The last time the New York Jets and the New England Patriots faced off on a Thursday in November, it was Thanksgiving 2012.
Fans might remember an infamous fumble; Pats backers might remember celebrating after New England won 49-19.
With the Week 11 matchup between these squads on the horizon, the Patriots are favored to win on Thursday in November again — and by a lot.
At BetMGM, Drake Maye and his 8-2 Pats are 13-point favorites as they host the 2-7 Jets. This line, though, has seen major movement after opening at NE -10.5.
Should bettors bite on New England covering the double digits — especially considering the Patriots are on a seven-game winning streak and boast the tenth-best overall offense in the league?
Well, that depends.
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According to BetMGM, favorites of four or more points against the spread (ATS) on Thursday Night Football this year have gone 1-6 in that spot. However, the Patriots have been on a roll ATS this season, with a 7-3 record.
In fact, in their last seven games, they have covered the spread six times.
But for bettors who are into fading the public, it might be helpful to know that 76% of the money at the book has been on the Pats.
From their outright record to their record ATS, much of New England’s success has been because of second-year quarterback Drake Maye.
The QB has passed for 2,555 yards and has 19 touchdowns through the air. Both those stats are good for third-best in the NFL. Currently, he’s one of the favorites to be named MVP.
And Maye has been making plays with his legs, too.
While he only has two rushing TDs this year, he’s racked up 283 yards on the ground. His ability to evade defenders by running has gotten the attention of bettors, as Maye Over 21.5 rushing yards is the most-bet Thursday Night Football prop with 99% on the Over.
Maye is averaging 28 rushing yards per game this season and has eclipsed 21.5 rushing yards five times this season, including 62 yards against the Titans in Week 7.
With all this in mind, how might bettors wager on the Week 11 TNF matchup?
According to FOX Sports betting analyst Patrick Everson, the public is undoubtedly all over the Pats, but New York might get some consideration elsewhere.
“Jets-Patriots is one-way traffic. Some of that surrounds who the Jets are going to play at QB,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel told Everson.
“But the Jets are one of the teams that sharp bettors respect. I expect the sharps to come in on the Jets at +13.”
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