Maybe it’s the trade deadline bringing a sense of closure. Maybe it’s the marker of getting over the season’s half-way point. But it seems like teams are making big decisions about their quarterbacks’ futures. Yes, I’m thinking about Miami and Arizona.
This week might end up serving as a turning point for Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa — where we look back and say: That was the beginning of the end. We’ll talk about all that and more in this week’s QB Stock Market.
In these QB rankings, I’m focused on monitoring the fluctuations of a QB’s performance throughout the season. No one — not even Drake Maye — is safe at the top. No one — not even Dillon Gabriel — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds most important: What have you done for your team lately?
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That was yet another big win for the Bills against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. It’s one worth celebrating. As always, there’s the looming question: OK, but can Buffalo finally do it in the postseason? You know … when it matters?
Allen is 5-1 against Mahomes in the regular season. But Mahomes is 4-0 against Allen in the postseason. So the playoff question is a fair one. But one to save for a later date.
In the meantime, this was an efficient game from Allen in a season where he hasn’t met the superhuman standards that he set for himself in years past, particularly in 2024, his MVP campaign. And while receivers Keon Coleman and Joshua Palmer have yet to deliver on what GM Brandon Beane must have hoped for them, tight end Dalton Kincaid had himself a great game — amid a great season. And he did it amid the backdrop of Buffalo’s last final play last year, when he dropped what would’ve been a fourth-down conversion in the final moments of a loss to Kansas City.
Kincaid has been a difference-maker, quietly leading the Bills in receiving yards after putting up 101 yards and a touchdown against KC. If you want to see the positive, that’s where you’ll look: the potential emergence of a top-tier pass catcher for Allen. (And if you want a defensive positive, you can see what the Bills got by not paying for an elite WR1 — it was the pass rush that stopped Mahomes.)
But there’s one place that worried me about Allen’s performance, and it was the way Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo fooled the Bills QB in the fourth quarter around the 10-minute mark. These are the types of plays where Allen seems to fail pre-snap. And it’s not a coincidence that it’s late in this game when Spags breaks out his best blitzes.
Allen had a running back to set up protection for the blitzer, but instead sent James Cook into the flat for a route, leaving the rusher a free lane. It’s a tiny error. But it’s one that helped the Chiefs keep things close.
As both teams know all too well, the margin for error will be even smaller if the Chiefs and Bills play in January.
I have four quick takeaways from Mahomes’ performance against the Bills:
- The first is fundamentally simple: The QB was bad and the defense was good. The Bills sniffed out what the Chiefs were planning to do, and they generated 20 pressures (?!?!) on 52.6% of his dropbacks. On the back end, the defensive backs played really good, smart coverage. Shoutout to Bills safety Cole Bishop.
- Even with Mahomes’ numbers looking bad, it’s remarkable that he nearly won this game — that Allen looked genuinely stressed on the sideline when Mahomes got the ball after a missed field goal. That’s respect. But that’s also the fear that Mahomes has put into Allen through the years.
- It’s remarkable that the Chiefs can take a loss like this and no one seems to really care. And that’s because their postseason track record (particularly against the Bills) speaks for itself. The Chiefs just make sure these regular-season defeats don’t end up mattering when the season is over, even if it costs them home-field advantage. Because KC always ends up in the Super Bowl.
- And finally, Mahomes converted a fourth-and-17 on what was a really cool and really improbable play. It looked like a fake-rollout play (that fooled Joey Bosa) and allowed Mahomes to throw against the flow of the defense for a huge pickup. How does Andy Reid think of this stuff? It’s just incredible.
There are pocket passers who are fun to watch. (Baker Mayfield is one of them.)
There are pocket passers whose playmakers are fun to watch. (Daniel Jones is one of them.)
I find Sam Darnold fun to watch.
The Seahawks offense has Darnold looking as comfortable as he did with the Vikings, which might now be a widely held fact (especially after Sunday night’s showing) but also would’ve been a highly contested concept prior to the season. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has built something that works really well for Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks were so impressive that they upended the idea that you need to play 60 minutes in the NFL. Their game against the Commanders was over in the first half.
This isn’t to say Darnold is fully reformed. He makes boneheaded mistakes. He tries to do too much. But those jagged elements are part of what makes him entertaining — and dangerous. In Seattle, he seems to have found the right balance.
That said, I did laugh at this second-half interception, if only because it felt similar to a play he made in the first half (which was a highlight for him). It was classic Darnold, feeling himself a little bit too much.
The Commanders did what they could to fight the sophomore slump. They added a checkdown, YAC demon in Deebo Samuel — who briefly looked like more than that. They added a left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. They re-signed star receiver Terry McLaurin to keep him happy.
Those well-intentioned plans fell apart when the Commanders hit the field.
I won’t call them Paper Lions, but …
The team has dealt with significant injuries to McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Deatrich Wise and Marshon Lattimore, among others. But the biggest question is about Daniels’ long list of injuries this year. There were already questions about his durability coming into the NFL. At this point, it’s fair to wonder if he’s injury-prone — and how much those injuries will interfere with his career in the long term. As smart and as fast and as prepared as he is, he’s a slender guy at 210 pounds and 6-foot-3. Compare that to Drake Maye: 6-foot-4, 225 pounds. They appear equal in talent and playmaking ability. But that’s only when Daniels is healthy.
The Commanders QB needs to start taking better care of himself on the field. (And it wouldn’t hurt for the organization to take better care of him, too.)
Will someone give Jones another shot at QB1?
Will anyone be willing to trade for him? He’s on his first year of a two-year deal, so there’s another question: How much would the next team have to adjust his contract?
But this year’s “Geno Smith Award” is likely to go to Jones. The 49ers QB2 could be the next high-pick-bust-turned-reclamation-project, like Smith (then Mayfield, then Darnold, then Jones). Depending on the coaching situations, there are a few candidates who might have interest in Jones: the Vikings, the Saints, the Dolphins, the Browns, the Cardinals.
I’ll admit, my gut on Jones is that he looks like a backup-caliber quarterback. But he’s playing well right now. And it’s definitely trendy (and salary-cap convenient) to help guys like Jones find their way for the right price. If you’d have asked me if I believed in Jones (or Darnold or Mayfield or Smith) before their comebacks, I would’ve said: no.
Maybe it could happen for Jones next year. If not 2026, then in 2027 when he’s slated for free agency.
The drama surrounding Brissett and Kyler Murray appears to be real. And Dallas’ putrid defense helped breathe life into the NFL’s most glaring quarterback controversy.
Brissett did a few nice things Monday night. Most notably, he layered a throw through the teeth of the defense to hit Michael Wilson for a 50-yard touchdown. But what has seemingly made the difference for Brissett (in relief of Murray) has been his one and only interception.
Brissett is steady. Kyler is a roller-coaster.
And it looks like the steady hand is having a positive impact on the offense.
Remember: Murray is on a contract through 2028. He’s making $32.6 million in new money this year and he’s slated to make $42.5 million (in new money) next year, per Spotrac. Cutting him would be costly, even with a post-June 1 designation. Trading him would work nicely, but that’s only if they can find a trade partner.
The bottom line is this: Brissett might not be the future in Arizona, but he’s done enough to create uncertainty around Kyler’s future with the Cardinals.
So … it’s over in Miami.
I’m telling you now — for anyone who doesn’t already know. It’s over.
It has something to do with Tua’s recent performances. But the fat lady sang last week when Miami parted ways with general manager Chris Grier. The Dolphins are going to keep skidding through Week 18. And probably on Black Monday (though maybe earlier), they’ll part ways with coach Mike McDaniel. Sometime after that, they’ll also part ways with Tua. Tyreek Hill will be gone, whether by retirement or trade. Edge Jaelan Phillips is already gone. Edge Bradley Chubb might be on the move at the trade deadline. Even Jaylen Waddle appears to be out there in trade talks.
For the Dolphins, it’s going to be a messy and expensive transition. But that’s the way this is headed. The question is whether Tua can find a home as a QB1 in 2026 — or later. It’s hard to find a natural fit for him to start. What’s more likely is that he heads to Los Angeles or some other Shanahanian offense where he could serve as a backup. Maybe he ends up Carson Wentz. Maybe he takes over for Matthew Stafford. Crazier things have happened.
But it looks like the Dolphins will bench Tua in the coming games. And after that, we might not see him again till next year.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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