There are a few NFL teams that were supposed to be great this season, but so far, I’m unimpressed.
The two squads that I have in mind this week, in my head, need to have a prove-it performance in Week 11 — but that doesn’t mean I’m wagering on them to accomplish that.
Check out my best bets for NFL Week 11.
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This is a fascinating game in Buffalo between two teams moving in the wrong direction in terms of their season goals.
Tampa Bay lost to New England last weekend and the Bills were upset by the Dolphins. Both teams were a favorite, with Tampa coming off a bye and Buffalo off a win at home against the Chiefs. Both squads need this win against a quality opponent and both need to play better than they did last week.
At this point, it’s difficult to back the Bills when they are a favorite of over three points. They haven’t warranted that number with their play in the last five games. Yes, they beat the Chiefs, but they do that every season. They dominated a weird Panthers team, but they lost to the Patriots, lost to the Falcons and took that loss to the Dolphins.
On top of that, Buffalo scored only 20, 14 and 13 in its three losses.
The Bills have a fantastic offensive line and can run the ball, but they don’t have many receiving weapons. And without Dalton Kincaid, the options for any sort of explosive passing game are not there. The Buffalo offense has to adjust but hasn’t shown the ability to.
Tampa Bay’s defense got owned by the Patriots at the line of scrimmage, which is odd for a Tampa Bay team. I would expect a better effort from that group against Buffalo. I like that matchup for Tampa.
The Buffalo defense has been subpar this season. It is 22nd in DVOA and can’t stop the run. The injuries on defense, especially at defensive tackle, have only made it worse. Teams are running the ball right at the Bills, sans the Chiefs, for some odd reason. They allowed 197 on the ground to the Dolphins and 210 to the Falcons. Their other opponents have put up yardage, but Buffalo has been just as effective, as it is 30th in rushing defense DVOA.
Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has suffered without Bucky Irving and its beaten-up offensive line. It got some of its linemen back last week and against this Bills defense, the Bucs will run the ball. Tampa Bay can use the run game to help set up play action and keep Baker Mayfield comfortable in the pocket.
With all that said, this is just too many points for me. I like Tampa Bay to cover.
PICK: Buccaneers (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points or win outright
The Packers’ last six games have gone like this:
- They lost the Browns and did not cover.
- They tied with the Cowboys and did not cover.
- In Cincinnati’s first game with Joe Flacco at quarterback, the Packers won by nine and did not cover.
- The Packers were trailing most of the game to the Cardinals before winning by four but did not cover.
- The Packers won and covered against the Steelers a few weeks ago.
- Green Bay lost to the Eagles by three and did not cover.
So that’s 1-5 against the spread and Green Bay has not played to standard in five of those games.
Why is it a road favorite of seven points?
The Packers offense scares no one. It can run the ball too much on early downs, and it appears to not trust Jordan Love. Or, it might be that Love isn’t good enough to run the offense as designed.
Either way, the Packers offense is just meh, while the Giants defensive line is one of the best in the game.
The Giants fired head coach Brian Daboll and are starting Jameis Winston with Jaxson Dart out for this game. I’m excited to see the offense with Mike Kafta in charge and Winston running the show. Winston’s highs are high, and his lows are low, so I hope we get the high-highs Winston.
The Giants are also better than their 2-8 record. They blew games against the Broncos and Bears but still covered. I like their chances to cover here.
PICK: Giants (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 or win outright
The tight end of the offense playing against the Dolphins is a wager I’m going to make every single game.
Miami allows tons of yards to opposing TEs. Against the Bills on Sunday, Dalton Kincaid had 37 yards at halftime before he got hurt, but then backup TE Dawson Knox added another 37 yards. Against the Ravens, tight end Isaiah Likely had 60 yards on three catches. Against the Falcons, Kyle Pitts had 59 yards. The week before, Harold Fannin Jr had 36 for the Browns.
You get the idea.
Zach Ertz is second on the Commanders in receptions and, without some of their other receiving options, he continues to be a main target for the Commanders’ QB. He’s had at least four targets in five straight games, and with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, he’s a good option for a quick pass.
PICK: Zach Ertz Over 42.5 receiving yards
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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