The NFL playoffs without Patrick Mahomes?! It’s a very real possibility.
Entering Week 12, the Chiefs sit at 5-5. They’re in third place in the AFC West, currently losing head-to-head tiebreakers with the two teams ahead of them in their division: the Chargers (7-4) and the Broncos (9-2), who are 3½ games ahead of Kansas City. In the No. 9 seed in the AFC at large, the Chiefs have also lost head-to-head matchups with the three teams currently in the wild-card spots — the Chargers, Jaguars and Bills.
With seven weeks left in the regular season, Kansas City still has plenty of time. Mahomes & Co. could turn it on down the stretch and avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. The Chiefs still have a 57% chance of making the postseason, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
But they’ve put themselves in a difficult situation. Squeezing into the wild card is their best bet, as winning a 10th straight division title has become increasingly unlikely.
Here are five reasons why the Chiefs are at .500 this late in the season:
1. They’ve Lost The Clutch Gene
When the Chiefs got the ball back with 4:05 left against the Broncos on Sunday, with the game tied at 19, it looked like a victory for Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes with the ball in his hands down the stretch, armed with three timeouts, has been as sure of a bet as any the past few years. But Kansas City went three-and-out, punting the ball back to Denver after just 1:11 of game time. And it was the Broncos who put the nail in the coffin with a field goal as time expired.
That dropped the Chiefs to 0-5 in one-score games this season.
They just don’t find ways to win tightly-contested affairs. It’s a sharp contrast to last year, when Kansas City went 12-0 in games decided by eight points or fewer (including playoffs).
In fact, before this season, the Chiefs had won 17 straight one-score games dating back to Week 17 of the 2023 season. And there wasn’t a consistent formula — it was just Kansas City making enough plays, in whatever form it took, to win the games. Like a championship-caliber team does.
For whatever reason, the 2025 Chiefs haven’t had the same ability.
2. The Lack of a Pass Rush
Kansas City ranks fourth in points allowed, but Steve Spagnuolo’s defense hasn’t been particularly good affecting the opposing quarterback this season.
The Chiefs rank 25th in pressures (112), 22nd in pressure rate (33.2%) and 19th in sacks (22). When blitzing in particular — a Spagnuolo staple — the numbers are even worse. They have the ninth-highest blitz rate in the league (30.6%), according to Next Gen Stats, but sit last in the league in pressure rate (32.4%) when sending extra rushers to the quarterback, per ESPN. In 2024, they were ninth (44.0%).
That has contributed to Kansas City’s third-down woes (23rd in conversion rate allowed), and the ability of opponents to sustain drives. The Chiefs rank 25th in average time allowed per possession (3:05).
Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense isn’t having the same success this season on his signature blitz packages. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
3. Inconsistent Special Teams Play
The Chiefs vary between middling and below average in several metrics on special teams, which can have a major impact on winning or losing.
Kansas City ranks 31st in field goal made rate allowed, 30th in yards allowed per punt return, 29th in extra point made rate allowed and tied for 17th in FG made rate.
Only the Giants (5) have missed more extra points than the Chiefs (4), who had a PAT blocked in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss at Denver, giving Kansas City a 19-16 lead instead of a 20-16 advantage. The Broncos’ approach down the stretch would’ve likely been different if they had needed to reach the end zone as opposed to being able to settle for a field goal.
4. Mahomes’ missed opportunities
Mahomes had been playing at an MVP level until the past two games (both losses), during which he’s completed just 55.7% of his passes for 526 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions and an abysmal 69.9 passer rating.
This past week, he failed to capitalize on openings in the pass game against an elite Denver defense. He overshot Xavier Worthy on a would-be touchdown in the first quarter and missed Tyquan Thornton on a deep ball down the sideline two plays later. Mahomes also had an ill-advised pass picked off just outside the red zone in the third quarter, leading to the Broncos’ only touchdown of the game.
The two-time MVP went just 3-of-12 for 92 yards and the interception on passes over 10 air yards against Denver, according to Next Gen Stats.
5. One bad game from the O-line
To be clear, the Chiefs’ offensive line has largely been great in pass protection this season. Mahomes has faced the second-lowest pressure rate among qualified quarterbacks at 26.0%, according to Next Gen Stats.
But the unit’s worst game of the season played a key role in Kansas City’s Week 9 loss to Buffalo. Mahomes was pressured on 52.6% of his dropbacks, per NGS, the first time he’d faced pressure on the majority of his dropbacks in five years.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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