“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
How is it that we’re already staring the end of the college football regular season in its face?
After Saturday, we’ve only got two more weeks before conference championship weekend.
Good thing we’re currently on a high note, as we come into Week 12 with four more wins.
Let’s keep going.
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 34-21-2
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This number took a big hit the other day from 6.5, so someone apparently thinks UVA QB Chandler Morris will be back. I’m not sure that it ultimately even matters, as UVA has been begging for losses — even with Morris in the lineup. The world was on UConn last week against Duke and the Huskies and Blue Devils delivered what bettors expected. However, as Pat Narduzzi would tell you, too, that was a non-conference game and Duke still has a great shot of reaching the ACC title game, as it only has one ACC loss. Coming off a poor defensive effort last week and with a chance at playing for an ACC title in their hands, I expect Manny Diaz’s team to take care of business this weekend.
PICK: Duke (-4) to win by more than 4 points
Arizona @ No. 25 Cincinnati
The Bearcats had an off week after getting blown out by Utah, but Arizona is a team I have been impressed by. Zona had BYU beat, but couldn’t finish, and Noah Fifita — who hasn’t thrown a pick in a month — could give the Bearcats a big upset scare.
PICK: Arizona (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
State needs one more win to get bowl-eligible and last week was the first time all year the Bullies haven’t really been competitive. Missouri is a completely different team without QB Beau Pribula and without TE Brett Norfleet, who missed last week with a separated shoulder. Seven feels a bit rich, as State should see this as its best chance to get win No. 6. The last chance for the Bulldogs would be in the Egg Bowl.
PICK: Mississippi State (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE
Last Week: 4-2, +5.2
Season: 20-29, +9.8
Arizona +19
Tulsa +120
Mississippi State +230
BEAR BYTES
No. 9 Notre Dame @ No. 22 Pitt
Notre Dame has won 47 straight games away from home as a double-digit favorite dating back to a 1997 loss at Purdue. The Irish are 7-0 under Marcus Freeman in this role, with all but one game decided by fewer than 15 points.
No. 18 Michigan @ Northwestern
In its last 12 games as a double-digit favorite, Michigan is 3-9 against the spread (ATS). However, the Wolverines have not been upset as double-digit favorites since 2020. That’s good for 39 straight wins. Excluding the 2020 season, Michigan has won 57 straight games as a double-digit favorite, dating back to a 2017 loss to Michigan State.
No. 10 Texas @ No. 5 Georgia
Under Kirby Smart, Georgia is 8-0 against top-10 teams in Athens, covering all but one game. Texas has been an underdog eight times under Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns have pulled just one upset and that was at Alabama in 2023.
No. 11 Oklahoma @ No. 4 Alabama
As a Power 4 head coach, Kalen DeBoer is 17-2 against ranked teams. The two losses came against Michigan in the 2023 CFP Championship Game and at Tennessee last year. DeBoer is 16-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer as a Power 4 head Coach.
No. 16 Georgia Tech @ Boston College
Since 1978, there have been five games between power conference teams in which a team 8-1 or better faced a team 1-9 or worse on the road. Those five teams won those games by a combined score of 191-22 and none of the five home teams scored more than seven points. The last such game was Oklahoma 41, Kansas 3 in 2017.
Florida @ No. 7 Ole Miss
A Florida loss will clinch the Gators’ fourth losing season in the last five years and sixth losing season since 2013 (13 seasons). From 1980 to 2012, the Gators didn’t have a single losing season and had six losing seasons from 1950 to 2012 (63 seasons) before this current stretch.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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