WGR 550, and you can sense the dread from hosts and callers this week. They know the Chiefs are cooking with gas right now and there’s a natural ick about facing No. 15.
The ick will morph to elation if the Bills pull the upset.
Bookmakers around Vegas expect tremendous two-way betting action up to kickoff on Sunday’s afternoon slate. There’s always a public appetite to bet Kansas City in this role and Buffalo will attract waves of dollars as a home underdog. As of now, the worst scenario for the house would be the Chiefs winning by one.
For instance, 24-23 KC would be no bueno.
“NFL games don’t land one,” SuperBook vice president of race and sports John Murray joked from his office. “But please, do not land one.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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