Constantly betting on heavy favorites isn’t a long-term winning strategy. The price you have to pay to scratch out a win often isn’t worth the itch.
Also, upsets happen, you know?
But if you recognize that, and you’re just taking a flier bet on something you anticipate might not turn out well, then go ahead and have your fun.
A Fanatics Sportsbook customer did that over the weekend on a 25-leg parlay.
Yes — 25 legs.
And that person’s bank account is five figures larger today because of it.
More on that profitable parlay, other fun wins and big bets as we recap NFL and college football betting this past weekend.
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Parlay Partay
At some point Friday or early Saturday, a bettor at Fanatics decided to put $600 on every big moneyline favorite possible. The 25-leg parlay crossed into college football, the NFL, NBA, college basketball and even men’s tennis.
There was only one modest favorite among the whole batch: Dolphins -150 moneyline vs. Commanders. Every other pick was a minimum -350 favorite, with several of -1000 or more, including three at a massive -10000.
Some context: A standard straight bet on a -10000 favorite requires a $10,000 bet to profit … $100.
Normally, on a 25-leg parlay, the odds — and therefore the payout — would be massive. In this instance, the odds were a mere +1662, or just shy of 17/1.
But no matter. Every single leg got there, though not without a sweat. In college football, for example:
- Texas A&M had to overcome a shocking 30-3 halftime deficit vs. South Carolina to squeak out a 31-30 victory.
- Michigan needed a final-second field goal to beat Northwestern 24-22.
- Georgia Tech also needed a field goal in the dying moments to beat Boston College 36-34.
Ultimately, it all came down to the Ravens-Browns game. And that was a sweat, as well. Baltimore got a Mark Andrews 35-yard touchdown run — yes, the tight end, who lined up under center on the play — to clinch a 23-16 victory.
For enduring all that, the bettor profited $9,972, for a total payout of $10,572.
From Aggies Agony to Ecstasy
Circling back to that incredible Texas A&M victory, the Aggies appeared dead in the water at halftime, getting blown out at home 30-3. This was a team that was a 17-point favorite on the spread.
A&M was -1000 or so on the moneyline, to just win the game, regardless of margin.
The public betting masses arguably love nothing more than a good team needing to make a seemingly impossible comeback. Think back to Super Bowl 51, when the Patriots trailed the Falcons 28-3. We all know what happened next.
Sportsbooks across the country and around Vegas saw a surge of bets on A&M moneyline at halftime and early in the third quarter. Depending on the book, the Aggies were as much as +1000 to make the improbable rally.
At Hard Rock Bet, A&M was +900 to win the game.
There were no reports of major wagers at that price. But countless people threw $10 or $20 or $50 on it.
A&M got all those tickets to the pay window. The Aggies scored 28 second-half points while shutting out South Carolina over the final two quarters to win 31-30.
Even I got involved, taking A&M +725 at halftime. So my next few visits to Chili’s will be courtesy of Circa Sports.
What a Score!
One of the lesser-publicized but most-fun prop bets is predicting the correct final score of a game. The odds can often be pretty long, so the payouts are pretty nice — if, of course, you nail the outcome.
A FanDuel Sportsbook customer did so in the Jets–Patriots game on Thursday night. The bettor put $5 on a final score of Patriots 27, Jets 14.
That’s exactly where the score landed. At odds of +12500 (125/1), that five bucks turned into $630. Not a bad three hours or so of work.
Here’s Hoping You Had It
As that correct final score bet shows, it’s not all about making big bets or cashing out huge on a 10-leg parlay. Which, just to be clear, is rare.
Sometimes it’s about putting 10 bucks on a single straight bet, backing a long shot or semi-long shot, and getting solid ROI.
For example, it’s no real surprise to see Bills QB Josh Allen score a touchdown. Or even two.
But how about three?
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Allen was +1800 to score three or more touchdowns in Sunday’s game against the Buccaneers. The reigning NFL MVP indeed hit paydirt three times, including the final two scores of the game, helping Buffalo to a 44-12 victory.
If you just put 10 bucks on that, then you’d be up $180. A hundred dollars would’ve padded your bank account by $1,800.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, Packers wideout Christian Watson was +2500 to score two or more touchdowns vs. the Giants. Watson recorded Green Bay’s first and last TDs in a 27-20 victory.
A $100 bet on that would’ve profited $2,500.
Bet Big, Win Small
There’s been a trend this season, particularly in college football, of big bettors placing moneyline wagers on hefty favorites. That happened again in college football Week 12 odds.
And it involved that wild South Carolina-Texas A&M game. Before kickoff, a DraftKings customer put $10,000 on A&M moneyline -950.
By halftime, that ticket was on a one-way trip to the mortuary. But as noted above, the Aggies rose from the dead to pull off the 31-30 victory.
That bettor can’t say it wasn’t a good sweat, while profiting $1,052.63 (total payout $11,052.63).
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Major wagers landed from Thursday through Sunday on NFL Week 11 odds. Among the notable big plays from the high-roller set:
- $150,000 Jets +12.5 vs. Patriots (DraftKings). Oof. New York just had to lose by 12 points or fewer, but fell one point short in a 27-14 setback. That’s a six-figure donation to the house.
- $100,000 Jets-Patriots Under 43.5 (BetMGM). At 41 points scored, this bet narrowly dodged disaster, profiting $90,909.09 (total payout $190,909.09).
- $100,000 Chiefs -2.5 vs. Broncos (Caesars Sports). Kansas City lost outright to Denver 22-19, on a final-second field goal. So that bettor took the L.
- $82,000 Lions +2.5 vs. Eagles (Caesars Sports). Detroit couldn’t even crack double-digit scoring in a 16-9 loss to Philly. So Caesars pocketed that money.
With only one of the above tickets getting to the pay window, it’s worth reminding that high-rollers have the ability to absorb such big-dollar damage.
You and me? Not so much.
Keep your wagers and your expectations reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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