Some NFL teams, despite having winning records, just don’t live up to the number in the W column.
Then there are bad squads that are actually even worse in person than they are on paper.
Two of the teams I’m fading on this upcoming slate fit those bills.
Let’s check out my best bets for NFL Week 12.
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The Bears are 7-3 and sit atop the NFC North after winning seven of their last eight games.
They have won five games this season where they were trailing inside two minutes, which ties the most instances of this occurring for a team since 1970.
Despite the Bears’ record, they are 25th in DVOA, which breaks down to 16th on offense, 26th on defense and 27th on special teams.
They should feel fortunate to be 7-3, but Chicago is due for some regression. This style of winning is not sustainable.
Then there’s Pittsburgh.
I don’t know what style of play would describe the Steelers, other than Steelers’ voodoo, but they are once again in the exact same spot after 11 weeks of ball.
They are hovering just over .500, with an opportunity to win the division. And if they don’t achieve that, it’s likely they’ll be a wild-card team.
This weekend, they’ll probably be without quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but I’m not sure that matters all that much, which is a shocking thing to type. I was watching Pittsburgh play on Sunday and didn’t realize Mason Rudolph had entered the game at quarterback for about a quarter.
The Steelers are 19th in offensive efficiency and 10th on defense. The defense started the year slow but has played better lately. Being able to rush the passer will be valuable in this game, because when Caleb Williams is sacked three or more times, he’s only won three of 13 games all-time.
This is a difficult game to play, but the only side for me is the Steelers getting points.
Pittsburgh will be able to muck up this game with its rushing attack and its pass rush. The Bears’ offensive line is good, but this is a difficult game for any offense. In the end, I think Pittsburgh is a better team despite the Bears having a better record. The Steelers are more well-rounded. They are better on special teams and the Bears just can’t continue to win like this.
In this game, I don’t even need the Bears to lose to win the wager.
PICK: Steelers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
The Raiders’ offense is … offensive.
Las Vegas is 30th in DVOA, and it’s insulting to the teams ranked 31st and 32nd that they are behind it.
The Raiders have averaged 15.5 points per game. They are 25th in passing yards per game and only gain 81.4 on the ground, despite drafting Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 pick in April. The offensive line is abysmal. Las Vegas is dealing with injuries, but I’m not sure if that would change this matchup even if the Raiders were all healthy.
Geno Smith hasn’t been good at quarterback, L.V. have limited weapons and the play-calling has been unimaginative.
Make no mistake — the Browns offense is poor, too. But the defense is still outstanding.
Cleveland’s D is fifth in DVOA and Myles Garrett is going to win Defensive Player of the Year.
The Cleveland scoring average per game isn’t great, but it’s easily explainable. When a defense like the Browns’ — or any defense that’s good — doesn’t get support from the offense, it tends to crumble later in games. Against the Raiders, I’d expect the Browns’ offense to have more success, which would allow the defense to have more time on the bench and also give it more enthusiasm.
I don’t think the Raiders are scoring much in this game.
PICK: Raiders Team Total Under 19.5 points scored
The Giants are in disarray.
They’ve fired their coach, and they are currently on their third-string quarterback for now. Their first-round pick was benched to start the Packers game because he missed a walk-through. And they just lost again.
The best part of this Giants team is its defensive line, but it faces a Detroit offensive line that’s one of the best in the league. The Giants’ defense also hasn’t benefited from that defensive line because it is 28th in defensive DVOA.
On the other side is Detroit. Truthfully, I don’t know what to make of the Lions.
One week they look fantastic and the next week they are awful. After losing to the Eagles 16-9, Week 12 should be one where they look fantastic. I just don’t see how the Giants stop a Detroit offense that’s motivated to improve after last weekend.
We saw the Lions score over 40 points against the Commanders. They have scored 34 points or more in five of their six wins. When they win, they win big. If their offense is running hot, the Giants can not keep up.
PICK: Lions (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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