Saturday’s rivalry game between undefeated No. 1 Ohio State and No. 15 Michigan is about more than just bragging rights. The Buckeyes have been atop the AP poll for 13 consecutive weeks, and the defending College Football Playoff champs are in line to appear in the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis, against No. 2 Indiana. Michigan, though, is 7-1 in the Big Ten, tied for second with Oregon, and still have a shot at heading to Indianapolis instead of Ohio State.
The Big Ten has noticed as much, releasing a list of potential tiebreaker scenarios that could all theoretically play out – and they all begin with a Michigan win in Ann Arbor on Saturday.
1. Michigan defeats Ohio State; Indiana defeats Purdue; Washington defeats Oregon
A Michigan win against Ohio State makes both teams 8-1 in Big Ten games, and Michigan, as the head-to-head victor, would hold the tiebreaker between the two. In this scenario, Indiana continues on, likely as the new No. 1 in both the conference and college football, while Oregon would now be 7-2 in conference play, as they already lost to Indiana on Oct. 11. This takes them out of the running for Dec. 6’s Big Ten Championship game when paired with Michigan’s W, setting up Indiana vs. Michigan.
Ohio State vs. Michigan is obviously getting a lot of the attention in terms of difficulty of opponent here for both sides – Purdue hasn’t won a Big Ten matchup yet, and is 2-9 overall, so that checks out – but Washington is 8-3 and was ranked No. 24 in the nation in the Nov. 3 poll, and, while not in the top 25 any longer, is still receiving votes. An upset of Oregon by Washington on Saturday is far more realistic than a Purdue win over Indiana on Friday night.
2. Michigan defeats Ohio State; Purdue defeats Indiana; Oregon defeats Washington
Despite the unlikelihood of a Boilermakers’ win against the Hoosiers, as far as tiebreakers go, it’s in play. And it is also required if Oregon takes care of Washington, even if Michigan does their part and takes down Ohio State.
In this situation, Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and Indiana would all be 8-1, meaning there was a four-way tie atop the conference. Except tiebreakers matter, and Indiana already defeated Oregon once, while Michigan would have bested Ohio State. That leaves the Big Ten Championship as Michigan vs. Indiana in this hypothetical.
3. Michigan defeats Ohio State; Purdue defeats Indiana; Washington defeats Oregon
Total chaos: what if all three games were upsets? The result would be Michigan vs. Ohio State, again, in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship. Oregon would be 7-2 in conference play, while Indiana would be out of the picture for a different reason than the other tiebreakers mentioned. There is no head-to-head tiebreaker for Indiana and Ohio State, so the tiebreaker would move to step 2, where Ohio State and Michigan would be 2-0 against common opponents Purdue and Wisconsin, whereas Indiana would be just 1-1 thanks to losing to the Boilermakers.
It’s the least-likely scenario, but if you love either chaos or are a Michigan fan looking to inflict the most possible psycholical damage on your rivals, well. There’s one clear scenario to root for among these three options.
Michigan and Ohio State face off at 12 p.m. on FOX on Saturday, Nov. 29.
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